Ratings Predictions: World Cup Final, Serena & More

As the FIFA World Cup draws to a close, Fox Sports can be satisfied with the tournament’s performance. World Cup ratings were always going to plunge from four years ago, owing to the United States’ absence and to a morning-heavy schedule in which more than half the games — 37 of 64 — began before Noon ET (there were zero such matches in 2014).

Given the circumstances, it is no surprise that ratings have declined a full third from 2014 through the semifinals. What is a surprise is how close the numbers are to 2010, a World Cup that was considered a massive success at the time. This year’s 1.8 average is down just a tick from eight years ago. Take out the U.S. matches and this year’s tournament looks even better — down just 18 percent from four years ago and actually up 13 percent from 2010.

To be sure, there is no sugarcoating double-digit declines. Yet it is safe to say that the World Cup ratings disaster that seemed certain after the U.S. failed to qualify did not materialize.

The surprisingly solid results are unlikely to extend into Sunday’s final. Croatia played in Fox Sports’ most-watched World Cup game thus far, an upset of Russia in the quarterfinals, but the team is not the kind of high-profile, traditional finalist the networks prefer. Moreover, the 11 AM ET start is the earliest for any men’s World Cup final since 2002.

Expect ratings on FOX to fall well short of Germany-Argentina in ’14 (9.1) and Netherlands-Spain in ’10 (8.1). The combined audience across FOX and Telemundo seems likely to dip under 20 million for the first time since 2006. Predictions: 6.8 rating (FOX), 18.7 million viewers (combined).

For the third time in four years — and in just her fourth tournament since returning from pregnancy — Serena Williams is in the Wimbledon final. She faces one of her tougher foes of late, Angelique Kerber, against whom she split a pair of major finals two years ago. Given the possibility of a compelling match, expect ratings to bounce back from last year’s 1.4 for Venus Williams‘ blowout loss to Garbine Muguruza. The unexpected lead-in from the Djokovic-Nadal men’s semifinal should chip in a tenth or two as well. Prediction: 1.7.

If you cannot get Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal is a great consolation prize. Unfortunately for ESPN, Nadal enters the weekend down two-sets-to-one against Novak Djokovic, who for all of his greatness has never quite moved the needle the same way. With the virtually anonymous Kevin Anderson already through to the final, it is easy to expect a decline in ratings. The men’s final had a 1.5 rating each of the past two years. Prediction: 1.4.

World Cup lead-ins have been a boon for MLS ratings, with three of the league’s 20-largest regular season audiences all-time coming during this year’s tournament. This week’s Atlanta-Seattle match has the biggest lead-in of all, the World Cup final. MLS does not need to retain much of an audience for Sunday to be a historic success; the league’s highest regular season rating ever (excluding exhibitions) was 1.3 for a 2004 match on ABC. Prediction: 1.3.

Aided in part by the World Cup, FOX MLB ratings are on the rise this season. Five of the network’s seven windows have posted an increase, with two telecasts scoring a 2.0 rating — the highest on FOX since 2013. With most of the country getting a potential ALCS preview between the Yankees and Indians this week, look for another solid number. Prediction: 1.9.