First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- MLB on FOX, Rays/Phillies (Game 3). Prediction: 7.2. Final rating: 6.1. Thanks in part to a rain delay that pushed the start of the game to 10 PM ET, Game 3 between the Phillies and Rays was easily the lowest rated, least viewed World Series game on record. The 6.1 rating and 9.8 million viewers for the Phillies’ victory was down 28% and 30% from an 8.5 with 14.1 million for Red Sox/Rockies Game 3 last year.
- MLB on FOX, Rays/Phillies (Game 4). Prediction: 10.3. Final rating: 9.3. The Phillies’ Game 4 win over the Rays was the lowest rated World Series game ever on a Sunday. Previously, no Sunday World Series game had ever drawn less than an 11.0 rating. The 9.3 was the second-highest rating of the series, behind the 9.6 rating for Game 5.
- College football on ABC, Penn State/Ohio State. Prediction: 4.4. Final rating: 6.4. College football drew strong numbers on ABC last Saturday. The 6.4 final rating for Penn State/Ohio State last Saturday night was up 39% from a 4.6 for the same matchup in ’07. Meanwhile, early game coverage drew a strong 5.1 rating, up 55% from a 3.3 for similar coverage last year.
- NASCAR on ABC, Pep Boys Auto 500. Prediction: 3.9. Final rating: 3.6. The 3.6 rating for the Pep Boys Auto 500 was off 10% from a 4.0 for the same race last year.
- NFL on FOX, Giants/Steelers. Prediction: 13.9. Final rating: 13.8. The 13.8 rating for this marquee NFL matchup was up 5% from a 13.1 for Washington/New England in ’07. Factoring in the 8.8 rating for early game coverage on the network, FOX drew an 11.3 rating for its NFL doubleheader last Sunday, up 15% from a 9.8 last year.
This week’s predictions:
- SEC on CBS, Georgia/Florida, 3:30 PM Saturday — This Top 10 battle of SEC rivals should draw strong numbers on Saturday afternoon. Prediction: 4.2.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Texas/Texas Tech, 8 PM Saturday — Look for the ratings for the third marquee Big 12 matchup of the season to fall just short of the 5.4 for Texas/Oklahoma and the 5.1 for Texas/Oklahoma State. Prediction: 4.8.
- NFL on FOX, Cowboys/Giants, 4:15 PM Sunday — America’s team takes on the Super Bowl Champions in a game that should draw the highest ratings of the season. Last year, two regular season meetings between the Cowboys and Giants drew ratings of 11.6 (9/9 NBC) and 15.6 (11/11 FOX). Prediction: 15.3.
- Sunday Night Football, Patriots/Colts, 8:15 PM Sunday — In past years, this was the marquee matchup of the NFL season. Last year’s meeting between the teams drew a 20.1 rating on CBS. With the Patriots having two losses and the Colts under .500, expect more pedestrian numbers this time around. Prediction: 11.1.
- NASCAR on ABC, Dickies 500, 3:30 PM Sunday — So far this season, seven NASCAR races on ABC are averaging a 3.7 rating on ABC, down 3% from a 3.8 for the seven comparable races last year. The past three races have each dropped by double digits from last year. Will the Dickies 500 bring more of the same? Last year’s race drew a 3.7. Prediction: 3.4.
