Ratings predictions: Kentucky Derby, playoffs and more

In sports TV, there are events that can draw no matter what, and events that need a narrative hook. The Kentucky Derby is a bit of both. Like the Daytona and Indianapolis 500 auto races, the Derby has its own mystique that pulls in viewers who do not otherwise care about horse racing. At the same time, the Derby surely benefited from the annual narrative of the Triple Crown drought, a storyline that carried horse racing for much of the past 20 years. After two Triple Crown winners in four years, any mystique surrounding the feat has largely dissipated.

Since 2015, the last Derby before American Pharoah ended the Triple Crown drought, ratings for the event have fallen 11 percent from a 9.6 to an 8.5. That is not a massive drop, considering that last year’s race was hampered by NBA competition. Still, last year’s 8.5 tied the lowest mark for the event since 2006.

With no NBA in the way this year, ratings should improve. Back to 2015 levels? Probably not for a while. Prediction: 8.8.

Stanley Cup playoff ratings have held up well despite the absence of the usual teams. The Columbus-Boston series has been the strongest draw of the second round, at times even exceeding last year’s comparable Penguins-Capitals games.

Saturday marks NBC’s fourth Stanley Cup playoff game in the post-Kentucky Derby timeslot. The first three, all Penguins-Capitals games, had a 2.4 rating. A higher rating this year would be the best for a first or second round playoff game since NBC acquired rights. Prediction: 2.3.

NBA playoff ratings have been on the decline, but Warriors games have been a noted exception. Six of Golden State’s eight playoff games have increased, including their first two games against Houston. Expect another increase for Saturday’s Game 3, which should exceed the high bar set by Raptors-Cavaliers last year (3.8). ABC has not cracked a 4.0 rating for a Saturday night playoff game since 2012 (Sixers-Celtics Game 7: 4.5). Prediction: 4.2.

Nuggets-Blazers is not exactly a made-for-TV matchup, but Friday’s four-overtime epic should boost national interest in the series. Whether that will be enough to boost the ratings past last year is another story. Overnights for Game 3 increased 11 percent over last year’s comparable game, a rarity in what has been a postseason of subpar ratings. Sunday’s Game 4 will have a more difficult time, thanks to an early 7 PM ET start to avoid HBO’s exhaustively-hyped “Game of Thrones.” In a similar window last year, Rockets-Jazz had a 2.7. Prediction: 2.5.

PGA Tour ratings have not exactly gotten a boost from Tiger Woods’ Masters win. Since the Masters, three of four rounds on broadcast television have declined. Expect that to continue at Quail Hollow this weekend; Tiger Woods played the event last year, and while he finished well out of contention, bad Tiger is better than no Tiger at all. Last year’s final round had a 1.9. Prediction: 1.5.

Ratings have declined for all five Sunday Night Baseball games this season. Can Cardinals-Cubs snap the slide? On the same weekend last year, the same matchup had a 0.9. Prediction: 0.8.