New Year's Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for sporting events over New Year’s weekend, including Week 17 of the NFL season, New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day college football bowl games, the NHL’s Winter Classic, and college basketball action.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Cowboys/Cardinals	NFLN	4.5	3.8
The Cardinals’ win over the Cowboys earned a 3.8 U.S. rating on NFL Network Christmas night, up 15% from last year’s Christmas game on the network.
NFL	Jets/Bears, BAL/CLE, NE/BUF, TEN/KC, IND/OAK, SD/CIN or HOU/DEN	CBS	11.2	—
Final ratings for last week’s NFL singleheader window on CBS were not available at the time of this post. Those numbers will be included with next week’s set of predictions.
NFL	49ers/Rams (61%), WSH/JAX (23%) or DET/MIA (6%)	FOX	8.3	—
Final ratings for last week’s early NFL window on FOX were not available at the time of this post. Those numbers will be included with next week’s set of predictions.
NFL	Giants/Packers (90%) or SEA/TB (6%)	FOX	15.5	13.6
FOX earned a 13.6 final rating for the Week 16 NFL national window, down 17% from last year, but up 15% from 2008.
NFL	Vikings/Eagles	NBC	12.9	13.8
Sunday’s Vikings/Eagles game was postponed to Tuesday night due to inclement weather. The Tuesday night telecast drew a 13.8 rating, up 27% from last year and up 20% from 2008.
NCAA FB	Hawaii Bowl (#24 HI/TUL)	ESPN	1.8	2.1
Tulsa’s blowout win in the Hawaii Bowl drew a 2.1 U.S. rating on ESPN Christmas Eve, up 24% from last year, down 19% from 2008, and the second-highest rating in the history of the eight-year-old bowl.
NCAA FB	Little Caesars Bowl (FIU/TOL)	ESPN	1.3	1.4
Even without competition from Sunday Night Football, the Little Caesars Bowl drew a 1.4 U.S. rating on ESPN Sunday night, down 46% from last year.
NBA	Bulls/Knicks	ESPN	2.2	2.3
The Knicks’ win over the Bulls Christmas Day earned a 2.3 U.S. rating on ESPN, up 35% from last year’s Heat/Knicks matchup.
NBA	Celtics/Magic	ABC	3.6	4.6
ABC earned a 4.6 rating for Celtics/Magic on Christmas Day, according to Nielsen fast-nationals, up 39% from last year, and up 44% from 2008.
NBA	Heat/Lakers	ABC	6.5	6.4
The marquee Heat/Lakers Christmas Day game drew a 6.4 rating on ABC, according to Nielsen fast-nationals, up 45% from last year, up 21% from 2008, and tied as the third-highest regular season NBA rating on any network since the 1998-99 lockout.
NBA	Nuggets/Thunder	ESPN	1.4	1.2
Nuggets/Thunder, the first game of ESPN’s Christmas night doubleheader, drew a 1.2 U.S. rating. Ratings for last year’s comparable Clippers/Suns game were unavailable.
NBA	Trail Blazers/Warriors	ESPN	0.9	1.1
The final game of the NBA’s Christmas Day slate, between the Blazers and the sub-.500 Warriors, earned a 1.1 U.S. rating on ESPN. Ratings for last year’s comparable Nuggets/Blazers game were not available.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Buccaneers/Saints (70%), CAR/ATL (11%) or MIN/DET (7%)	1 PM Sunday	FOX	10.2
FOX begins its Week 17 slate with some crucial NFC South matchups. In the main game, the Buccaneers can clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Saints, while the Saints can clinch the NFC South with a win and a Falcons loss. The undercard features the Falcons trying to clinch the NFC South with a win against the lowly Panthers. Last year, FOX earned a 9.6 rating for the early Week 17 window.
NFL	Bears/Packers (56%), NYG/WSH (18%), DAL/PHI (14%) or ARI/SF (7%)	4:15 PM Sunday	FOX	15.2
Later Sunday, FOX offers another pair of crucial matchups. The Packers can clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Bears in the main game, while the Giants can clinch with a win against Washington and a Packers loss. Last year’s comparable game featured Cowboys/Eagles and drew a hefty 15.2.
NFL	Steelers/Browns, CIN/BAL, BUF/NYJ, MIA/NE or OAK/KC	1 PM Sunday	CBS	8.3
All the teams in the CBS early window have either clinched playoff berths or have been mathematically eliminated. Still, the telecast has some playoff implications, as the Steelers can clinch the AFC North with a win against Cleveland, and the Ravens can clinch the division with a win and a Steelers loss. That may not be enough drama for the numbers to match last year’s 11.2.
NFL	Titans/Colts, JAX/HOU or SD/DEN	4:15 PM Sunday	CBS	10.5
The AFC South takes center stage in the CBS late window. The Colts can clinch the division — and a playoff berth — with a win or tie against the Titans or a Jaguars loss or tie against the Texans. Expect the numbers to rise well above last year’s 7.7.
