Ratings predictions for Games 4 and 5 of the World Series, Packers-Chiefs, the latest top ten college football game and more. Will the Astros’ Game 3 win help turn World Series ratings around?
MLB: Astros-Nationals World Series Games 4 & 5 (8p Sat & Sun FOX)
It will likely take seven games for this year’s World Series to avoid averaging a new record low. The series has already tied the lowest Game 1 rating ever and set a new Game 2 low. While FOX is no doubt grateful that Houston won Friday night, ensuring at least a fifth game, there is no reason to expect anything different over the weekend.
The Saturday night game is typically the lowest rated of any World Series, though it only tied as such the past two years. Meanwhile, Sunday’s Game 5 lacks the usual NFL lead-in as CBS has the Week 8 doubleheader.
Much has been made of the impact of NFL competition on the Fall Classic, but the league’s generous lead-ins have typically boosted Sunday night World Series ratings by a full point over the preceding games. Last year, the 10.0 for the Sunday night Game 5 surpassed the next-best game by 22% (8.2). The last Sunday World Series game to air without an NFL lead-in — Game 5 in 2014 — did not even hit a series-high.
It might take until a potential Game 6 before any game in this series even approaches the 8.0 mark. Predictions: 6.9 and 7.6.
NFL: Packers-Chiefs (8:20p Sun NBC)
The Chiefs’ flirtation with playing an injured Patrick Mahomes this weekend was widely understood to be an unwise proposition, but one imagines NBC was in full support. The Mahomes-Aaron Rodgers quarterback matchup would have pit two of the NFL’s biggest stars for the first — and possibly final — time. Even with the World Series providing competition, it would have likely delivered a strong audience.
As it is, NBC should still expect a solid increase in ratings over last year’s Saints-Vikings game (8.3) — and its first win over the World Series since 2015. Prediction: 9.0.
NFL: mostly Browns-Patriots (4:25p Sun CBS)
The 2-4 Browns are not as good as the NFL’s TV partners would have hoped, but Sunday’s clash with the undefeated Patriots should still do well. For all the criticism of his play, Baker Mayfield is one of the NFL’s more prominent names, and his matchup with Tom Brady carries the built-in student vs. master narrative that the networks like. The prospect of Cleveland upsetting unbeaten New England — however faint — could also keep the numbers healthy. Two weeks ago, CBS drew a solid 12.2 rating for the Cowboys’ loss to the then-winless Jets.
Ratings have a shot of matching last year’s 12.8 for Packers-Rams on FOX. Prediction: 12.5.
CFB: #9 Auburn-#2 LSU (3:30p Sat CBS)
While College Gameday is eschewing the FBS this weekend, that is not for a lack of marquee matchups. Auburn-LSU is the fifth top-ten game this season, and the third on CBS. The network previously earned a 3.9 for Auburn-Florida earlier this month and a 5.4 for Notre Dame-Georgia in primetime last month. Saturday’s results should end up closer to the former than the latter. Prediction: 4.1.
CFB: #13 Wisconsin-#3 Ohio State (Noon Sat FOX)
Illinois beating Wisconsin last weekend considerably reduced the hype for Saturday’s clash between the Badgers and Buckeyes. Even so, the game still features Ohio State in a matchup of top-tier teams. Barring a repeat of Ohio State 59, Wisconsin 0, FOX should score its second-highest rating of the season behind Oklahoma-Texas (4.5). Prediction: 4.2.
CFB: #8 Notre Dame-#19 Michigan (7:30p Sat ABC)
Notre Dame visits Michigan for the first time since 2013 in a game that is expected to be close (Notre Dame is favored by just one point). Michigan’s two losses this season have taken it out of the College Football Playoff picture, but Notre Dame is still in the mix. Combine the potentially narrow margin, playoff implications, and the rivalry itself, and one should end up with a good rating. In the same window last year, Texas-Oklahoma State had a 2.1. The last time Notre Dame played Michigan, in week one of last season, their matchup had a 4.0 on NBC. Prediction: 3.8.
NASCAR Cup Series playoffs: Martinsville (3p Sun NBCSN)
NASCAR had an unusually positive outing at Kansas last week, with ratings up 18 percent to a three-year high. Even in a season marked by a number of increases, the performance stands out. Can it be repeated? Last year’s Martinsville race had a 1.3. Prediction: 1.3.
NHL: Blues-Bruins (7p Sat NBCSN)
One wonders why the NHL would waste a Stanley Cup Final rematch on a night that includes college football and the World Series, but the league has never really scheduled its games with (U.S.) television in mind. Do not expect much of an audience. Prediction: 0.20.
Last week’s predictions
— NFL: Eagles-Cowboys. Prediction: 12.6; result: 12.2
— NFL: mostly Saints-Bears. Prediction: 12.9; result: 13.3
— MLB: Astros-Yankees Game 5. Prediction: 3.6; result: 3.4
— CFB: OSU-Northwestern. Prediction: 1.1; result: n.a.
— CFB: Michigan-Penn State. Prediction: 3.7; result: 4.0
— UFC Fight Night. Prediction: 0.5; result: 0.5
