Ratings predictions for Week 15 of the NFL season, the Heisman Trophy Presentation and more. How will the Cowboys’ losing record impact the ratings?
NFL: mostly Rams-Cowboys (4:25p Sun FOX)
The NFL would no doubt prefer if Dallas was over .500, but the team’s current situation has its own benefits. A number of viewers enjoy watching the Cowboys lose, yet they have not lost enough to drop out of playoff contention in a wretched NFC East. A relevant Cowboys team delivering schadenfreude week after week is a good situation to have. The team’s current three-game losing streak has included the highest rated regular season NFL game since 2015 (Patriots-Cowboys) and the most-watched since 2016 (Bills-Cowboys).
Sunday’s matchup with the Rams looks a little better than it did a few weeks ago, thanks to L.A.’s recent return to the outer edges of the playoff race. Last year’s Patriots-Steelers game set a high bar with a 14.2 rating, but that should be no problem. Every single window to feature the Cowboys this season has increased over last year. Prediction: 14.3.
NFL: Bills-Steelers (8:20p Sun NBC)
After deciding not to flex 49ers-Ravens or 49ers-Saints into NBC’s Sunday Night Football window — arguably the two biggest games of the season so far — the NFL moved Bills-Steelers to Sunday night this week. Buffalo is having one of its best seasons in recent memory and played in the most-watched game of the year on Thanksgiving. Pittsburgh is back in the playoff mix after a rough start and is a perennial draw. Even so, this is not the most attractive of matchups, and ratings will have a tough time matching last year’s middling 10.8 for Eagles-Rams. Prediction: 10.4.
Heisman Trophy Presentation (8p Sat ESPN)
The legend of Joe Burrow continues to grow, but it is hard to imagine that translating into big ratings for the Heisman Trophy Presentation. For one thing, it appears a foregone conclusion that Burrow will win, which is rarely good for ratings. For another, the Heisman presentation has been less and less of a draw in this decade. Last year was a noted exception, with Kyler Murray’s win over Tua Tagovailoa hitting a three-year high with a 1.8 rating. The numbers should fall back this time around. Prediction: 1.6.
CFB: Army-Navy (3p Sat CBS)
The Army-Navy game has been one of the biggest ratings success stories over the past decade, with ratings rising eight straight years until last year’s slight dip. The game has averaged at least a 5.0 rating in three straight years, making it annually one of college football’s highest rated games (albeit with the advantage of facing no other competition). Expect the good times to continue to roll, though another slight dip seems plausible. Prediction: 4.8.
Presidents Cup final round (6p Sat Golf Channel)
On a sleepy December Saturday night, can Presidents Cup golf make a dent in the ratings? It depends on what constitutes a dent. With Tiger Woods in the field and little competition in the way, expect ratings to clock in somewhere above Woods’ win in the ZOZO Championship back in October — which drew a 0.48 on Golf Channel opposite the NFL. Prediction: 0.54.
Last week’s results
— NFL: mostly Chiefs-Patriots. Prediction: 14.6; result: 16.1
— NFL: mostly 49ers-Saints. Prediction: 12.4; result: 10.4
— NFL: Seahawks-Rams. Prediction: 11.6; result: 10.2
— SEC Championship: LSU-Georgia. Prediction: 8.8; result: 7.9
— Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma-Baylor. Prediction: 5.6; result: 5.5
— Big Ten Championship: Ohio State-Wisconsin. Prediction: 6.0; result: 7.6
— ACC Championship: Clemson-Virginia. Prediction: 2.5; result: 2.4
— UFC Fight Night. Prediction: 0.6; result: 0.6
— Golf: World Challenge. Prediction: 1.6; result: 0.9
