Weekend Ratings Predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NCAA BB (M)	Butler/Kansas St.	CBS	5.0	4.8
Butler’s win over Kansas St. last Saturday drew a 4.8 final rating on CBS, down 11% from Connecticut/Missouri last year, and tied as the lowest rated Elite Eight game since ’00.
NCAA BB (M)	West Virginia/Kentucky	CBS	6.8	7.3
CBS drew a 7.3 final rating for West Virginia/Kentucky last Saturday night, up 11% from Villanova/Pittsburgh last year, and up 12% from North Carolina/Louisville in ’08.
NCAA BB (M)	Tennessee/Michigan St.	CBS	5.3	6.5
Michigan State’s close win over Tennessee last Sunday drew a 6.5 final rating on CBS, up 27% from Michigan St./Louisville last year, and up 29% from Memphis/Texas two years ago.
NCAA BB (M)	Baylor/Duke	CBS	7.2	8.7
Last Sunday’s Baylor/Duke game drew an 8.7 final rating on CBS, up 28% from North Carolina/Oklahoma last year (6.8), and tied as the highest rated NCAA Tournament game outside of the Final Four since 2005.
Golf (M)	Arnold Palmer Invitational, Third Round	NBC	1.1	1.3
Golf (M)	Arnold Palmer Invitational, Final Round	NBC	1.9	1.5*
Final round coverage of the Arnold Palmer Invitational drew a 1.5 final rating on NBC last Sunday, down 66% from last year, and the lowest rating since at least ’98. Keep in mind Sunday’s final round was suspended due to rain. Saturday’s third round coverage drew a 1.3, down 48%.
NBA	Spurs/Celtics	ESPN	1.3	1.0
ESPN drew a 1.0 U.S. rating for the Spurs’ win over the Celtics last Sunday, down 9% from Spurs/Hornets on the network last year (1.1).
NASCAR	Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500	FOX	4.7	3.1*
Rainout coverage of the Goody’s Fast Pain Relief 500 drew a 3.1 final rating on FOX, the highest rating of the weekend for any sporting event on broadcast, excluding the NCAA Tournament.
IRL	Honda Grand Prix of St. Petersburg	ABC	0.7	0.6*
Rainout coverage of the Honda Grand Prix of St. Petersburg drew a 0.6 final rating on ABC last Sunday.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Date/Time	Net	Prediction
NCAA BB (M)	Michigan St./Butler	6 PM Saturday	CBS	7.5
The 2010 Men’s Final Four begins with last year’s finalist taking on this year’s upstart. Though Butler may qualify as a Cinderella, they have not necessarily captured the nation’s imagination. Their win over Kansas St. was not only the lowest rated of the four Elite Eight games, it was also the only one of the four to have a decline in ratings. Last year, Michigan St./Connecticut drew a 7.8 rating, up from a 7.2 the previous year. Expect a small decline this year.
NCAA BB (M)	West Virginia/Duke	8:30 PM Saturday	CBS	9.6
Duke is in the Final Four for the first time since 2004. The last three times the Blue Devils have played in the National Semifinal (’99, ’01 and ’04), their game has drawn at least a 10.0 rating. To put that in perspective, no National Semifinal has drawn more than a 9.1 rating since 2005. Last year, North Carolina/Villanova drew an 8.5, down from an 8.8 the previous year.
NCAA BB (W)	Stanford/Oklahoma	7 PM Sunday	ESPN	1.7
The Women’s Final Four kicks off with the undercard between Stanford and Oklahoma. With Stanford coming off of a memorable win over Xavier in the Elite Eight, there might be some additional interest in this matchup. However, do not expect the ratings to improve much over last year’s 1.6 for Louisville/Oklahoma.
NCAA BB (W)	Connecticut/Baylor	9:30 PM Sunday	ESPN	2.7
The highest profile team in women’s basketball, Connecticut, takes on the highest profile player, Baylor’s Brittney Griner. These are the only two women’s teams the average sports fan has heard of all season, and the ratings should reflect some added interest from casual fans. Last year’s Connecticut/Stanford game drew a 1.7 rating; Tennessee/LSU two years ago drew a 2.4.
MLB	Yankees/Red Sox	8 PM Sunday	ESPN2	3.4
The 2010 Major League Baseball season begins with the biggest rivalry in the sport. As much as fans complain about seeing the Yankees and Red Sox on national television, the fact is that the teams’ head-to-head matchups attract the biggest regular season audiences. The Yankees and Red Sox played on Sunday Night Baseball three times last season, and those three games tied as the highest rated of the entire season (3.0 rating each). Considering that Opening Night games usually do very well regardless of the matchup, expect even larger numbers for Sunday’s clash. Last year’s Phillies/Braves game drew a 2.1; Braves/Nationals in ’08 drew a 2.4.
NBA	Cavaliers/Celtics	1 PM Sunday	ABC	2.1
The NBA returns to ABC with another matchup between the Cavaliers and Celtics. Though the Celtics have fallen on hard times, they can still pull in solid numbers — especially against arguably the biggest individual draw in the NBA, LeBron James. The last meeting between the teams drew a healthy 2.4 rating on ABC. Though that number will be hard to match in an earlier timeslot, look for Sunday’s rematch to top the 1.9 rating Spurs/Cavaliers drew last year.
NBA	Spurs/Lakers	3:30 PM Sunday	ABC	3.4
The Spurs have been playing well against tough competition lately. On Sunday, they take on their heated rivals from the #2 television market, the defending champion Lakers. Sunday’s game will have very little in the way of competition, with only the Tiger-less PGA Tour (NBC) and the traditionally low-rated LPGA (CBS) taking place during its timeslot. With that in mind, the ratings should vault past last year’s 1.9 for Suns/Mavericks.
NHL	Red Wings/Flyers	12:30 PM Sunday	NBC	0.8
Though the Red Wings and Flyers are near the bottom of the playoff standings, expect the ratings for their Sunday afternoon clash to comfortably surpass the 0.5 Rangers/Bruins drew two weeks ago. Last year’s Wild/Red Wings game drew a 0.7.
Golf (M)	Shell Houston Open, Third Round	1 PM Saturday	NBC	1.1
Golf (M)	Shell Houston Open, Final Round	3 PM Sunday	NBC	1.7
As the last tournament before Tiger Woods returns to golf, this week’s Shell Houston Open is a proverbial calm before the storm — or circus. Last year, the tournament drew a 1.5 rating on Saturday and a 2.3 on Sunday.
Golf (W)	Kraft Nabisco Championship, Final Round	3 PM Sunday	CBS	0.7
The LPGA makes its 2010 debut on broadcast television with the final round of the Kraft Nabisco Championship. The event has drawn a 0.8 rating in each of the last two years.
Other	Guru of Go	4 PM Saturday	ABC	1.2
ESPN Sports Saturday debuts with the newest ESPN 30 For 30 documentary, Guru of Go, about the 1990 Loyola Marymount team. While ESPN’s 30 For 30 documentaries have done fairly well for cable (the most recent episode drew a 1.3 U.S. rating), a good rating for cable is not necessarily a good rating for broadcast. And opposite the Final Four pregame show on CBS, do not expect a particuarly huge audience to tune in.