The 2009 World Series has it all — two big market teams, the defending champions, and arguably the most recognizable team in American sports.
Not surprisingly, the Phillies/Yankees series has FOX and MLB in a positive state of mind. FOX Sports executive producer Ed Goren says the series will have “the greatest year-to-year improvement in ratings in World Series history.”
Since ’68, the largest year-to-year jump in World Series ratings is 27% — for the ’90 and ’01 World Series. A 27% rise this year would equal at least a 10.7 average rating for the World Series, certainly an achievable goal. Still, a 10.7 average rating would rank as the fourth-lowest of all time.
Some have the series drawing even better numbers. A Reuters article projects that the series “is likely to top 2003,” when Yankees/Marlins averaged a 12.8 rating. The same article paraphrases Horizon Media’s Brad Adgate as saying that viewership for the series “may finish in the 21 million to 22 million range.”
Only three World Series in the decade have managed to average at least 20 million viewers, and none since ’04.
Despite the positive vibes, the World Series may not be as big of a ratings powerhouse as some may expect.
For one, the Yankees are not as big of a draw nationally as they have been in recent years. The Yankees/Twins ALDS produced ratings 19% lower than the Yankees’ ’07 LDS matchup against the Indians. The Yankees/Angels ALCS, while up from last year, was down 12% from Indians/Red Sox in ’07 (which went 7 games) and ranked as the 5th-least viewed LCS ever on broadcast.
And the Yankees’ presence is not necessarily a guarantee of big ratings. The ’98 Yankees/Padres series set a record low at the time — which was then broken by the ’00 Yankees/Mets series.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have proven in back-to-back years that big markets do not necessarily equal big ratings. In each of the last two years, the #4 market Phillies and the #2 market Dodgers have met in the NLCS — and those two series rank as the 2nd and 3rd least viewed LCS ever (on broadcast or cable). Games 3 and 4 of this year’s Phillies/Dodgers NLCS rank as two of the five lowest rated LCS telecasts ever in primetime.
Additionally, the Phillies’ victory last year (against the #13 market Rays) famously resulted in the lowest ratings ever for the World Series.
Whether ratings exceed or fall below expectations, one thing seems certain — Phillies/Yankees will draw higher ratings than Phillies/Rays. The 8.4 average rating for Phillies/Rays was not only the lowest in World Series history, it was the lowest by a mile. Prior to last year, no World Series had ever drawn below a 10.0 rating — making Phillies/Rays, for now at least, an anomaly.
In other words, the bar has been set comfortably low for FOX. And much like ABC was able to brag about a 50% increase for Celtics/Lakers in ’08 — even though the 9.3 rating for the series was below even Lakers/Nets in ’02 — look for FOX to have much to brag about over the next week, almost regardless of the numbers.
Sources: The Hollywood Reporter, MLB.com
