Predicting NFL Week 3 ratings and more, including college football and Tiger Woods in the Tour Championship.
All times Eastern. Last week’s results at the bottom of the page.
NFL: MOSTLY COWBOYS-SEAHAWKS (4:25P SUN FOX)
What to make of NFL ratings two weeks in? There have been some flashes of normalcy. The singleheader has done well, scoring double-digit increases in Weeks 1 and 2. The latest Thursday Night Football game was the most-watched on NFL Network in three years.
On balance, however, the numbers are not much different than a year ago. That is not a bad thing; better to level off than to drop a third straight year. Yet anyone expecting the NFL to return to ‘normalcy’ — i.e. 2015 — will be disappointed.
This week figures to be a microcosm of the NFL’s situation. FOX is likely to score an increase for Cowboys-Seahawks Sunday afternoon. Last year’s comparable window on CBS had a 12.2 (mostly Bengals-Packers). Yet do not expect the kind of numbers once typical of the Cowboys on “America’s Game of the Week.” Prediction: 12.7.
NFL: PATRIOTS-LIONS (8:20P SUN NBC)
The NFL vastly overstated the level of interest in the Patriots facing former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Luckily for NBC, last year’s game set such a low bar — a 10.1 for Oakland against Washington — that ratings should not decline too much. Prediction: 9.8.
CFB: #22 TEXAS A&M-#1 ALABAMA (3:30P SAT CBS)
For the third straight week, the SEC on CBS features a top 25 matchup. Alabama makes their first appearance on CBS this season facing recent rival Texas A&M. Expect ratings to soar above last year’s mere 1.9 for Alabama’s rout of Vanderbilt, the Tide’s lowest CBS rating since at least 2008. So far this season, no afternoon game has exceeded a 3.5 rating. Prediction: 3.9.
CFB: #7 STANFORD-#20 OREGON (8P SAT ABC)
The Pac-12 just does not draw like the other conferences, even in a cushy timeslot like 8 PM ET. It may be a top 25 matchup, but Stanford-Oregon will be hard-pressed to match last year’s comparable Penn State-Iowa game (3.1). Prediction: 2.6.
PGA TOUR: FINAL RD. OF TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP (1:30P SUN NBC)
The PGA Tour season has been dominated by one story: Tiger Woods‘ repeated attempts to win his first tournament in five years. He has come close again and again — at Tampa Bay, at the British Open, at the PGA Championship — but the drought has continued. If anyone wondered whether Woods’ drawing power would fade after years of decline, on and off the course, the question was answered with a resounding ‘no’ this season. Every tournament in which Woods had a legitimate chance to win scored substantial increases in ratings.
Woods is once again in contention at the season-ending Tour Championship, holding a share of the lead entering the weekend. The Tour Championship has traditionally been a weak draw, with final round ratings ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 the past five years. Expect much stronger numbers this time around. Prediction: 2.0.
NASCAR CUP SERIES PLAYOFFS: RICHMOND (7:30P SAT NBCSN)
The one positive for NASCAR amidst a staggering run of declines is that the bar for success gets lower and lower. Last year’s Richmond race posted a 1.2 rating, tied as the worst for any Cup Series race since at least 2000. Even a 1.3 — which would tie the third-lowest mark since 2000 — would represent an increase. Of course a low bar matters not if the numbers keep declining. Prediction: 1.1.
LAST WEEK’S PREDICTIONS
What to make of NFL ratings two weeks in? There have been some flashes of normalcy. The singleheader has done well, scoring double-digit increases in Weeks 1 and 2. The latest Thursday Night Football game was the most-watched on NFL Network in three years.
On balance, however, the numbers are not much different than a year ago. That is not a bad thing; better to level off than to drop a third straight year. Yet anyone expecting the NFL to return to ‘normalcy’ — i.e. 2015 — will be disappointed.
This week figures to be a microcosm of the NFL’s situation. FOX is likely to score an increase for Cowboys-Seahawks Sunday afternoon. Last year’s comparable window on CBS had a 12.2 (mostly Bengals-Packers). Yet do not expect the kind of numbers once typical of the Cowboys on “America’s Game of the Week.” Prediction: 12.7.
The NFL vastly overstated the level of interest in the Patriots facing former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Luckily for NBC, last year’s game set such a low bar — a 10.1 for Oakland against Washington — that ratings should not decline too much. Prediction: 9.8.
CFB: #22 TEXAS A&M-#1 ALABAMA (3:30P SAT CBS)
For the third straight week, the SEC on CBS features a top 25 matchup. Alabama makes their first appearance on CBS this season facing recent rival Texas A&M. Expect ratings to soar above last year’s mere 1.9 for Alabama’s rout of Vanderbilt, the Tide’s lowest CBS rating since at least 2008. So far this season, no afternoon game has exceeded a 3.5 rating. Prediction: 3.9.
