Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including golf’s PGA Championship, NASCAR’s Carfax 400 and regional MLB action on FOX.
First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Bengals/Cowboys | NBC |
6.0
|
6.8
|
| The NFL Hall of Fame Game drew a 6.8 final rating on NBC last Sunday night, up 39% from last year (4.9), up 45% from 2008 (4.7) and tied as the highest rating for the game since 2004. | ||||
| NFL | Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony | ESPN |
0.7
|
1.1
|
| ESPN drew a 1.1 U.S. rating for last Saturday’s Pro Football Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony, up a whopping 83% from last year (0.6) and up 57% from 2008 (0.7). | ||||
| MLB | Red Sox/Yankees (86%) or Rangers/Athletics (13%) | FOX |
2.7
|
2.1
|
| Regional MLB action featuring Red Sox/Yankees drew a 2.1 final rating on FOX last Saturday, down 22% from the same matchup on the comparable weekend last year (2.7), and tied as the lowest rating for a Red Sox/Yankees telecast on the network since at least 2001. | ||||
| MLB | Red Sox/Yankees | ESPN |
2.4
|
2.3
|
| Sunday night’s Red Sox/Yankees matchup drew a 2.3 U.S. rating on ESPN, down 23% from the same matchup last year (3.0), but the network’s highest MLB rating of the season. | ||||
| NASCAR | Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen | ESPN |
3.4
|
3.2
|
| Last Sunday’s NASCAR Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen drew a 3.2 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 7% from 2008, the last year the race ran as scheduled. | ||||
| Golf (M) | Bridgestone Invitational, Third Round | CBS |
1.6
|
1.4
|
| Bridgestone Invitational, Final Round |
2.4
|
2.1
|
||
| Ratings for the Bridgestone Invitational dropped 33% on Saturday and 51% on Sunday. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golf (M) | PGA Championship, Third Round | 11 AM Saturday | TNT | 1.0 |
| 2 PM Saturday | CBS | 3.3 | ||
| Last year’s PGA Championship benefited both from Tiger Woods being in contention and from the momentum generated by Woods’ highly rated wins earlier in the summer. This year’s event has no such momentum, thanks in part to Woods’ recent struggles. While it would likely take a Woods victory for this year’s ratings to match or surpass last year, a decent performance by the embattled golfer could at least help the season’s final major avoid the massive declines incurred by some recent tournaments. Last year’s third round drew a 4.3 rating on CBS and a 1.3 on TNT. | ||||
| Golf (M) | PGA Championship, Final Round | 11 AM Sunday | TNT |
1.2
|
| 2 PM Sunday | CBS |
4.7
|
||
| Final round coverage of the PGA Championship has drawn at least a 6.0 rating in three of the last four years — the lone exception being 2008, when Tiger Woods did not play and the event aired opposite the Olympics (2.8). This year’s final round will be hard pressed to hit that level, and will almost certainly drop from last year (6.6 on CBS, 1.6 on TNT) — when Woods entered the day atop the leaderboard and finished second behind Y.E. Yang. | ||||
| NASCAR | Carfax 400 | 1 PM Sunday | ESPN |
3.3
|
| Last year’s Carfax 400 (3.5) was one of the few NASCAR races to have an improvement in ratings from the previous year. Will that positive trend continue for this year’s race? | ||||
| MLB | Cubs/Cardinals (51%), Orioles/Rays (26%) or Padres/Giants (22%) | 4 PM Saturday | FOX |
1.7
|
| Baseball on FOX has drawn at least a 2.0 rating in three of the past five weeks, including the last two. Even if this week’s telecast does not reach that mark, the numbers should at least match last year’s 1.6 for coverage featuring Phillies/Braves. | ||||
| Gym. | Visa Championships | 8 PM Saturday | NBC |
1.6
|
| NBC drew a 1.7 rating for Saturday night coverage of the Visa Gymnastics Championships both last year and in 2007 — the last two non-Olympic years. Expect simliar numbers this year. | ||||
