The Kentucky Derby highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, the NBA and NHL playoffs, Yankees-Cubs and NASCAR.
First, the Results of Last Week’s Predictions
— NBA Playoffs: Jazz-Clippers Game 7. Prediction: 3.6; final rating: 3.7.
— NBA Playoffs: Wizards-Celtics Game 1. Prediction: 2.8; final rating: 2.8.
— Stanley Cup Playoffs: Penguins-Capitals Game 2. Prediction: 1.4; final rating: 1.5.
— MLB Sunday Night Baseball: Cubs-Red Sox. Prediction: 1.6; final rating: 1.6.
— NFL Draft: final rounds (ESPN and NFLN). Predictions: 1.3 and 0.5; final ratings: 1.1 and 0.6.
This Week’s Predictions (all times ET)
Horse racing: Kentucky Derby (6:15 PM Sat NBC)
- On a packed sports weekend, the highest rated sporting event by far will be the first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown. Last year, in the first running after American Pharoah ended a 37-year Triple Crown drought, ratings fell to a 9.0 — tied as the lowest since 2011 (8.5). It is hard to gauge whether this year’s race will bounce back. The lack of a clear favorite plus some potentially wet weather could make for an unpredictable race and the possibility of a longshot winner. On the other hand, the race lacks the Triple Crown buzz of previous years. One way or another, expect the numbers to be about on par with last year. Prediction: 8.8.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Penguins-Capitals Game 5 (7:15 PM Sat NBC)
- For the second straight year, the Stanley Cup Playoffs gets a cushy post-Kentucky Derby timeslot. Last year, the same game between the same teams under the same circumstances (Penguins up 3-1) pulled a 2.4 rating. Expect more of the same? Probably, though the possible absence of Sidney Crosby could cost NBC a tenth or two. Prediction: 2.2.
NBA Playoffs: Warriors-Jazz Game 3 (8:30 PM Sat ABC)
- The Warriors are still the NBA’s biggest TV draw, but their playoff games have not drawn as well as a year ago, when the team was coming off of a 73 win season. Look for Saturday to be an exception. Last year’s comparable Warriors-Blazers Game 3, which lacked an injured Stephen Curry, set a reachable bar with a 3.6 rating. Expect an uptick. Prediction: 3.7.
NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers-Raptors Game 4 (3:30 PM Sun ABC)
- The Cavaliers-Raptors series has been easily the least-watched of the second round, and that was before Cleveland took a 3-0 lead. Even if the Raptors do well Sunday, many casual fans have likely already checked out. Last year’s Cavaliers-Hawks Game 4 had a 3.1 rating under similar circumstances. Prediction: 2.9.
MLB regular season: Yankees-Cubs (7 PM Sat FOX & 8 PM Sun ESPN)
- Baseball may not have a better ratings matchup than Yankees-Cubs, especially with New York off to a strong start and the Cubs still basking in their World Series victory. The last time the teams played a weekend series, back in 2011, FOX earned a 1.7 rating for an afternoon regional window and ESPN scored a 1.9 for Sunday Night Baseball. Given tough competition from the NBA and NHL playoffs, this year’s games will be hard-pressed to do better. Predictions: 1.9 and 1.8.
NASCAR Cup Series: Talladega (2 PM Sun FOX)
- If there is any good news for NASCAR in what has been another down season, the double-digit declines of February and March gave way to a more modest slide in April. Ratings at Martinsville and Richmond fell just eight and six percent, respectively, and Texas pulled even (albeit matching a record-low). In addition, the imminent retirement of Dale Earnhardt Jr. could pull fans back to the TV sets, especially for major races like this week at Talladega. While ratings will still likely decline from last year’s 4.0 — tied as the lowest for the race since 1997 — do not expect a particularly big drop. Prediction: 3.8.
