Predicting Notre Dame-Miami and NFL Week 10 ratings. Also on tap, more college football and the NASCAR playoffs.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.
CFB: #3 Notre Dame-#7 Miami (8 PM Sat ABC)
For the first time since 1990, Notre Dame and Miami square off while both are ranked in the top ten. The last time Notre Dame played in a top-ten matchup, against Miami rival Florida State in 2014, it scored a whopping 7.9 rating on ABC. This week’s ratings should not be quite as massive — FSU was the defending national champion with the defending Heisman Trophy winner, while Miami has been largely off the radar for 15 years — but big numbers are a safe bet. The biggest obstacle may be the competing top ten matchup on FOX, which should take away a few tenths. On the same weekend last year, Michigan-Iowa had a 3.8 rating. Prediction: 6.4.
CFB: #6 TCU-#5 Oklahoma (8 PM Sat FOX)
It is not as attractive a matchup as Notre Dame-Miami, but TCU-Oklahoma has its fair share of playoff implications Saturday night. The game should deliver one of Fox Sports’ top college football ratings all season behind Penn State-Ohio State last month (5.75) and Texas-USC in September (2.9). Yet that might not be enough to match last year’s comparable USC-Washington game (2.5). Prediction: 2.3.
CFB: #1 Georgia-#10 Auburn (3:30 PM Sat CBS)
Ratings have now declined for all ten SEC telecasts on CBS this season, with seven down by double-digits. CBS has a decent chance to break the slump this week. Not only does it have a top ten matchup featuring the #1 team in the nation, but last year’s comparable rating — a 2.9 for a game between the same two teams — was not too high. Do not expect any spectacular numbers, but ratings should at least post a modest increase. Prediction: 3.1.
NFL: Mostly Cowboys-Falcons (4:25 PM Sun FOX)
Hard to imagine the behind-the-scenes machinations of Jerry Jones vs. Arthur Blank will have any impact on Sunday’s ratings. As for the on-field product, the Cowboys against the reining NFC champions sounds like a recipe for good ratings. But the middling Falcons have never been broadly popular and Dallas — though still the biggest draw in the league — has not been drawing the way it did a year ago. Last year’s comparable window featured Cowboys-Steelers and had a 16.4. Prediction: 13.2.
NFL: Patriots-Broncos (8:30 PM Sun NBC)
NBC has been a magnet for weak teams this season, with Sunday Night Football featuring a sub-.500 squad in three of four weeks. A few years ago, Patriots-Broncos would have been the annual Tom Brady-Peyton Manning matchup, one of the highest rated NFL games on the calendar. Take Manning out, and the Broncos are a mediocre team and a mediocre draw. Patriots-Seahawks drew a 12.7 on the same weekend last year. Prediction: 10.1.
NASCAR Playoffs: Phoenix (3:30 PM Sun NBC)
NASCAR ratings have not been as bad lately, with two of the last four races posting increases over last year. Perhaps this week will make it three out of five. Last year’s 2.4 rating at Phoenix was the lowest for the race at least 2000. That’s low enough (for broadcast) that it would not take much to get an increase. Prediction: 2.5.
Last week’s results
— CFB: LSU-Alabama. Prediction: 3.9; result: 3.9.
— CFB: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State. Prediction: 1.6; result: 1.4.
— NFL: Chiefs-Cowboys. Prediction: 13.0; result: 12.5.
— NFL: Raiders-Dolphins. Prediction: 9.4; result: 8.6.
— NASCAR: Texas. Prediction: 1.9; result: 1.6.
— EPL: Chelsea-Manchester United. Prediction: 0.41; result: 0.47.
— Breeders Cup Classic: Prediction: 1.7; result: 1.3.
