Ratings Predictions: Conference Finals, Preakness & More

The Cavs’ postseason of living dangerously has reached its most perilous point. Cleveland enters the weekend down 0-2 to a Celtics team that is shorthanded but nonetheless boasts two impressive young stars and a suffocating defense. So far, the Cavs’ up-and-down run has been the biggest draw of the postseason, with the team playing in seven of the nine most-watched games through Wednesday. Expect that to continue in Game 3, even in a low-rated Saturday night timeslot. Warriors-Spurs pulled a 3.7 rating in the same window a year ago. Last year’s Celtics-Cavs Game 3 had a 4.0 rating on a Sunday night. Prediction: 4.5.

Houston got on the board Wednesday, but until the Rockets steal a game in Oakland, it will be hard to change the perception that the Western Conference Finals is a done deal. Game 1 had a 5.4 rating, the highest for a conference final opener in six years, but Golden State’s convincing win sapped some of the energy out of the series. Game 2 slipped 15 percent from the opener (4.6). Game 3 should rebound, but do not expect the ratings to climb back to Game 1 levels. Even so, anything above 4.7 would be the highest for a WCF Game 3 since 2010. Prediction: 4.9.

Kentucky Derby ratings tied a 12-year low, but that does not necessarily mean The Preakness will follow suit. The Derby had to contend with tougher than usual NBA competition, while the Preakness will air virtually unopposed. Also working in NBC’s favor this weekend is the fact that last year’s Preakness set a historically low bar — a 4.6, the worst for the event since at least 2000. One would think ratings will rebound, even if just a little. Prediction: 5.0.

The post-Preakness timeslot is not nearly as cushy as the post-Kentucky Derby window, but NBC should still expect strong numbers for Saturday’s Capitals-Lightning Game 5. After a six-year low in Game 1, Games 2-4 of the Eastern Conference final have each increased over last year — including a 33 percent jump Thursday night. Expect another jump for Game 5. Last year, Senators-Penguins had a 1.2 rating in a Sunday afternoon window. In the same post-Preakness window, Predators-Ducks had a 1.4. Prediction: 1.6.

The Vegas Golden Knights are one win away from pulling off one of the all-time stunners in sports history, a true expansion team making the championship round. The Vegas-Winnipeg series has done well considering the markets involved — #40 market Las Vegas and low-wattage Canadian market Winnipeg — with two of the first three games up from last year’s West Final. Expect Game 5 to actually decline from last year’s Predators-Ducks game, which aired in the post-Preakness window (1.4). However, it should score an uptick over the same window last year, Senators-Penguins (1.2). Prediction: 1.3.

Sunday Night Baseball ratings have dropped for seven straight weeks to start the season, with six of those seven telecasts down double-digits. Can the streak finally end this week? Indians-Astros is a matchup of the last two American League champions and last year’s Rangers-Tigers game set a low bar with a 0.8. On the other hand, the NBA figures to provide tough competition — and in Houston, the Rockets will likely overshadow the Astros. Prediction: 0.8.

This weekend’s Sparks-Lynx WNBA Finals rematch would have been a great fit for 5 PM Saturday on ESPN, leading into the network’s Celtics-Cavs coverage. Instead, ESPN has softball in that window while the WNBA is relegated to Sunday on ESPN2, with no meaningful lead-in or lead-out program. One of these days, the WNBA and ESPN are going to actually have to try to put these games where potential viewers can find them. On opening weekend last year, Storm-Sparks had a 0.23. Prediction: 0.25.