Ratings predictions: Derby, playoffs, CFB

A somewhat under-discussed element in this year’s ratings conversation has been the shift of events from their normal dates on the calendar to entirely different seasons. Can you simply pluck the NBA and NHL playoffs from spring, plop them in late summer, and expect the same numbers? So far, the answer has been no.

For events like the Kentucky Derby, and the Indy 500 before it, the calendar is a key part of the appeal. Neither horse nor open wheel racing are particularly popular, but events like the Derby and 500 are marked exceptions in no small part because of their status as American sports traditions. The Indy 500 is always on the Sunday of Memorial Day weekend, except this year, when it fell in the middle of August. While just one factor of many — others including a crowded sports landscape and an empty fanless atmosphere — the loss of that traditional spot on the calendar no doubt contributed to ratings hitting a record-low.

The Kentucky Derby is always on the first Saturday in May, except this year, when it is on the first Saturday in September. One benefit the Derby has over the Indy 500 is that its replacement date is on a holiday weekend. Will that be enough to keep ratings remotely close to last year’s 9.4? That seems incredibly unlikely. No sportscast has cracked even a 4.0 rating since the NFL Draft in April.

The date change is not the only obstacle. So much of NBC’s Derby promotion has to do with the general atmosphere surrounding the event, particularly the non-sports elements such as the fashion choices of attendees, that a massive decline seems almost unavoidable. Add to that the fact that the Derby does not even lead off this year’s Triple Crown, with the first race having taken place months ago. June’s Belmont Stakes averaged a mere 2.0 rating — down 35 percent from last year. That was as dreary as a big-time sporting event can get, the lack of fans particularly conspicuous. The Derby’s decline should be even steeper. Prediction: 3.9.

However far Kentucky Derby ratings fall, the race figures to give the NHL a strong lead-in Saturday night. This is the fifth consecutive year that an NHL game has aired in the post-Derby slot and the ratings have been strong each year — a 2.4 in 2016, 2017 and 2018, and then a 2.6 last year, the highest for any first or second round playoff game ever on the NBC family of networks.

This year, NBC gets a Game 7 in the post-Derby window as the Islanders and Flyers face off in the third winner-take-all game in less than 48 hours. Assuming Derby ratings fall off significantly, it will be difficult for the NHL to match last year’s pace. Even so, expect easily the highest rating of the NHL season. The current high is a 1.15 for the Winter Classic. Prediction: 1.9.

ABC would ordinarily have set aside the Sunday of Labor Day weekend for college football, but in this year of disruption, it instead features an NBA playoff game involving LeBron James. Rockets-Lakers Game 2 is the NBA’s first Sunday night playoff game on broadcast television in 18 years (since Lakers-Kings Game 7 in 2002). With the league’s declining ratings generating the kind of hot air not seen since the NFL three years ago, it comes at an opportune time.

Houston is a marquee team in its own right and after Game 1 is as big a threat to the Lakers as Portland was mistakenly perceived to be in the first round. Given the stars, stakes, network and timeslot, ratings should easily be the highest of the playoffs thus far. While that is not exactly saying much in a year when the current high is a 2.4, one takes what one can get in a year like this. Only three sporting events since the NFL Draft have cracked even a 3.0 rating. The comparable Sunday night window last year aired on TNT and averaged a 2.5. Prediction: 3.1.

The Heat find themselves on the precipice of the NBA’s most surprising sweep since Dallas knocked out the two-time defending champion Lakers nine years ago. Should Miami finish off the top seeded Bucks, do not expect any tears from the NBA’s rights partners. Like Kawhi Leonard‘s Clippers, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks have never proven to be a significant draw. Miami, by virtue of its larger market and semi-recent winning tradition, may well be a better ratings story.

Intrigue in the Heat’s upset bid should give Sunday’s Game 4 one of the better ratings in this year’s playoffs, though matching last year’s 3.0 for Raptors-Sixers will be a tall task. Prediction: 2.3.

In a scheduling move made prior to any cancellations or postponements, NASCAR made Daytona the final race of its regular season and moved up the start of its playoffs to this weekend at Darlington. In prior years, Darlington was the regular season finale and the playoffs opened on the same weekend as the NFL.

The shift should boost ratings for the “Lady in Black,” and not necessarily because the playoffs have any appeal (the ten-race “Chase” has never drawn well). Instead of following a one-week hiatus as in past years, Darlington comes the week after one of the higher-rated races of the season (Daytona had a 2.4 last week). There is no college football competition and NASCAR’s audience overlaps far less with those of the competing NBA or NHL. Finally, last year’s race set such a low bar — a 1.1 for a race that started after 10 PM ET — that it would not take much to deliver a big gain. Prediction: 1.6.

The FedEx Cup lacks its usual finality this season, as the Tour Championship is merely a prelude to the year’s biggest events, the US Open and Masters. Even so, there is still a lot of money on the line, a stacked leaderboard (though neither Tiger nor Phil), and relatively little competition on a national holiday afternoon. The Tour Championship has done well the past two years, averaging a 3.7 for Tiger’s 2018 win (vs. the NFL) and a 2.5 last year (in August). With PGA Tour ratings largely up since the season restarted in June, expect another good result. Prediction: 2.6.

In ordinary times, the three-day Labor Day weekend marks the return of college football, with a full slate of games Saturday and primetime games Sunday and Monday. Not the case this year. Following a smattering of low-wattage games on Saturday, the Labor Day night game is the kind of matchup that would ordinarily air on CBSSN, or maybe ESPN2 after 10 PM ET. BYU and Navy are at least familiar names, but ratings figure to plunge from last year’s 3.3 for Notre Dame-Louisville. One bright side: in this ratings environment, anything above a 1.0 is pretty solid. Prediction: 1.5.