Weekend Ratings Predictions

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
World Cup	USA/Ghana	ABC	6.5	8.5
Ghana’s win over Team USA drew an 8.5 final rating on ABC last Saturday, the third-highest rating ever for a Men’s World Cup match on a single network. By comparison, USA/England drew a 7.4 on ABC two weeks earlier.
World Cup	Argentina/Mexico	ABC	2.7	3.4
ABC drew a 3.4 final rating for Argentina/Mexico last Sunday, the network’s highest rating so far for a World Cup match that did not involve Team USA.
MLB	Yankees/Dodgers (74%), Cubs/White Sox (16%) or Red Sox/Giants (9%)	FOX	3.1	2.2
In primetime for the second time this season, regional MLB action on FOX drew a 2.2 final rating last Saturday — up 10% from afternoon coverage last year (2.0), but down 19% from the first primetime telecast of the season on May 22 (2.7).
NASCAR	Lenox Industrial Tools 301	TNT	3.0	3.0
Last Sunday’s Lenox Industrial Tools 301 drew a 3.0 U.S. rating on TNT, down 14% from last year, down 12% from 2008 and the lowest rating for the race since at least ’99.
Golf (M)	Travelers Championship, Third Round	CBS	0.9	0.8
Golf (M)	Travelers Championship, Final Round	CBS	1.4	1.7
Coverage of the PGA Travelers Championship drew a 0.8 final rating on Saturday, down 27% from last year, and a 1.7 on Sunday, up 6%.
Tennis	Wimbledon, early rounds	NBC	1.2	1.2
Tennis	Wimbledon, early rounds	NBC	1.0	1.0
Wimbledon coverage drew a 1.2 final rating on NBC last Saturday, up 20% from last year (1.0). Meanwhile, Sunday’s telecast drew a 1.0, up 25%.
Soccer	Sounders/Union	ESPN2	0.2	0.2
Last Sunday’s Sounders/Union MLS match on ESPN2 drew a 0.2 U.S. rating.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
World Cup	Germany/Argentina	10 AM Saturday	ABC	3.7
The 2010 FIFA World Cup continues on ABC, with Team USA on the sidelines. Look for Saturday morning’s Germany/Argentina match to draw solid numbers; in the same timeslot last week, Uruguay/South Korea drew a 2.2 on ESPN. In 2006, ABC drew a 3.3 for the Portugal/England quarterfinal in a comparable timeslot — however, that rating includes pre-match coverage.
World Cup	Paraguay/Spain	2:30 PM Saturday	ABC	3.9
Paraguay/Spain will not come close to last Saturday’s World Cup match on ABC — USA/Ghana. Still, look for the match to draw the network’s highest non-USA rating of the World Cup.
Tennis	Wimbledon, Women’s Final	9 AM Saturday	NBC	1.8
Tennis	Wimbledon, Men’s Final	9 AM Sunday	NBC	2.0
Even the presence of two stars (Serena Williams and Rafael Nadal) is unlikely to overcome the presence of two complete unknowns (Vera Zvonareva and Tom?? Berdych). Last year’s S. Williams/V. Williams Women’s Final drew a 2.3; last year’s Federer/Roddick Men’s Final drew a 3.8.
MLB	Mets/Nationals (77%), Marlins/Braves (14%) or Rays/Twins (8%)	4 PM Saturday	FOX	2.0
Stephen Strasburg makes his network television debut on Saturday, as most of the country will see his Nationals face the Mets. It’s difficult to imagine a Strasburg afternoon game drawing a higher rating than last week’s Yankees/Dodgers primetime telecast (2.2), especially since Strasburg games have not been particularly big draws for ESPN or TBS. That said, Saturday’s telecast should vault ahead of last year’s comparable coverage — which featured Dodgers/Padres and drew a 1.4 rating.
Golf (M)	AT&T National, Third Round	3 PM Saturday	CBS	1.7
Golf (M)	AT&T National, Final Round	2 PM Sunday	CBS	2.4
Tiger Woods‘ drawing power as a lightning rod has diminished dramatically since The Masters. However, his drawing power as a golfer is presumably as strong as ever. One problem: Woods only barely made the cut for this week’s AT&T National, and if he remains out of contention, ratings should plummet from last year (2.3 on Saturday, 4.2 on Sunday).
NASCAR	Coke Zero 400	7:30 PM Saturday	TNT	3.2
Perhaps Dale Earnhardt Jr.‘s win in the Nationwide Series will put a jolt into the slumping numbers for the Sprint Cup. So far this season, 11 of the 15 regularly scheduled NASCAR races have had a decline in ratings, including every race on TNT. Last year’s Coke Zero 400 drew a 3.1 U.S. rating, down 18% from the previous year (3.8) and the lowest rating for the race since at least ’98.
IndyCar	Camping World Grand Prix	3:30 PM Sunday	ABC	0.8
The IndyCar Series returns to ABC with the Camping World Grand Prix. So far, ratings have not been overly impressive for IndyCar on ABC, with the network’s first race of the season (the RoadRunner Turbo Indy 300 on May 1) drawing a 0.7 rating — on par with Formula 1 telecasts on FOX — and its crown jewel (the Indianapolis 500) setting a record low with a 3.6. Last year’s Camping World Grand Prix drew a 0.9 rating.
MLS	Sounders/Galaxy	10:30 PM Sunday	ESPN2	0.3
ESPN touted the "excitement surrounding" the World Cup when it added Sunday’s Sounders/Galaxy MLS match to its schedule — but if last Sunday’s Sounders/Union telecast is any indication, the World Cup has not yet had a major effect on the numbers. That match drew a 0.2 U.S. rating 331,000 viewers, above the season average, but down in viewership from a match on the comparable date last year (albeit in a later timeslot). With World Cup hero Landon Donovan expected to play in Sunday’s match, will any World Cup momentum materialize?
WNBA	Storm/Sparks	5 PM Saturday	ESPN2	0.2
ESPN2 will air two Seattle/Los Angeles telecasts over the weekend — the aforementioned MLS match on Sunday, and a WNBA game on Saturday. Which one will do better in the ratings? The most recent WNBA telecast on ESPN2 (Fever/Mystics on Tuesday night) drew a 0.2 U.S. rating.