Just over two weeks after the NBA season finally ended, figuring out when the new one will start is the league’s next challenge.
The NBA could propose a regular season schedule of just 50 games per team if the season starts in mid-January, a sharp reduction from 72 games if it starts on the league’s preferred date of December 22, according to Marc Stein of the New York Times. A 50-game schedule “would reduce player salaries significantly.” ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski contradicted that report later Friday, saying that the league has not raised the idea of conditioning a later start on a shorter schedule.
The start date has emerged as the biggest sticking point between the league and players union in negotiations for next season. NBA union leader Michele Roberts told The Athletic this week that the player response to the December 22 plan has been overwhelmingly negative.
The league, per ESPN, believes that it will suffer upwards of $1 billion in additional losses if the season starts in January — on top of the $4 billion it already expects to lose in gate revenue — and estimates “significant financial turmoil” if games “compete with the Summer Olympics for television ratings in July.”
It bears noting that no matter how low the television ratings go, the NBA’s $2.7 billion/year in rights fees from Disney and Turner is guaranteed through the end of the 2024-25 season. In fact, because media rights deals tend to have built-in escalators, the league could well make more from Disney and Turner in the coming years.
Should the league and players fail to reach agreement on when to start next season — or any of the several other issues yet to be resolved — either side would be able to terminate the collective bargaining agreement. While the CBA is supposed to run through 2024 (with either side having the chance to opt out in 2023), the league’s four-month hiatus earlier this year triggered a Force Majeure clause allowing either side to opt-out early.
Friday was supposed to mark the deadline by which the sides had to reach a deal, but that has been extended to November 6.
Conflict over when to resume play is nothing new to the NBA, or sports in general, this year. The league’s plan to restart the season in a Walt Disney World “bubble” faced no small amount of opposition, and the players seemed poised to abandon the restart in late August. In Major League Baseball, conflict between the league and players over the length of the season nearly caused its cancellation before a single game was played.
[News from Stein/Twitter 10.30, Wojnarowski/Twitter 10.30, ESPN.com 10.30]
