Ratings Predictions: NASCAR Finale & More

2018 has been a miserable year for NASCAR as far as television ratings are concerned. Not counting rainouts, 26 of 31 Cup Series races this season have fallen to all-time or decade-plus lows. Nineteen of the 31 races have had less than a 2.0 rating, including nine with less than a 1.5. Just four years ago, not a single race had less than a 2.3.

It is true that NASCAR is not alone in suffering declines. It is also true that sports TV ratings are cyclical. In just this decade, the NFL went from setting ratings records to incurring the most scrutinized ratings decline in television history. The World Series went from all-time record lows to Cubs-fueled heights, and back to mediocrity again this year. The NBA’s regular season has been on a roller-coaster — up in 2015-16, down in 2016-17, up in 2017-18, and thus far down again in 2018-19.

What makes NASCAR different is the prolonged nature of the declines. NASCAR ratings have been trending downward consistently since 2005. Its trajectory is less reminiscent of the stick-and-ball sports than of American open wheel racing — which after an acrimonious ‘split’ in the 1990s began a decline from which it has yet to recover.

It was just three years ago that NASCAR’s season finale at Homestead scored a 4.4 rating, the highest since 2006. Ratings have dropped in the two years since, falling to a 3.5 in 2016 and a record-low 2.8 last year. A new low seems likely. Prediction: 2.5.

The NFL’s first flex scheduling change this season backfired, as NBC got saddled with a Kansas City rout of Cincinnati. That game had just a 9.5 rating, a season-low at the time. This week’s flex figures to be more successful. The Bears’ resurgence this season is a welcome development for the NFL, giving the league a traditional, big market contender. With NFC North supremacy on the line against Minnesota, expect ratings to hold up well compared to Cowboys-Eagles last season (11.9). Prediction: 11.7.

The Eagles lack the usual cachet of a defending champion thanks to their 4-5 record, but Sunday’s matchup against the surging Saints should still score a healthy increase on FOX. Last year’s comparable window featured a New England wipeout of Oakland, earning a subpar 10.9 rating on CBS. Prediction: 12.4.

Few could have anticipated at the start of the season that Syracuse-Notre Dame would be a top 25 matchup with major playoff implications — hence the 2:30 PM ET start time. Saturday’s matchup is easily the most significant college football game of a light week twelve, and the weak schedule elsewhere should help NBC to a potentially big rating. How big? Syracuse has not been relevant in college football since the days of Donovan McNabb, so the ceiling is probably lower than it would be with another ACC team. Prediction: 3.3.

The College Football Playoff committee has yet to take UCF seriously, but that did not stop ESPN from giving the Knights primetime exposure on ABC’s Saturday Night Football. With so few quality games on the schedule, Cincinnati-UCF has a shot at a decent rating. The only other big game Saturday night – Iowa State-Texas – is on little-watched Longhorn Network. Meanwhile, FOX is saddled with Kansas (against Oklahoma) and ESPN with Duke (against Clemson). In the same window last year, UCLA-USC had a 2.5. Prediction: 2.7.