Ratings Predictions: College Football Opening Weekend

The first meeting between Michigan and Notre Dame in four years highlights college football’s opening weekend. The Michigan-Notre Dame rivalry has traditionally been one of the sport’s most reliable draws, scoring at least a 4.0 rating each year from 2009-13. The final game of the rivalry in 2014 was comparably weak at a 2.7, though that was a 31-0 Notre Dame rout.

Anticipation should be high for Saturday’s game given the four-year layoff, and the fact that it is the rivals’ first meeting of the Jim Harbaugh era. In week one last year, Notre Dame’s opener against Temple had a 1.0 in the afternoon. Prediction: 4.4.

Last year, Alabama opened its season against Florida State in a heavily-hyped matchup of top three teams. That game had a 6.9 rating, tied as the highest on college football’s opening weekend since 1998. This year’s opener carries a much lower profile, as the Tide face unranked Louisville. Given the matchup, and the competition, expect ratings to fall significantly from last year — and also trail Alabama’s openers against USC in 2016 (4.6) and Wisconsin in 2015 (4.3). Prediction: 3.8.

It is the only top ten matchup of the weekend, but do not expect ratings to rise for Washington-Auburn on ABC Saturday. Last year’s comparable window was a considerably higher-profile matchup of Michigan and Florida that scored a hefty 4.9. Washington simply does not move the needle, no matter how good, and Auburn’s drawing power is generally limited to SEC matchups. Still, with little competition Saturday afternoon, expect the game to draw one of the better numbers of the weekend. Prediction: 4.3.

Ohio State has been the talk of college football for all the wrong reasons, and with coach Urban Meyer serving the first game of a three-game suspension, intrigue should be high for the Buckeyes’ opener — for better or worse. Even against a moribund Oregon State team, expect ratings to at least double last year’s comparable Akron-Penn State matchup. Prediction: 3.7.

For the third straight year, college football is taking advantage of the last NFL-free Sunday on the calendar. Unlike last year, when ABC had to contend with a competing matchup on FOX, the network has Sunday night all to itself. Miami and LSU are both teams with national appeal, and with both in the top 25, a strong number seems likely. Ratings should easily top West Virginia-Virginia Tech last year (2.7), though fall well short of Notre Dame-Texas two years ago (6.4). Prediction: 4.1.

Opening weekend concludes with Virginia Tech-Florida State in the ACC’s annual Labor Day game. The Labor Day game has been feast or famine in recent years, depending on the matchup. Ratings were stellar in 2015 (6.3) and strong in 2016 (4.8), but both years featured non-conference matchups—Ohio State-Virginia Tech and Mississippi-FSU respectively. The last time an ACC conference matchup topped a 3.0 rating on Labor Day was Miami-FSU in 2009. Prediction: 3.2.

Serena Williams and Venus Williams meet in the US Open for the first time in three years, when their quarterfinal matchup had a whopping 3.7 rating — unsurpassed by any tennis match since. This year’s third round matchup will not be nearly as big a draw, as the 2015 match was lifted by Serena’s pursuit of the calendar grand slam. Even so, ESPN had so much confidence in the matchup that it rescheduled it from ESPN2 to the flagship network. Rightfully so. Expect a strong number. Prediction: 2.2.

Tiger Woods is playing TPC Boston for the first time since 2013, ordinary making it a safe bet that ratings will increase. However, just last week at the Northern Trust, Woods’ presence in the field was not enough to save final round ratings for a 10 percent decline. If Woods is not in contention — or misses the cut — it is entirely possible ratings could decline from last year’s relatively healthy 2.0. Of course if he is in contention, the sky is the limit. Prediction: 2.3.

When NASCAR moved the Southern 500 back to Labor Day, the intention was surely to restore the race to prominence. Instead, ratings for the race have dwindled dramatically—falling from a 3.7 in 2015 on NBC to a 2.8 the following year and a 1.8 on NBCSN last year. With NASCAR ratings down all year, another drop seems certain for this year’s race. Prediction: 1.6.