Ratings Predictions: World Cup, U.S. Open & MLB

After garnering impressive numbers in 2010 and 2014, the FIFA World Cup will surely fall back to earth this year. The tournament faces stiff headwinds, none more significant than the United States’ absence. The four USMNT matches in the 2014 World Cup earned ratings of 6.3, 6.7, 9.6 and 9.8 on ESPN, compared to a 9.1 for the final on ABC. FOX was never going to match that performance due to factors beyond its control (more on that below), but the loss still stings.

Not helping matters is the site of this year’s tournament. In the most recent Gallup poll, Russia was viewed favorably by just a quarter of respondents, its favorability rating a subterranean -47. (When Russia won the World Cup bidding in December 2010, it was viewed favorably by 47 percent and had a rating of +2.) That enmity might have moved the needle if the U.S. was at least competing, but absent that ‘us vs. them’ aspect all one is left with is a unappealing host.

Beyond the sociopolitical drawbacks, Russia is also several hours ahead of U.S. Eastern time, with no match scheduled for later than 3 PM ET (the final is set for 11 AM). The early timeslots are not so different than in 2010, when no match of the South Africa-based World Cup started later than 2 PM. Even so, it does not help.

With all of that as preamble, it is a safe bet that World Cup ratings will decline double-digits on both FOX and Telemundo, but especially on the former. Viewership for Thursday’s opening match plunged 61 percent on FOX (Telemundo figures were not available), and it is hard to imagine that will end up an outlier.

ARGENTINA-ICELAND (9 AM SAT FOX/TELEMUNDO). Argentina is a reliable draw, but a 9 AM start against Iceland is not a great recipe for strong ratings. Set expectations low. Predictions: 1.1 on FOX, 1.3 on Telemundo.

MEXICO-GERMANY (11 AM SUN FS1/TELEMUNDO). With the U.S. out, Mexico is far and away the biggest draw of the World Cup. Facing a prominent Germany team in a solid timeslot — late Sunday morning is about as good as it gets in this year’s tournament — expect one of the better results of the tournament. Mexico’s first match in the 2014 World Cup, which took place on a Friday morning, had a 1.4 rating on ESPN2. Ratings on Univision were never released. Predictions: 1.6 on FS1, 2.7 on Telemundo.

No Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlory or Jason Day, all of whom missed the cut at the season’s second major. Fox Sports’ only hope entering the weekend is Phil Mickelson, who enters the third round 10 shots off the lead in a tie for 35th.

There were reasons for optimism entering this year’s U.S. Open. Woods has fueled a PGA ratings resurgence this season, with 28 of the season’s first 40 windows on broadcast television up from last year. The World Cup, even if diminished, is a better lead-in than the tournament has had in many years. Alas, FOX is likely looking at record-low territory. The lowest third round U.S. Open rating on record is a 2.2, set last year and in 2016. The lowest final round rating is a 3.0, set in the last World Cup year in 2014. Predictions: 2.1 and 3.0.

On one of the busiest summer weekends ever on Fox Sports, baseball might fly under the radar a bit. However, look for the MLB game of the week — Cubs-Cardinals in most of the country — to generate a solid number. In the same post-U.S. Open window last year, FOX scored a 1.6 rating for coverage featuring Cubs-Pirates. Prediction: 1.7.