Ratings Predictions: World Series & More

World Series ratings have been disappointing so far, with Games 1 and 2 both hitting four-year lows. Given the matchup — a pair of tradition-rich, big market teams — expectations were that this year’s Fall Classic would build on the impressive performance of last year’s Astros-Dodgers series.

There are few easy explanations for the weak numbers. Games 1 and 2 were not all-time classics, but they were not routs either. Both teams are appealing, and not just because of their brand or market. The 108-win Red Sox appear to be an all-time great team, and the star-studded Dodgers are back in the World Series after nearly winning it all last year.

One wild card entering the weekend is the impact of Friday’s marathon, 18-inning Game 3. The seven-hour epic should give the World Series some sorely needed buzz. Even so, FOX has its work cut out for it. With Saturday’s Game 4 having a much weaker lead-in than last year (Oklahoma-Kansas State, rather than Penn State-Ohio State), ratings are almost certain to take a hit from last year’s 8.7. Sunday’s Game 5 will face tougher NFL competition than a year ago, which will make it tough to match last year’s high bar (10.5). Predictions: 7.8 and 9.8.

The NFL’s annual head-to-head with the World Series used to be an affirmation of the league’s utter dominance. Sunday Night Football beat the World Series in five of six years from 2010-15, the lone exception being 2011, when NBC was saddled with Saints 62, Colts 7. The script flipped in 2016, with the Fall Classic routing Cowboys-Eagles. Lest one think that was a Cubs-fueled aberration, MLB won again last year, in an even bigger rout of a subpar Steelers-Lions matchup.

With World Series ratings down through two games, and with NBC airing a rematch of last year’s most memorable playoff game, the NFL has a shot on Sunday. Even if it does not win, do not expect another blowout. Prediction: 9.9.

The unbeaten Rams have not had a lot of national TV exposure this season, but that will soon change. L.A. will be featured in the NFL national window for three straight weeks, starting with Sunday’s matchup against Green Bay (airing in 94 percent of markets). There is a decent shot all three games will decline — the comparable windows last year each featured the Cowboys. Even so, expect solid numbers. This week’s game should come close to last year’s 12.7 for Dallas-Washington. Prediction: 12.5.

When the schedule came out in April, Eagles-Jaguars looked like a potential Super Bowl preview. With both teams taking a step back so far this season, that is no longer the case. Even so, the matchup still pits last year’s Super Bowl champions against last year’s AFC title game. Expect ratings to top the two previous London games on NFL Network – Vikings-Browns last year (2.1) and Giants-Rams in 2016 (2.4). Prediction: 2.6.

For the first time since 2008, Florida and Georgia enter their annual rivalry game both ranked in the top ten. That alone should send ratings soaring above last year’s 2.0, the lowest for the rivalry this century. How high will the numbers go? The game has not exceeded a 3.1 rating since 2014 (3.7). Prediction: 3.5.

Outside of Army-Navy, CBS rarely airs any non-SEC games of note. This week is an exception, as the network gets a top-three ranked Notre Dame team in primetime. The last time CBS aired Notre Dame-Navy in primetime, 2014, the game had a 2.3 rating. That game did not face World Series competition. Prediction: 2.0.

No safer bet in sports media than that NASCAR ratings will decline. Last year’s Martinsville race had a 1.7. Prediction: 1.4.