CFB: #7 STANFORD-#20 OREGON (8P SAT ABC)
The Pac-12 just does not draw like the other conferences, even in a cushy timeslot like 8 PM ET. It may be a top 25 matchup, but Stanford-Oregon will be hard-pressed to match last year’s comparable Penn State-Iowa game (3.1). Prediction: 2.6.
PGA TOUR: FINAL RD. OF TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP (1:30P SUN NBC)
The PGA Tour season has been dominated by one story: Tiger Woods‘ repeated attempts to win his first tournament in five years. He has come close again and again — at Tampa Bay, at the British Open, at the PGA Championship — but the drought has continued. If anyone wondered whether Woods’ drawing power would fade after years of decline, on and off the course, the question was answered with a resounding ‘no’ this season. Every tournament in which Woods had a legitimate chance to win scored substantial increases in ratings.
Woods is once again in contention at the season-ending Tour Championship, holding a share of the lead entering the weekend. The Tour Championship has traditionally been a weak draw, with final round ratings ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 the past five years. Expect much stronger numbers this time around. Prediction: 2.0.
NASCAR CUP SERIES PLAYOFFS: RICHMOND (7:30P SAT NBCSN)
The one positive for NASCAR amidst a staggering run of declines is that the bar for success gets lower and lower. Last year’s Richmond race posted a 1.2 rating, tied as the worst for any Cup Series race since at least 2000. Even a 1.3 — which would tie the third-lowest mark since 2000 — would represent an increase. Of course a low bar matters not if the numbers keep declining. Prediction: 1.1.
LAST WEEK’S PREDICTIONS
For the third straight week, the SEC on CBS features a top 25 matchup. Alabama makes their first appearance on CBS this season facing recent rival Texas A&M. Expect ratings to soar above last year’s mere 1.9 for Alabama’s rout of Vanderbilt, the Tide’s lowest CBS rating since at least 2008. So far this season, no afternoon game has exceeded a 3.5 rating. Prediction: 3.9.
The Pac-12 just does not draw like the other conferences, even in a cushy timeslot like 8 PM ET. It may be a top 25 matchup, but Stanford-Oregon will be hard-pressed to match last year’s comparable Penn State-Iowa game (3.1). Prediction: 2.6.
PGA TOUR: FINAL RD. OF TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP (1:30P SUN NBC)
The PGA Tour season has been dominated by one story: Tiger Woods‘ repeated attempts to win his first tournament in five years. He has come close again and again — at Tampa Bay, at the British Open, at the PGA Championship — but the drought has continued. If anyone wondered whether Woods’ drawing power would fade after years of decline, on and off the course, the question was answered with a resounding ‘no’ this season. Every tournament in which Woods had a legitimate chance to win scored substantial increases in ratings.
Woods is once again in contention at the season-ending Tour Championship, holding a share of the lead entering the weekend. The Tour Championship has traditionally been a weak draw, with final round ratings ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 the past five years. Expect much stronger numbers this time around. Prediction: 2.0.
NASCAR CUP SERIES PLAYOFFS: RICHMOND (7:30P SAT NBCSN)
The one positive for NASCAR amidst a staggering run of declines is that the bar for success gets lower and lower. Last year’s Richmond race posted a 1.2 rating, tied as the worst for any Cup Series race since at least 2000. Even a 1.3 — which would tie the third-lowest mark since 2000 — would represent an increase. Of course a low bar matters not if the numbers keep declining. Prediction: 1.1.
LAST WEEK’S PREDICTIONS
The PGA Tour season has been dominated by one story: Tiger Woods‘ repeated attempts to win his first tournament in five years. He has come close again and again — at Tampa Bay, at the British Open, at the PGA Championship — but the drought has continued. If anyone wondered whether Woods’ drawing power would fade after years of decline, on and off the course, the question was answered with a resounding ‘no’ this season. Every tournament in which Woods had a legitimate chance to win scored substantial increases in ratings.
Woods is once again in contention at the season-ending Tour Championship, holding a share of the lead entering the weekend. The Tour Championship has traditionally been a weak draw, with final round ratings ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 the past five years. Expect much stronger numbers this time around. Prediction: 2.0.
The one positive for NASCAR amidst a staggering run of declines is that the bar for success gets lower and lower. Last year’s Richmond race posted a 1.2 rating, tied as the worst for any Cup Series race since at least 2000. Even a 1.3 — which would tie the third-lowest mark since 2000 — would represent an increase. Of course a low bar matters not if the numbers keep declining. Prediction: 1.1.
LAST WEEK’S PREDICTIONS
— NFL: Giants-Cowboys. Prediction: 12.6; result: 11.7
— NFL: Mostly Patriots-Jaguars. Prediction: 12.9; result: 12.0
— CFB: LSU-Auburn. Prediction: 3.0; result: 3.5
— CFB: Ohio State-TCU. Prediction: 3.3; result: 4.2
— CFB: Alabama-Mississippi. Prediction: 2.0; result: 2.3
— NASCAR Playoffs: Las Vegas. Prediction: 1.2; result: 1.3
— MLB: Mostly Dodgers-Cardinals. Prediction: 1.0; result: 0.8