NFL	Rams/Seahawks	8:20 PM Sunday	NBC	11.3
The final game of the NFL season features a win-and-you’re-in battle atop the NFC West. The winner of Rams/Seahawks will make the playoffs, but with both teams under .500, will that be enough to attract viewers? Last year’s regular season finale between the Jets and Bengals drew a 10.0.
College Football	Sun Bowl (ND/MIA)	2 PM Friday	CBS	4.0
One of only two bowl games that will not air on ESPN, the New Year’s Eve Sun Bowl features big-name college football programs Notre Dame and Miami. While neither team is anywhere near their previous stature, name recognition alone should lead to a big increase for CBS. Last year’s Sun Bowl drew a 3.3; the 2008 edition drew a 2.2.
College Football	Liberty Bowl (UGA/#25 UCF)	3:30 PM Friday	ESPN	2.7
Last year’s Arkansas/ECU Liberty Bowl scored a hefty 3.8 U.S. rating on ESPN, up from a 2.3 the year before. Do not expect similar numbers for this year’s Georgia/UCF game, though the numbers should still remain above ’08.
College Football	Chick-fil-A Bowl (#20 SC/#23 FSU)	7:30 PM Friday	ESPN	4.1
The Chick-fil-A Bowl pits Steve Spurrier and South Carolina against Florida State, in a battle of ranked teams. Expect ratings to come close to, if not surpass, last year’s 4.2.
College Fooball	Capital One Bowl (#16 ALA/#9 MSU)	1 PM Saturday	ESPN	5.5
The Capital One Bowl has been the top non-BCS bowls in recent years, even outdrawing the Orange Bowl in 2008 and 2009. The game has topped a 6.0 rating in each of the past three seasons, peaking with a massive 9.1 in 2008. With a move from broadcast to cable, the game will likely draw one of its lowest ratings in recent memory — even with a stellar matchup between Alabama and Michigan State. That said, the game should remain among the highest rated of the bowl season.
College Football	Outback Bowl (UF/PSU)	1 PM Saturday	ABC	5.0
The Outback Bowl should have a substantial increase in ratings this year, and not only because the matchup pits Florida and outgoing coach Urban Meyer against Penn State and Joe Paterno. After years of airing at 11 AM on ESPN, the game not only gets a 1 PM timeslot this year, but exposure on broadcast network ABC. Last year’s game drew an already-strong 3.5 rating.
College Football	Rose Bowl (#5 WISC/#3 TCU)	5 PM Saturday	ESPN	9.6
The 2011 Rose Bowl will be the very first BCS bowl on cable television. The game will set record highs for non-NFL programming on ESPN (records that will surely fall days later with the National Championship Game), but it may also set another kind of record — the lowest rating ever for the Rose Bowl. The current record low is a 10.8 rating, set in 1989. Though that 10.8 may be low for the Rose Bowl, it’s extremely high for sports programming on cable; just six of the 84 Monday Night Football games on ESPN have either matched or surpassed that number. It seems unlikely that ESPN will be able to even come close to a 10.8 for this year’s game, which lacks superstar teams like Ohio State and USC, and probably would have been in danger of setting a record low even on ABC.
College Football	Fiesta Bowl (CONN/#7 OK)	8:30 PM Saturday	ESPN	6.3
Like the Rose Bowl, this year’s Fiesta Bowl would have been in danger of setting record lows even if it had remained on broadcast. The matchup of unranked Connecticut against #7 Oklahoma is a virtual lock to have a significant decline from last year’s 8.2 for Boise State/TCU, and could potentially approach the Fiesta Bowl record low of 5.8 set back in 1997. The all-time BCS low is a 5.4 for the 2009 Orange Bowl.
College Basketball	#11 Kentucky/#22 Louisville	12 PM Friday	CBS	1.7
CBS offers viewers a New Year’s Eve rivalry game between Kentucky and Louisville. Last year’s game between the teams drew a 1.9 on CBS on January 2. Expect slightly lower numbers this time around.
NHL	Capitals/Penguins (from Heinz Field)	1 PM Saturday	NBC	2.6
The NHL Winter Classic returns, with arguably its most-hyped matchup yet. While the venue (Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field) is not nearly as interesting as previous locations such as Fenway Park or Wrigley Field, the matchup of the Penguins’ Sidney Crosby and the Capitals’ Alex Ovechkin is arguably the best in the four-year history of the event. HBO’s 24/7 series on the teams should also aid in ginning up interest for the game. Last year’s Winter Classic drew a 2.1; the highest rating for the Winter Classic was a 2.5 (2009).

(NBA and college football ratings from ESPN; NFL Network rating from Sports Business Daily; NFL national window rating from Sitcoms Online; Week 17 NFL playoff scenarios from Fanhouse.com)