Ratings predictions for the British Open and more. With Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson missing the cut, how far will the season’s final major fall?
British Open final round (8a Sun NBC)
The Tiger effect goes both ways. Last year, Woods returned to the British Open for the first time since 2015 and finished in a tie for sixth. At one point on Sunday, he held a share of the lead. Ratings were unsurprisingly robust, with NBC’s final round coverage netting a 4.3 — the highest since his last win at the tournament in 2006 (4.6).
This year, Woods did not even make the weekend. If his presence was the driving force behind last year’s surge, his absence will surely drive this year’s numbers downward. It certainly does not help that Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy, two of the PGA Tour’s primary consolation prizes, also failed to make the cut.
The biggest name left in the field is arguably Jordan Spieth, with apologies to Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka. Not too long ago, Spieth seemed on pace to become the face of golf in the post-Tiger era. As recently as 2017, he moved the needle like no other young player in the game. If he can narrow the gap with leader Shane Lowry — not likely — perhaps that might keep Sunday’s numbers respectable. The decline will be sharp regardless, especially with start times moved to avoid rain. Prediction: 2.8.
UFC on ESPN (9p Sat ESPN)
The fourth UFC on ESPN main event takes place during the barren wasteland portion of the sporting calendar. The UFC may have much of Saturday night’s sporting audience to itself. Then again, that does not mean much in the month of July. The previous UFC on ESPN main event had a 0.7 last month. Prediction: 0.6.
MLB: Nationals-Braves (7p Sun ESPN)
The Braves make their sixth Sunday Night Baseball appearance of the season this weekend, more than any other team — including the Cubs (five). So far, Atlanta has played in four of the seven lowest rated Sunday night games, with only the season premiere against Philadelphia cracking a 1.0. Prediction: 0.8.
NASCAR Cup Series: New Hampshire (3p Sun NBCSN)
The NBC portion of the NASCAR season has gotten off to a shaky start, with ratings down for Kentucky last week and a rain-delayed Chicagoland race three weeks ago. Can New Hampshire get things back on track? Last year’s race, which was delayed three hours due to rain, had a 1.5. Prediction: 1.5.
NWSL: Chicago-North Carolina (6p Sun ESPN2)
At the end of every Women’s World Cup, the question becomes whether the popularity of the USWNT can carry over into the professional leagues. So far, the answer has been no. ESPN made headlines for acquiring NWSL rights during this year’s Women’s World Cup, but how much of a difference will that make? It depends on your expectations. If you’re expecting the NWSL to break through, a package of games on ESPN2 and ESPNEWS probably is not going to do it. If you’re expecting the numbers to improve over last year on Lifetime, then there is a greater chance of success. Prediction: 0.22.
Ratings predictions returns the weekend of August 24-25.
Previous predictions
— Women’s World Cup Final. Predictions: 9.0 (FOX); 17.4M viewers (combined); results: 7.7; 16.7M
— Gold Cup Final. Predictions: 2.6 (UNI); 1.2 (FS1); results: 2.4; 1.55
— Copa America Final. Prediction: 1.8; result: n.a.
— MLS: Atlanta-New York. Prediction: 1.1; result: 0.9
— NASCAR Daytona 400. Prediction: 2.6; result: 2.1 (PPD to Sunday)
— NBA Summer League: Pelicans-Knicks. Prediction: 0.58; result: 1.0
— MLB: mostly Cubs-White Sox. Prediction: 1.5; result: 1.5
