Ratings predictions: Conference championship games and more

In an era of declining sports ratings, the NFL has been no exception. Regular season viewership fell seven percent, followed by a steeper drop for the expanded Wild Card weekend and another seven percent dip for the Divisional Round. All eight playoff windows that can be compared to last year have declined, and seven have hit multi-year lows.

As has been established, the NFL’s declines are the envy of its competition. Over the past year, college football’s national championship and World Series lost more than a quarter of their prior-year audience. The NBA Finals, final round of the Masters and Stanley Cup Final lost half. Seven percent is a dream compared to what other sports have experienced. Can the NFL really brush off across-the-board declines and decade-plus lows just because everyone else is faring worse? Yes. Beyond the fact that the NFL’s declines are comparably modest, the league’s raw numbers are also just too massive to take issue with. No non-NFL sporting event in the past year has cracked 20 million viewers, while all ten NFL playoff games thus far have surpassed that mark. No non-NFL sporting event in four years has had as many viewers as the 30+ million who watched last Sunday’s Divisional Round games. The audience for the final 15 minutes of Browns-Chiefs last weekend (41.77M) was comparable to the swearing in of the new president three days later (39.87M, per Nielsen fast-nationals*).

Perhaps there are advertisers who will turn up their noses at a television property that can repeatedly draw 30+ million viewers, and on an off week still cracks the 20 million mark. Probably not enough to meaningfully jeopardize the NFL’s ability to print money.

Expect ratings to drop again this week, even with high-quality matchups on the schedule. Just remember, as Al Michaels noted the other day, that the NFL is dropping from #1 to #1.

Buccaneers-Packers (3p Sun FOX): Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers meet in the playoffs for the first time as the Buccaneers and Packers vie for their first Super Bowl berths in more than a decade. A few years ago, a matchup like this would have comfortably finished with a rating in the high 20.0 range, maybe even flirting with a 30. Given the recent trends, it may well be hard-pressed to match last year’s 23.1 for Titans-Chiefs in the same timeslot. A 23.0 rating — higher than any basketball game since 1987 — would be the lowest for the early conference championship game since 2009. Prediction: 20.9.

AFC Championship: Bills-Chiefs (6:30p Sun CBS): The Bills seek their first Super Bowl appearance since their run of four-straight defeats in the 1990s, while the Chiefs continue their pursuit of back-to-back titles. Even with Patrick Mahomes cleared to play, the Chiefs are only a narrow favorite. Ratings should be massive by any standard other than the NFL’s own. Since the NFL pushed back its conference championship games to 3 and 6:30 in 2003, the late game has never fallen below a 20.8. Prediction: 20.3.

NBC opened its NHL schedule last weekend with its most-watched indoor regular season game in three years. It no doubt helped that the season was only a few days old. Expect a more modest result for this week’s scheduled matchup of old rivals Detroit and Chicago. Prediction: 0.8.

The hype surrounding Conor McGregor’s return seems likely to result in higher-than-usual ratings for Saturday’s UFC 257 prelims. The last PPV prelims in December had only a 0.28 rating, but that aired on ESPN2. When McGregor last fought a year ago, prelims averaged a much higher 1.1 rating on ESPN. Prediction: 0.8.