Weekend Ratings Predictions

Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including Week 13 of the NFL season, college football’s championship Saturday, and college basketball action.

First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport	Game/Event	Net	Prediction	Rating
NFL	Patriots/Lions	CBS	11.6	13.4
The Patriots’ win over the Lions drew a 13.4 final rating on CBS Thanksgiving Day, up 21% from last year.
NFL	Saints/Cowboys	CBS	11.9	13.9
Over on FOX, Saints/Cowboys drew a 13.9 final rating, up 20% from last year. The game was the most-viewed NFL telecast of the season (31.874 mil).
NFL	Bengals/Jets	NFLN	3.2	3.4
NFL Network rounded out the Thanksgiving Day slate with a 3.4 U.S. rating for Bengals/Jets, up 13% from last year, and the net’s highest Thanksgiving rating ever (five telecasts).
NFL	Jaguars/Giants, PIT/BUF, TEN/HOU, KC/SEA or MIA/OAK	CBS	9.2	9.3
The Week 12 NFL singleheader on CBS drew a 9.3 final rating, down 6% from last year, and tied as the second-lowest singleheader rating of the season.
NFL	Packers/Falcons (72%) or MIN/WSH (9%)	FOX	9.6	9.9
FOX earned a 9.9 final rating for the first game of its Week 12 doubleheader, up 30% from last year, and the highest rating of the season for the early doubleheader game.
NFL	Eagles/Bears (73%), TB/BAL (16%) or STL/DEN (7%)	FOX	15.8	15.3
The 15.3 final rating for the Week 12 national window marks a 7% increase from last year and a 6% increase from 2008.
NFL	Chargers/Colts	NBC	12.2	11.4
NBC’s Chargers/Colts game drew an 11.4 final rating last Sunday night, down a tick from last year, but up 20% from two years ago.
NBA	Wizards/Hawks	TNT	0.6	0.6
NBA	Kings/Clippers	TNT	0.5	0.6
Ratings for TNT’s Thanksgiving Night NBA doubleheader were down 14% for the early game and flat for the late game.
College Football	#17 Texas A&M/Texas	ESPN	3.0	2.5
ESPN drew a 2.5 U.S. rating for Texas A&M/Texas Thanksgiving Night, down 32% from last year, and down 17% from ’08.
College Football	West Virginia/Pittsburgh	ABC	1.9	2.3
The first game of ABC’s Black Friday doubleheader drew a 2.3 final rating, up a tick from last year’s comparable matchup.
College Football	Colorado/#15 Nebraska	ABC	1.8	1.7
Ratings for Colorado/Nebraska were even compared to the same matchup in the same timeslot last year.
College Football	#2 Auburn/#11 Alabama	CBS	5.3	7.3
CBS drew a 7.3 final rating for Auburn/Alabama on Black Friday, up 49% from last year, and the highest college football rating of the season.
College Football	#21 Arizona/#1 Oregon	ESPN	2.8	4.5
Oregon’s win over Arizona drew a 4.5 U.S. rating on ESPN Black Friday, up 80% from last year’s comparable matchup on ESPN2.
College Football	#4 Boise State/#19 Nevada	ESPN	2.4	3.4
The 3.4 U.S. rating for Boise State’s loss to Nevada on ESPN marks an 89% rise from the same matchup on ESPN2 last year.
College Football	Michigan/#8 Ohio State	ABC	4.6	4.0
The 4.0 final rating for last Saturday’s Michigan/Ohio State game marks a 5% decline from last year, and a 7% drop from 2008.
College Football	Northwestern/#7 Wisconsin (70%) or Florida/#22 Florida State (30%)	ABC	3.3	3.5
The middle game of last Saturday’s tripleheader on ABC drew a 3.5 final rating, up 30% from last year.
College Football	#13 Oklahoma/#9 Oklahoma State (54%) or Notre Dame/USC (48%)	ABC	4.6	4.9
In the nightcap, ABC drew a 4.9 final rating for Saturday Night Football, up 9% from last year, and a season-high.
College Football	#5 LSU/#12 Arkansas	CBS	4.0	4.3
Arkansas’ win over LSU drew a 4.3 final rating on CBS last Saturday, down 9% from last year.
College Football	Grambling/Southern	NBC	0.9	0.7
NBC earned a 0.7 final rating for the Grambling/Southern Bayou Classic last week, down a tick from last year.
College Football	Georgia/Georgia Tech	ESPN	2.1	1.6
Ratings for ESPN’s Georgia/Georgia Tech game were down 30% from last year.
College Football	#18 South Carolina/Clemson	ESPN2	1.2	1.3
ESPN2 drew a 1.3 U.S. rating for South Carolina/Clemson last Saturday night, up 117% from Oklahoma/Baylor one week earlier, and up a tick from Mississippi State/Alabama two weeks ago.
College Football	#3 TCU/New Mexico	Versus	0.3	—
College Football	Oregon State/#6 Stanford	Versus	0.5	—
U.S. HH ratings for last Saturday’s college football doubleheader on Versus were not immediately available.
UFL	Tuskers/Locomotives	Versus	0.1	—
U.S. HH ratings for the UFL Championship Game on Versus were not immediately available.

