Ratings predictions: NFL Kickoff, NBA and more

In a year of disruption, the NFL season is set to begin on time. There will be a lot of attention on NFL ratings this season or a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the unusual level of competition the league faces. On Thursday alone, the annual Kickoff Game will air opposite an NBA playoff game involving LeBron James, an NHL conference final, and a US Open semifinal involving Serena Williams (though the latter of the three is not so unusual). It will dominate the head-to-head, no doubt doing more damage to the competition than it itself suffers. Even so, it is hard to imagine it will come away unscathed.

Asked by this writer about the competition during a conference call last week, Sunday Night Football executive producer Fred Gaudelli acknowledged the possible toll on the numbers: “Will [the competition] be a factor? I don’t know how it couldn’t be a factor. But as you pointed out, the NFL is the ratings king and there’s not even a close challenger. We feel really good about that, but I think there has to be some kind of impact.”

What will that look like Thursday night? It depends. The trend since the wave of cancellations and postponements in March has been a big return from hiatus, followed by numbers receding to normal (or below average in most cases). While the NFL is starting on time, the lack of preseason games (not to mention big time college football) could result in some unusually high pent-up demand for football. For all intents and purposes, the Kickoff Game is the first football since the Super Bowl. That could more than make up for any competition-related losses.

Then again, Houston-Kansas City is not the greatest possible matchup. The defending champion Chiefs are at the top of the NFL marquee, but the Texans have never been much of a draw. It will be tough for ratings to match the built-in drawing power of last year’s Packers-Bears opener (12.8).

Given all of the competing factors, ratings could go either way. The prediction here is nothing too dramatic one way or the other. Prediction: 12.9.

FOX gets a matchup of superstar quadragenarians Sunday with Tom Brady scheduled to make his Tampa Bay Buccaneers debut against Drew Brees and the Saints. Given the interest in Brady’s move from New England, not to mention former Patriots teammate Rob Gronkowski’s return from retirement, expect one of the strongest NFL regular season ratings in recent years. Last year’s Week 1 national window — mostly Giants-Cowboys — had a 13.5. No Week 1 telecast has cracked a 14.0 rating since 2016. Prediction: 14.9.

With no fans in attendance, the Rams’ opener in their new stadium loses much of its appeal. While the Cowboys are always a draw, it may be tough for Sunday’s game to match last year’s 12.6 for the Patriots’ banner-raising against Pittsburgh. Prediction: 11.9.

NBA playoff games have had to contend with the NFL Draft before, but never an actual NFL game — much less the NFL season opener. Even with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, James Harden and Russell Westbrook sharing the court, it is a virtual lock that Lakers-Rockets Game 4 will underperform the three previous games in the series, each of which averaged at least a 2.0 rating. How low will the numbers go? The 7 PM ET start time minimizes overlap with the NFL Kickoff Game, but also makes it harder to draw in the Lakers’ West Coast fanbase. Prediction: 1.6.

Coming off of a double-overtime thriller that was easily the most-watched game of the series, Celtics-Raptors heads into a decisive seventh game Friday night — the first Eastern Conference game of the postseason to begin in primetime. While the Toronto market does not count toward U.S. TV ratings, the Raptors can draw well under the right circumstances. Their all-time classic win over the Sixers in Game 7 of last year’s semifinals averaged a 4.0 rating on TNT, but that was a Sunday night game (and in May). Expect ratings to finish closer to this year’s previous Game 7, Oklahoma City-Houston in the first round (2.4). Prediction: 2.6.

The US Open women’s semifinals typically holds its own despite facing the NFL Kickoff Game year after year. The added competition this year figures to put a damper on the numbers. Last year’s semis averaged a 1.2. Prediction: 0.8.

ABC’s Saturday Night Football is scheduled to debut this weekend with Clemson facing Wake Forest. In two weeks without power five games, college football ratings have been unsurprisingly subpar. Will the return of marquee teams like Clemson turn things around? If one thing is clear thus far, matchups still matter. On the same weekend last year, a considerably higher-profile LSU-Texas game averaged a 5.0. Prediction: 2.0.

Ratings for the NHL conference finals have not been particularly impressive thus far, and the NFL competition should only make things worse. The only question is how low the numbers can go. Last year’s Sharks-Blues Game 3 did not exactly set a high bar, with a 0.8 rating. Prediction: 0.51.