Ratings predictions for sporting events over Super Bowl weekend, including Super Bowl XLV, the NBA on ABC, the NHL on NBC, college basketball on CBS and ESPN, and golf on CBS.
First, the results of last week’s predictions
| Sport | Game/Event | Net |
Prediction
|
Rating
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NFL
|
2011 Pro Bowl | FOX |
7.5
|
7.7
|
| FOX earned a 7.7 final rating for last Sunday’s NFL Pro Bowl, up 8% from last year’s game on ESPN, and up 43% from the 2009 game on NBC. The 7.7 is the highest for the Pro Bowl since 2000. | ||||
|
NBA
|
Heat/Thunder | ABC |
2.4
|
2.5
|
| The first game of last Sunday’s NBA doubleheader on ABC earned a 2.5 final rating, up 56% from last year, up 47% from 2009, and tied as the highest rating for the NBA on ABC in the 1 PM ET window since 2004. | ||||
|
NBA
|
Celtics/Lakers | ABC |
4.0
|
4.3
|
| The Celtics’ win over the Lakers last Sunday drew a 4.3 final rating on ABC, up 23% from the same matchup last year, up 54% from 2009, and the highest rated regular season NBA game on broadcast since February 2002 (excludes Christmas Day games). | ||||
|
NBA
|
Jazz/Warriors | ESPN |
0.7
|
0.6
|
| ESPN ended last Sunday’s NBA slate with a mere 0.6 U.S. rating for Jazz/Warriors, down 33% from the net’s first Sunday night game of the season. | ||||
|
NHL
|
2011 NHL All-Star Game | Versus |
0.8
|
0.8
|
| The NHL All-Star Game drew a 0.8 U.S. rating on Versus last Sunday afternoon, up 33% from 2009, up 60% from 2008, and the league’s highest rated All-Star Game since 2004. | ||||
|
Tennis
|
Australian Open Men’s Final | ESPN2 |
0.4
|
0.4
|
| ESPN2 earned a 0.4 U.S. rating for coverage of the Australian Open Men’s Final from 3-6 AM last Sunday morning, down 33% from last year’s coverage, and down 50% from 2009. | ||||
|
Tennis
|
Australian Open Women’s Final | ESPN2 |
0.3
|
0.4
|
| The Australian Open Women’s Final also drew a 0.4 U.S. rating on ESPN2, down 20% from last year, and flat compared to 2009. | ||||
|
Golf (M)
|
Farmers Insurance Open, Third Round | CBS |
1.7
|
2.0
|
| Farmers Insurance Open, Final Round |
2.7
|
3.5
|
||
| Final round coverage of last week’s Farmers Insurance Open drew a 3.5 final rating on CBS Sunday, up 59% from last year, and up 75% from 2009. Saturday’s third round action drew a 2.0, up 33% from last year, and up 67% from ’09. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
Kansas State/#6 Kansas | ESPN |
1.6
|
0.8
|
| Last Saturday’s Kansas State/Kansas game drew a 0.8 U.S. rating on ESPN, down 58% from the same matchup last year. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
#3 Duke/St. John’s | CBS |
1.4
|
1.3
|
| Duke’s upset loss to St. John’s drew a 1.3 final rating on CBS last Sunday, flat compared to last year’s regional telecast. | ||||
|
Figure Skating
|
U.S. Championships (Saturday night) | NBC |
2.7
|
2.5
|
| Coverage of the U.S. Figure Skating Championships drew a 2.5 final rating on NBC last Saturday night, down 27% from last year — when coverage aired weeks before the Winter Olympics — and down 7% from 2009. | ||||
|
NHL
|
Flyers/Blackhawks (1/23) | NBC |
1.1
|
0.8
|
| NBC earned a 0.8 final rating for Flyers/Blackhawks two weeks ago, up 14% from the network’s first indoor game last season, but down 20% from the game on the comparable date last year. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
#1 Ohio State/#22 Illinois (1/22) | CBS |
1.2
|
1.5
|
| CBS drew a 1.5 final rating for Ohio State/Illinois two weeks ago, up 67% from last year’s regional window. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
Tennessee/#8 Connecticut or Stanford/UCLA (1/22) | CBS |
1.5
|
1.7
|
