Weekend Ratings Predictions: Championship Sunday & More

NFL playoff ratings have declined across-the-board through the first two rounds, a first under the current scheduling format (which dates back to 2002). It is more likely than not that the downward trend will extend to the conference championship games, but there is at least one glimmer of hope.

The Vikings authored one of the great finishes in NFL playoff history last week when Stefon Diggs scored a walk-off 61-yard touchdown to beat the Saints. A peak audience of 46 million watched that final play, well below the previous year’s peak of over 62 million, but still a massive sampling for a relatively unknown team. One great finish is not by itself going to overcome two years of slumping ratings, but in a league where off-field controversies have overshadowed lackluster on-field play, the “Miracle in Minneapolis” was sorely needed.

Can the momentum from that finish carry into a new week? Perhaps, but there are some major headwinds facing Sunday’s NFC Championship. Beyond the NFL’s overall slump, Vikings-Eagles has a striking lack of starpower. Case Keenum vs. Nick Foles is not the type of matchup that lures viewers to their TV sets.

In the same window last year, Patriots-Steelers had a 24.4 rating on CBS. Two years ago, Cardinals-Panthers had a 24.1 on FOX. Those numbers are actually modest for the late conference championship window, which routinely topped a 28 rating earlier this decade. Prediction: 22.8.

The Jaguars looked impressive last week in upsetting the Pittsburgh Steelers, but when all is said and done, they are still the Jaguars. Despite having a real shot at the Super Bowl — especially if Tom Brady is injured — Jacksonville is a fairly anonymous small-market team with a roundly ridiculed QB in Blake Bortles.

The Patriots are still the Patriots, and one would imagine that would make up for Jacksonville’s presence. However, there is some evidence of Pats fatigue. New England just played its lowest rated playoff game since 2006 last week, netting a 14.5 rating against another AFC South opponent, Tennessee.

Expect a fairly steep decline from last year’s early game, Packers-Falcons (25.0). Dating back to 2002, the lowest rating in the window was a 21.9 for Eagles-Cardinals in 2009. Prediction: 21.3.

Last season was a rough one for the NBA on ABC. The network averaged a 1.9 rating for regular season games, the lowest ever for the NBA on broadcast television. The NBA Saturday Primetime package averaged a 1.8, down 14 percent from the inaugural campaign a year earlier. With NBA ratings up across the board this season, it is a safe bet that ABC will bounce back — starting with this weekend’s star-studded doubleheader.

First up on Saturday, Thunder-Cavaliers in a matchup of disappointing teams. Cleveland and Oklahoma City have combined for a middling 52-37 record, but still boast some of the most recognizable names in the NBA. ABC has not aired a Saturday afternoon regular season game in 15 years, so expectations should not be too high. Still, do not expect a significant drop from last year’s Sunday afternoon game between the same two teams (2.0). Prediction: 1.8.

In primetime, the two best teams in the West square off as Houston hosts Golden State. The Rockets’ mediocre play of late — a 6-8 record over the past month — has made this matchup a little less appetizing. Even so, ratings should easily top last year’s Spurs-Cavs game (2.2). Prediction: 2.8.

Of all things, a quiet season for Kentucky basketball. Ranked just 18th in the country, the Wildcats are not the juggernaut college basketball fans have grown accustomed to in recent years. Against an unranked Florida team, and facing tough NBA competition, do not expect much of an improvement over last year’s 0.9 for Duke-Miami. Prediction: 1.0.

The Capitals are doing their usual thing, leading their division in hopes of crushing their fans’ hopes in the second round. The Flyers, meanwhile, are clinging to the edge of the playoff race. This is as nondescript as national TV games get. In the same window last year, Rangers-Red Wings had a 0.8. Prediction: 0.7.