Ratings predictions: NFL Week 1, CFB and more

The NFL is back and bigger than ever. The seventeen-game, eighteen-week schedule is set to begin Thursday night with a blockbuster Kickoff Game between Tom Brady’s defending champion Buccaneers and the always high-profile Cowboys. The NFL fared better than most last season, its regular season ratings declining just seven percent, but the Super Bowl left a bad taste with its lowest rating and viewership in more than a decade.

There is a general sense that ratings will bounce back from last year, much as they did in the other sports that saw much steeper declines. It is worth noting that for most of those sports, from the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup to The Masters, ratings jumped double-digits from last year but still remained in historically low territory. While the NFL does not have nearly as much ground to make up versus 2019, there is no guarantee that ratings will return to what had been ‘normal.’

NFL Kickoff Game: Cowboys – Buccaneers (8:20p Thu NBC): Dallas is a rarity on the Kickoff Game schedule, having made just one previous appearance back in 2012. The NFL has not in the past needed Dallas for the Kickoff to draw well. As ratings have slipped in recent years — as Al Michaels routinely notes, falling “from #1 to #1” — the Kickoff Game has been a hit or miss draw. Last year’s 11.2 rating, diminished by the times and by unprecedented NBA and NHL competition, tied the lowest mark since 2008. Hence, the NFL goes with one of its best possible pairings, America’s team versus the greatest quarterback in league history, to juice the numbers.

How high will the ratings rise? College football’s week one speaks to some level of anticipation for ‘real’ football, i.e. that which is played in front of roaring throngs rather than empty seats — or worse, cardboard cutouts. Can the NFL follow suit? Even with Brady and the Cowboys, there is no guarantee ratings will reach the 12.8 Packers-Bears drew in 2019. The reality is that a 12.8 is an onerous bar to clear in the current television landscape. Prediction: 12.0 rating, 21.8M viewers.

NFL national window: mostly Packers – Saints (4:25p Sun FOX): With the expansion of the NFL schedule to eighteen weeks, FOX and CBS will air competing doubleheaders in Week 1 of the season for the first time. Competing doubleheaders have been norm in Week 17 for years, and it is worth noting that the Week 17 national window is usually among the lowest rated of the season for both networks. Expect similar ratings cannibalization for Sunday’s matchups. FOX scored a 13.2 rating for coverage featuring Buccaneers-Saints last year and will be lucky to come close to that this time around. Prediction: 9.9, 17.4M.

NFL national window: mostly Browns – Chiefs (4:25p Sun CBS): CBS gets an AFC playoff rematch in its first national window of the season. As with FOX, expect CBS to see a lower than usual rating in that 4:25 PM ET window due to the cannibalization. If the networks are not too pleased, the NFL will likely have few complaints as there should be more viewers watching in that window overall than last year. Prediction: 8.7, 16.6M.

Monday Night Football: Ravens – Raiders (8:15p Mon ESPN/ABC): ESPN seems destined to open its season with its highest Week 1 NFL rating in at least six years. The NFL has done away with the season-opening Monday Night Football doubleheader, a good idea on paper that ultimately meant ESPN had one game in an unusually early timeslot and another in an unusually late window. The result in recent years was often a pair of mediocre ratings. A solo game in a familiar timeslot should help matters, as should an ABC simulcast. The longtime home of MNF simulcast three games last season, the three-highest rated Monday night games of the season at a 9.2, 8.4 and 8.2. Expect similar results this time around. Anything above 7.8 would be the highest Week 1 MNF rating since 2015. Prediction: 8.9, 15.6M.

FOX is set for a top 25 matchup involving Ohio State as the Buckeyes host Oregon Saturday afternoon. The Buckeyes have been gold for FOX, playing in the network’s five most-watched games ever (excluding bowl and conference championship games). This week’s game sounds like a candidate to join the list, but there are some reasons to temper expectations. The Buckeyes are a two-touchdown favorite, and that 9 AM local timeslot may blunt any West Coast audience tuning in for the Ducks. Expect a strong number, but do not be surprised if figures fall short of Ohio State-Minnesota on FOX last Thursday (3.5, 6.30M). Prediction: 3.0, 5.45M.

The Iowa-Iowa State rivalry has greater resonance than perhaps ever this year as both teams are ranked in the top ten. Ratings will of course vault past the rivals’ previous meeting two years ago, which had a mere 0.6 and 1.17 million on FS1. The better question is how much this matchup will resonate beyond the Hawkeye State. In a similar window two years ago, ABC drew a 4.0 and 6.48 million for Texas A&M-Clemson. That will probably be well out of reach. How about matching last week’s Alabama-Miami laugher (3.0, 5.67M)? Prediction: 2.8, 5.14M.

The Yankees and Mets face each other on the 20th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks Saturday night. It is hard to gauge what kind of audience will watch this game. For those who want to mark the anniversary, there are more meaningful ways to observe such a somber occasion. For those who just want to watch a ballgame, it is football season and there are plenty of other options than a September baseball game. Would people tune in en masse for Yankees-Mets during football season in any other circumstance? If not, it is hard to imagine they will tune in for this one. Expect a typical September baseball audience. Prediction: 1.2, 1.83M.

Novak Djokovic’s quest for the calendar Grand Slam is set to continue Friday. It was a Friday semifinal six years ago when Serena Williams’ quest for the calendar slam collapsed against an unheralded opponent. Djokovic theoretically faces more danger against Alexander Zverev. It does not seem as if Djokovic’s run to the calendar slam is making many waves beyond tennis, but the historic nature of his run should lift ratings past last year’s 0.54. Prediction: 0.62, 999K.