Ratings Predictions: Giants-Cowboys & Pats-Jags

Primetime NFL ratings have declined across the board entering the second Sunday of the season, with both of NBC’s Week 1 windows hitting ten-year lows. Expect that streak to end Sunday. Giants-Cowboys is traditionally one of the NFL’s strongest draws, with the rivals’ Sunday night game last season earning a primetime season-high 13.4. Given the trend in NFL ratings, it seems probable that this year’s game will not draw as well. Even so, the numbers should comfortably top last year’s 11.3 for Packers-Falcons. Prediction: 12.6.

Last year’s AFC Championship game held up surprisingly well given the presence of the Jaguars, who have never been a particularly strong draw. Even so, do not count on an increase this week. Last year’s comparable window, which aired on FOX and featured the Dallas Cowboys, scored a 14.3 rating. Only one regular season window since then has had a higher rating, Patriots-Steelers on CBS in Week 15 of last year (15.2). Prediction: 12.9.

LSU-Auburn looks a lot more appealing than it did before the start of the season, with LSU rising sharply up the rankings after a Week 1 rout of Miami. Expect ratings to easily surpass the teams’ mid-October meeting on CBS last year (2.3). Topping last year’s comparable Tennessee-Florida game (3.2) might be a tougher task. Prediction: 3.0.

The game of the week, at least as determined by ESPN, pits Ohio State against TCU at Cowboys Stadium. As far as Ohio State out-of-conference games go, TCU is a lower-profile opponent than Oklahoma was last year. Plus, Alabama will be providing stiff competition on ESPN. Still, ratings should hit an early season-high for ABC’s Saturday Night Football. The first two telecasts scored weak ratings of 2.7 (Louisville-Alabama) and 2.0 (Penn State-Pittsburgh). Prediction: 3.3.

Mississippi’s mid-decade upsets of Alabama have made an otherwise run-of-the-mill SEC matchup a bit more attractive of late. Few expect an upset this week, but still expect a solid rating. Last year’s matchup between the teams had a 1.8. Prediction: 2.0.

The NASCAR playoffs begin Sunday with a brand-new race from Las Vegas. NASCAR ratings plumbed the depths during football season last year, including the lowest Cup Series rating since at least 2000 — a 1.2 at Richmond. Given the season-long trend of double-digit declines, it seems likely the numbers will go even lower this time around. Last year’s playoff opener at Chicagoland had a 1.4 rating. Prediction: 1.2.

MLB on FOX returns from hiatus with most of the country getting a crucial Dodgers-Cardinals game. FOX had a solid run for its primetime games earlier in the season, and there is every reason to expect that trend to continue this week. Last year’s comparable FOX window had a 0.7 rating, tying the all-time low for Major League Baseball on over-the-air television. Prediction: 1.0.