Weekend Ratings Predictions: Wild Card Weekend & More

The NFL ratings decline was the dominant sports media story of last year, and one of the top media stories period. The postseason is unlikely to provide any reprieve. Marquee teams like the Cowboys, Packers and Seahawks are out. In are lower-profile, mostly small market, squads that recently represented the league’s dregs. Jacksonville, Tennessee, Buffalo and the Rams are making their first playoff appearances in nine or more years. The only returning playoff teams from last year are Atlanta, Kansas City, New England and Pittsburgh, and of those four, only the Patriots and Steelers move the needle. While new blood can be a good thing, it can also be a tough sell to casual fans.

There has been no shortage of hysteria surrounding NFL ratings, but the 2018 postseason has the potential to be an unambiguous dud. Wild Card weekend in particular should produce across-the-board declines.

ESPN/ABC, which despite paying more than any other outlet for NFL rights is dead last on the league’s depth chart, opens the weekend with the weakest matchup — Tennessee against Kansas City (4:30 PM Saturday). The Chiefs are in a class with the Colts and Texans as (usually) solid teams that do not make a dent in the ratings. As for Tennessee, Marcus Mariota‘s popularity in college has not translated to the pros. Last year’s comparable Raiders-Texans game had a 14.4. Prediction: 12.0.

NBC follows up with the defending NFC champion Falcons against Los Angeles (8:15 PM). The Falcons have never been a particularly impressive draw and that has not changed, even coming off of a Super Bowl performance that will never be forgotten. The Rams, meanwhile, have yet to be accepted in Los Angeles and are still fairly unknown on the national scene. Last year, Lions-Seahawks drew a 14.8. Prediction: 14.1.

On Sunday, CBS has one of the unlikeliest playoff matchups in recent memory as Buffalo faces Jacksonville (1 PM). The Bills’ return to the playoffs has been a rare positive story this NFL season, but that may not be enough to overcome both teams’ general anonymity. Market size does not matter as much in the NFL as in other sports, but neither Buffalo nor Jacksonville ranks in the top 40. A pair of small market teams without well-known players or recent success sounds like a rough combination for CBS. It is hard to imagine ratings coming close to last year’s 17.5 for Dolphins-Steelers. Prediction: 15.0.

Finally, FOX gets the only matchup of recent playoff teams as the Panthers face the Saints (4:30 PM). Cam Newton was the talk of the NFL two years ago and Drew Brees is a star in his own right. Yet the bar is so high in the late Sunday window that a huge decline seems unavoidable. Last year featured a considerably higher-profile Giants-Packers matchup. It had a 21.3 rating, and that was a seven-year low. In this NFL season, when only one regular season game managed even a 15 rating, it is tough to see how an NFC South matchup gets anywhere close to a 20. Prediction: 16.6.

College basketball barely registers before the month of March, but can still attract solid numbers this time of year — especially when it airs directly after the NFL. Even with pro football’s ratings decline, there is no better lead-in in all of television. In the same window last year, Wisconsin-Purdue had a 1.9 rating, the fifth-highest college basketball rating of last season. With Michigan State #1 and Ohio State one of the bigger names in college sports, even better numbers seem likely this weekend. Prediction: 2.1.

There does not seem to be much anticipation for the upcoming Winter Olympics. Perhaps the current climate does not lend itself to much excitement for a Games on the doorstep of North Korea. Perhaps the surprisingly low numbers for Rio 2016 were a sign that the Olympics’ resurgence, which began in Beijing ten years ago, has faded. Whatever the reason, a real apathy has set in just 34 days from the Opening Ceremony. Expect that to impact numbers for the U.S. Figure Skating Championships. The main event — the ladies’ free skate — is on a Friday night this year to accommodate NBC’s NFL coverage. Expect ratings to sink from the last Olympic year, 2014 (2.7). Prediction: 2.2.

2017 was a mostly down year for the PGA Tour, and with golf’s wagon still mostly hitched to Tiger Woods, it’s hard not to see 2018 continuing the downward trend. Having said that, this week’s Tournament of Champions seems likely to increase, if for no other reason than the bar is pretty low. Last year’s final round had a 0.39 rating, down from a 0.52 for Jordan Spieth‘s win the previous year. Prediction: 0.42.