Ratings predictions: Conference championships & more

The question at the start of this postseason was how the NFL would weather the absence of familiar names. The Cowboys failed to make the playoffs, and the Patriots and Saints were both knocked out early. The answer thus far has been mixed. The NFL followed up its most-watched Wild Card weekend in four years with its most-watched Divisional Round in three, but ratings declined for three of last weekend’s four games.

This weekend provides another test of how the NFL will fare sans familiar faces. While Sunday’s late game pits two of the most storied teams in football, the early game features a 9-7 Tennessee team that has not made it this far into January since 2003.

AFC Championship: Titans-Chiefs (3p CBS): One only has to go back two years to find the last time an unheralded AFC South team made it to the AFC Championship. The 2018 Jaguars-Patriots title game scored a 24.3 rating — solid for a conference title game, if massive by any other standard — but that was primarily because New England nearly lost.

It seems unlikely that this year’s game will draw as well. The absence of the Patriots, who had played in eight straight AFC title games, is no small matter. The Chiefs may be popular due to their star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but they are not polarizing. People are not going to tune in just to watch them lose — or win. There needs to be a hook, either a compelling opponent or outcome. Unless Sunday’s game is an all-time classic, expect ratings to hit a multi-year low.

Since 2009, the early conference championship window has never dropped below a 24.2 (49ers-Falcons in 2013). Prediction: 22.9.

NFC Championship: Packers-49ers (6:30p FOX): FOX has the benefit of a made-for-TV matchup in the NFC Championship. Packers-49ers pits two storied franchises that each have a national following. Their previous playoff meeting in 2014 still ranks as the highest rated Wild Card game on record (25.8).

Do not expect a similarly historic result this time around. The NFL is not as strong a draw now as six years ago, and the bar is exceedingly high on conference championship weekend. There is no guarantee ratings will increase over last year’s late game, a Patriots-Chiefs overtime thriller that scored a 27.5. It is even possible ratings could fail to match the aforementioned 2014 Wild Card; this year’s San Francisco squad is still fairly unfamiliar to a national audience.

Even so, expect FOX to be more than satisfied. No NFC Championship has surpassed a 25.0 rating in the past five years, a number that Sunday’s game should comfortably clear. Prediction: 25.7.

There are easy explanations for the NBA’s ratings woes this season, most notably the injuries that have decimated the Warriors and kept rookie Zion Williamson sidelined. Even so, the NBA’s biggest problem last season — the perceived inevitability of Golden State — would seem to have been solved. There is a real level of uncertainty this season, maybe even parity, but audiences have not responded. In fact, last year’s viewing habits have worsened. Instead of viewers tuning in mainly for the Lakers and Warriors, now they are tuning in mainly for the Lakers.

It could be that this is just an echo of the 2014-15 season, the first after LeBron James left the Miami Heat. Ratings were down that year and did not really start to pick up until the conference finals. That year’s NBA Finals still ranks as the highest rated since 2001. It can take a bit before new contenders become TV draws.

For now, as the late David Stern once said, the NBA’s best bet is “the Lakers vs. the Lakers.” Saturday’s game against the Rockets should improve over the same matchup last year, which did not involve an injured LeBron James (2.1). Their Martin Luther King Day meeting with the Celtics should comfortably top last year’s Spurs-Sixers game (1.2). Predictions: 2.4 and 1.7.

Duke scored stronger-than-normal ratings throughout last season thanks to Zion Williamson, but the Blue Devils have since fallen back to earth both on the court and in the Nielsens. Less than a week removed from an upset loss to Clemson, Duke faces Louisville in a matchup that should do OK, but not nearly as well as Virginia-Duke in the same window last year (2.3). Prediction: 1.6.

With the holidays now passed, the NHL on NBC has entered ordinary time — a run of Sunday matinees featuring varied combinations of the same East Coast teams NBC showcases every year. This week, a matchup of perennial playoff contenders between the Bruins and Penguins, two of the top three teams in the East. Given how well both teams are doing this season, look for ratings to inch up over last year’s 0.7 for Capitals-Blackhawks. Prediction: 0.8.