Ratings Predictions: CFP Semifinals & NFL Week 17

There may be no other sporting event more affected by the calendar than the College Football Playoff. In the two years the semifinals took place on New Year’s Day, ratings ranged from 11.4 to 15.2, with three of the four games above a 13.0. In the two years the semifinals took place on New Year’s Eve, the range was 9.1 to 10.7, with three of the four games in single-digits.

The low ratings and vocal backlash that accompanied the New Year’s Eve games resulted in the College Football Playoff changing its future schedules to avoid the date. This year is the first under the revised schedule. Instead of taking place on Monday as originally scheduled — and having to contend with the workday and with New Year’s parties — the games will air on a Saturday with no meaningful competition.

It stands to reason that ratings will improve over the New Year’s Eve semifinals in 2015 and 2016. It is doubtful, however, that the numbers will match New Year’s Day levels, which are boosted both by the holiday and by the higher-profile nature of the bowls (the Rose and Sugar). Not helping matters is the potential for blowouts in both games.

Cotton Bowl: #3 Notre Dame-#2 Clemson: For just the second time in the 20 year-run of the CFP and its predecessor, the Bowl Championship Series, Notre Dame plays a bowl game with national championship implications. In 2013, their trip to the BCS National Championship scored a 15.1 rating — hefty, but fell short of the record-high expectations leading into the game. There are no such expectations entering Saturday’s semifinal, but with Clemson a 12.5-point favorite, ratings may well disappoint. The Tigers were a weak draw throughout the regular season because the games were never close.

Last year’s early semifinal was the Rose Bowl and had a 13.7 rating. That is out of reach. Two seasons ago, Alabama-Washington had a 10.7 in the early window. Prediction: 10.9.

Orange Bowl: #4 Oklahoma-#1 Alabama: The Orange Bowl features the Heisman Trophy winner and runner-up as Oklahoma and Kyler Murray face Alabama and Tua Tagovailoa. The individual matchup should be enough to attract a big audience, but again, the possibility of a blowout looms. The Tide are a 14-point favorite, and while Notre Dame is a trendy upset pick, there is little expectation that Alabama will lose. If Oklahoma can repeat Georgia’s performance in the SEC Championship Game and push Alabama to the limit, then there is potential for a big rating. Big if. Alabama-Clemson had an 11.4 in the late window last year; Clemson 31, Ohio State 0 had a 9.8 two years ago. Prediction: 12.0.

A common theme in the College Football Playoff format is that the other bowls have taken a hit. Not counting the two years it served as a semifinal, the Rose Bowl has earned ratings of 7.4 and 8.6 in the playoff era. In the final four seasons of the BCS, ratings ranged from a 9.4 to an 11.3, including a 10.2 for the last BCS edition in 2014. This year’s rating should be helped by the presence of Ohio State, which has not made the Rose Bowl since 2009. On the other hand, Washington is not a particularly compelling opponent. Prediction: 8.8.

Like the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl has taken a hit in the playoff era. The game never dipped below a 6.1 rating during the BCS years, with the last edition under the old format scoring a 9.3. Since the playoff started, it has drawn ratings of 5.1 and 5.6 in the years it did not host a semifinal. This year’s game should do better. Texas has a national following that has been dormant during the team’s lean years, and viewers are familiar with Georgia after two highly-rated losses to Alabama. Prediction: 6.3.

For the second straight year, the NFL has a loaded late window on the final day of the season. On CBS, the Ravens will face the resurgent Browns as they try to hold off Pittsburgh for the final AFC playoff spot. FOX has the Vikings trying to lock up the final NFC playoff spot over the defending champion Eagles. Given the stakes, and the teams involved, expect the networks to combine for a large audience. Last year, late window coverage drew an 11.5 on FOX and an 8.7 on CBS. Expect that to flip this year, since CBS has the more significant games. Prediction: 11.2 (CBS) and 10.0 (FOX).

After airing no Week 17 game last year, NBC is back with a win-and-you’re-in matchup between two fairly low-wattage teams, Indianapolis and Tennessee. Do not expect ratings to match the last Week 17 game on NBC, Packers-Lions two years ago (13.0). Despite the stakes, neither team is primetime quality. Prediction: 11.9.

The NHL’s two biggest crutches of the past decade — outdoor games and the Blackhawks — combine again on New Year’s Day. Last-place Chicago is about to play their third Winter Classic in the past five years, as good an indication as any that the NHL has run out of ideas with this event. Ratings have dropped in four straight years, bottoming out at least year’s 1.4. Perhaps the lure of Notre Dame Stadium will be enough for an uptick. Prediction: 1.5.

Kentucky is #16, Louisville is unranked, and Rick Pitino is in Greece. Expect the Kentucky-Louisville rivalry to continue its recent slide. Since the 2014 matchup scored a 2.1 rating on ESPN2, ratings have declined in each subsequent year — sinking to last year’s 1.3. Prediction: 0.9.