| Regional college basketball action featuring Tennessee/Connecticut drew a 1.7 final rating on CBS two weeks ago, up 21% from last year’s regional coverage. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
#11 Texas/#2 Kansas (1/22) | CBS |
1.6
|
1.6
|
| The January 22 Texas/Kansas game drew a 1.6 final rating, down a tick from Texas/Connecticut in the same window last year. | ||||
This week’s predictions:
| Sport | Game/Event | Day/Time | Net | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NFL
|
Packers/Steelers | 6 PM Sunday | FOX |
Rating: 45.1
|
|
Viewers: 107.012
|
||||
| Super Bowl XLV features two of the most recognizable franchises in the NFL, playing in arguably the league’s highest-profile venue. With nine Super Bowl victories between them (and a combined 18 NFL championships overall), the Packers and Steelers are NFL royalty. The Steelers in particular have proven to be a big draw in the league’s biggest game, as two of the last three Super Bowls to feature the team set (since-broken) viewership records. Coming off the most-viewed regular season since 1989, the most-viewed Wild Card round ever, the most-viewed Divisional Round ever, and the most-viewed Conference Championship round since the early 1980s, another record for the Super Bowl appears to be in the cards. Last year’s game drew a 45.0 rating and an all-time television record 106.476 million viewers. | ||||
|
NBA
|
Magic/Celtics | 2:30 PM Sunday | ABC |
1.9
|
| Opposite the Super Bowl pregame show on FOX, Sunday’s Magic/Celtics game doesn’t figure to draw blockbuster numbers. That said, considering the overall increase in NBA ratings this season, expect a modest increase from last year’s 1.6 for the same matchup. | ||||
|
NHL
|
Penguins/Capitals | 12:30 PM Sunday | NBC |
1.1
|
| Look for this rematch of the NHL’s Winter Classic to put up solid numbers for NBC Sunday afternoon. Last year’s matchup between the same two teams earned a 1.1 rating. | ||||
|
Golf (M)
|
Phoenix Open, Third Round | 3 PM Sunday | CBS |
1.0
|
| Phoenix Open, Final Round |
1.6
|
|||
| Coming off strong numbers for the Farmers Insurance Open, do not expect the momentum to continue for this week’s Phoenix Open. With Tiger Woods skipping the tournament — and final round coverage airing opposite the Super Bowl pregame show — do not expect the numbers to climb much higher than last year’s comparable coverage of the Northern Trust Open, which also took place on Super Bowl weekend (1.2 Saturday, 1.7 Sunday). Last year’s Phoenix Open did not air on broadcast television. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
St. John’s/UCLA or #24 Illinois/Northwestern | 1 PM Saturday | CBS |
1.0
|
| Regional college basketball action featuring Steve Lavin‘s return to UCLA should put up decent numbers for CBS Saturday. Last year’s comparable window drew a 0.8. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
Michigan State/#18 Wisconsin | 1 PM Sunday | CBS |
0.9
|
| It’s been five years since CBS has aired a college basketball game on Super Bowl Sunday. Do not expect Sunday’s Michigan State/Illinois matchup to approach the numbers for that ’06 telecast (1.5). | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
N.C. State/#5 Duke | 6 PM Saturday | ESPN |
1.3
|
| It’s not North Carolina/Duke — that’s later this week — but Saturday’s N.C. State/Duke game figures to do fairly well in the ratings. On the comparable date last year, ESPN drew a 1.4 U.S. rating for a Duke/Boston college game that aired in an early afternoon timeslot. | ||||
|
College Basketball (M)
|
#11 Kentucky/#23 Florida | 9 PM Saturday | ESPN |
1.0
|
| Look for ratings to hold generally steady for Saturday’s Kentucky/Florida matchup. Last year’s comparable Michigan State/Wisconsin game drew a 1.1. | ||||
(Ratings for some events from nielsen.com)
