Ratings predictions: NFL Week 1 and more

It was not so long ago that NFL ratings were an exemplar of stability. It was not just that the numbers were great (the numbers are always great, even today). It was that you knew what to expect. There were fluctuations, even declines, but the numbers settled within a fairly narrow range.

That changed in 2016, the first of back-to-back years of declines that — if modest for any other sport — were substantial by NFL standards. The numbers began to recover last season, but it is hard to know entering 2019 exactly what is in store for television’s premier property.

The ratings for Thursday’s Kickoff Game — the highest in three years — point to a continued recovery. So too should a stacked Sunday slate.

NFL: Steelers-Patriots (8:20p Sun NBC). For the first time since 2003, the defending Super Bowl champions open their season on a Sunday. Steelers-Patriots has been the strongest regular season matchup in the past two years, ranking as the top game of the 2017 season and tying as the top game last year. The stakes were higher then, as those were Week 15 games. Still, expect a strong number on Sunday. Last year’s Bears-Packers game had a 12.5. Prediction: 13.3.

NFL: Mostly Giants-Cowboys (4:25p Sun FOX). Giants-Cowboys is always a marquee matchup, especially early in the season when nether team is out of contention. Intrigue surrounding the Giants’ quarterback situation should give Sunday’s game an added boost. In the same window last year, coverage featuring Cowboys-Panthers had a 13.1. Prediction: 14.0.

NFL: Various teams and times (1 and 4:05p Sun CBS). CBS has the much-hyped Browns headlining its Week 1 slate, but it will be tough sledding for the network to match last year’s strong opener (9.7). Prediction: 8.9.

In the first top ten matchup of the 2019 season, LSU faces Texas in a marquee non-conference clash. It is a no-brainer that ratings will surge over last year’s mere 2.0 for Penn State-Pittsburgh. The only question is if the numbers will hit an early season-high, topping last week’s 4.0 for Auburn-Oregon. Prediction: 4.2.

Clemson spent last season routing nearly every opponent it faced, which was not exactly great for the ratings. The same is likely to be true this season, but Saturday’s matchup against Texas A&M May be an exception. The Tigers are favored by a modest 2.5 touchdowns. In the same window last year, Colorado-Nebraska had just a 2.1. Prediction: 3.3.

Four of the top six Major League Baseball games on cable this season have been Yankees-Red Sox games. This week’s matchup will not make it five of seven, given the football competition. Expect the numbers to improve slightly over last year’s healthy Astros-Red Sox game (1.0). Prediction: 1.2.

For the second-straight — and final — year, the Brickyard 400 takes place on the first weekend of the NFL season. Last year’s race was postponed to Monday, so Sunday will be the first test of the race’s drawing power opposite football. Expect a big drop from 2017, the last time it took place in its old late July date (3.4). Next year, it moves to July 4 weekend. Prediction: 2.0.