This week’s predictions:

Sport	Game/Event	Day/Time	Net	Prediction
NFL	Steelers/Ravens	8:15 PM Sunday	NBC	12.3
The Ravens and Steelers square off in a battle at the top of the AFC North Sunday night. Expect strong numbers, though a decline from last year’s comparable Vikings/Cardinals game (12.5) isn’t out of the question.
NFL	Cowboys/Colts (76%), ATL/TB (9%), CAR/SEA (8%) or STL/AZ (5%)	4:15 PM Sunday	FOX	15.8
Neither the Cowboys nor the Colts are having the type of season they expected, though the Colts are at least still in playoff contention. That said, both teams have name recognition — the Cowboys are the league’s most prominent team, and Peyton Manning is one of the league’s biggest individual stars. Expect big numbers — though as with SNF, a decline from last year (16.6 for coverage featuring Cowboys/Giants) would not be surprising.
NFL	Washington/Giants (51%), CHI/DET (18%), NO/CIN (13%) or SF/GB (9%)	1 PM Sunday	FOX	9.5
The early window on FOX features a battle of big market NFC East rivals as Washington faces the Giants. Other games include the NFC North leading, #3 market Bears and the defending champion Saints. Ratings should rise from last year’s 8.9.
NFL	Raiders/Chargers, CLE/MIA, BUF/MIN, JAX/TEN or DEN/KC	1 or 4 PM Sunday	CBS	9.0
The Week 13 singleheader window includes several games with playoff implications, but only one high-profile team — the 4-7 Vikings. Ratings should drop from last year’s comparable telecast (10.0), which featured Patriots/Dolphins.
College Football	Big 12 Championship Game (#9 OK/#13 NEB)	8 PM Saturday	ABC	6.3
The final Big 12 Championship Game for the forseeable future has no national championship implications. As a result, expect a fairly sizable decline from last year’s thriller (7.5), in which Texas clinched a spot in the BCS title game.
College Football	#2 Oregon/Oregon State	3:30 PM Saturday	ABC	5.5
Ratings should increase by at least 100% for Saturday’s battle between BCS #2 Oregon and rival Oregon State on ABC. Oregon has proven itself to be capable of attracting big numbers — just look at their Black Friday win over Arizona, which drew a 4.5 rating on cable. With a chance to clinch a trip to the national title game, the Ducks should attract another sizable audience, though competition from the SEC title game will likely hurt. Last year’s comparable game betwen Arizona and USC set the bar low with a 2.2 rating.
College Football	Rutgers/#24 West Virginia	12 PM Saturday	ABC	2.4
Expect a big decline for the first game of ABC’s tripleheader, pitting Rutgers against Big East rival West Virginia. Last year’s comparable Cincinnati/Pittsburgh game drew a 4.7.
College Football	SEC Championship Game (#1 AUB/#19 SC)	4 PM Saturday	CBS	6.0
Like Oregon, Auburn is certainly capable of attracting big TV audiences, as evidenced by the season-high 7.3 rating their game against Alabama drew the day after Thanksgiving. However, Saturday’s SEC Championship Game is likely to have a significant decline in ratings. The last two SEC title games featured high profile programs Alabama and Florida, both times in a battle of the top two teams in the country. The 2008 game drew a 9.4 rating; last year’s game drew an 11.1. Those numbers would be out of reach even if Saturday’s game did not face competition from Oregon/Oregon State on ABC, another game with national championship implications. Even with a decline, still expect strong numbers.
College Football	ACC Championship Game (#21 FSU/#15 VT)	7:45 PM Saturday	ESPN	2.2
The ACC Championship Game plumbed the depths last year, earning a mere 1.6 rating in its first outing on ESPN. With Florida State and Virginia Tech providing a bit more cachet than Georgia Tech and Clemson did last year, expect a decent increase.
College BB	#11 Kentucky/North Carolina	12 PM Saturday	CBS	1.5
CBS begins its college basketball coverage with Saturday’s battle of traditional powers Kentucky and North Carolina. The same matchup last year drew a 1.5.
College BB	#1 Duke/Butler	3:45 PM Saturday	ESPN	1.3
Duke faces Butler in a rematch of April’s college basketball National Championship Game. Oppsite crucial college football games, ESPN is unlikely to put up particularly big numbers.