Ratings predictions: World Series, Michigan-MSU and more

World Series ratings are up double-digits through the first two games, but that is not exactly saying much. Last year’s Fall Classic, like so many events in the fog and slog of 2020, did not just set an all-time record low rating – it obliterated the previous mark. Just as with the Bucks-Suns NBA Finals in July, last year’s ratings were so low that any matchup this year was guaranteed to increase.

An anomaly like last year is perhaps the only way a World Series like Astros-Braves — traditionally not just an NLDS, but a lower-profile NLDS — could increase double-digits. Ratings for Games 1 and 2 increased 20 and 14 percent respectively, but still ranked among the ten lowest rated World Series games on record. Figures for Friday’s Game 3 nailbiter were not immediately available, but World Series ratings tend to bottom out on Friday and Saturday nights.

Game 4 should have particular difficulty Saturday night due to some major college football competition. Penn State-Ohio State is not quite the formidable matchup it looked like a week ago, thanks to Penn State’s embarrassing loss to Illinois, but it is still a matchup of Big Ten powers that should siphon away some viewers. Ratings will surpass last year’s mere 4.8, but do not expect them to exceed the low 5.0 range.

One positive for the World Series is that Game 5 gets an NFL lead-in Sunday night. FOX has Buccaneers-Saints in 92% of markets leading into the game, and while NBC will provide tough competition with the Cowboys facing the Vikings, an NFL lead-in usually cancels out the negative impact of NFL competition. Game 5 should hit a season-high and approach baseball’s highest rating in two years. Believe it or not, no baseball game has cracked even a 6.9 rating since 2019.

It is fair to wonder how much the low ratings for this year’s World Series can be attributed to a “new normal” (forgive the use of that most obnoxious term) or to the bad luck of a weak matchup. This is the same MLB Postseason that opened with a bang for Red Sox-Yankees and generated strong numbers for Dodgers-Giants. The entire conversation about the Fall Classic is different if the Dodgers stay healthy, if the Red Sox maintain their torrid offensive pace, if the Yankees finally live up to the hype. As some have noted, it is perhaps ridiculous to judge the health of a sport on an event that is as matchup-dependent as the World Series. Then again, and this applies to the NBA as well, if your marquee event does not have a strong enough floor to withstand a weak matchup, that is a problem worth fixing. Predictions: 5.3 and 9.62M on Saturday, 6.6 and 12.01M on Sunday.

A top-ten matchup of heated rivals highlights the college football schedule this weekend. Not much was expected out of either of these teams to start the season, but Michigan and Michigan State entered the day both 7-0. FOX will of course score the highest college football rating of the weekend – the only other marquee game faces World Series competition – but the real question is whether it will deliver the best rating of the season. The current mark is 4.6 for Georgia-Clemson in week one. The current FOX season-high is not much lower, a 4.3 for Oregon-Ohio State in week two. Prediction: 5.1, 9.65M.

As mentioned previously, Penn State-Ohio State looked like a much better matchup before the Nittany Lions’ ridiculous, nine-overtime loss to Illinois last weekend. As it is, it remains a top 25 rivalry game involving Ohio State. If the game is closer than the 20-point spread, ABC should get a strong rating even with the World Series providing competition. The same matchup in the same window last year averaged a 3.45, albeit with no World Series competition. A similar rating could be considered a win. Prediction: 3.4, 5.96M.

After a few years when the World Series won out, the NFL has resumed dominating its annual head-to-head with the Fall Classic. Last year, a hastily-rescheduled Seahawks-Cardinals game (7.9, 14.31M) cruised past Dodgers-Rays Game 5 (5.3, 10.06M). Two years ago, a marquee Packers-Chiefs game (10.4, 18.32M) crushed Astros-Nationals (6.5, 11.39M). Key to that domination is the fact that the World Series did not have an NFL lead-in in either of those years. The last time the Fall Classic got an assist from the NFL, baseball won the head-to-head with Red Sox-Dodgers (10.0, 17.63M) comfortably ahead of Saints-Vikings (8.3, 14.09M).

While the World Series does have an NFL lead-in this year, do not expect a repeat. Ratings are just too low now for a World Series win to be a realistic possibility. In Week 8 last year (after the World Series ended), Cowboys-Eagles had a 9.5 and 16.93 million. Prediction: 8.7, 15.99M.

The Buccaneers have headlined three of the five highest rated NFL windows this season, with Tom Brady’s return to New England and the season opener against Dallas holding the top two spots. With that said, the defending champions are not an automatic ratings draw. Just last week, their snoozer against Chicago headlined a national window on CBS that had a mere 9.3 rating – the lowest for the late doubleheader game in any week of the season since 2017 (not counting weeks when both FOX and CBS air doubleheaders).

This week’s matchup with New Orleans should fare better, if for no other reason than the game should be closer. Tampa Bay is favored by less than a touchdown over a Saints team that has lost some marquee appeal with the retirement of Drew Brees. Expect ratings to fall short of last year’s 12.0 for coverage featuring Saints-Bears. Prediction: 11.0, 21.89M.

Hard as it may be to believe, the NASCAR season has reached its penultimate week. Excluding a makeup race at Talladega, seven of the last nine races have posted an increase in viewership, and one of the two exceptions can be explained by a move from broadcast to cable. That seems to bode well for Martinsville, which last year scored a higher-than-usual 1.7 and 2.72 million in its new position as the second-to-last race of the season. No race has cracked a 1.8 rating since Daytona in August. Prediction: 1.7, 2.75M.