Ratings predictions: Christmas sports and more

The NFL has always taken a somewhat casual approach to the Christmas Day holiday. While the NBA usually sets aside its highest-profile games for December 25, the NFL is not quite as selective. Thanksgiving is the big NFL holiday and Christmas — a date that does not always fall on a day of the week when the NFL plays games — is a mere bonus.

The league’s approach seems to be changing. Its new media rights deals, which do not go into full effect for another couple of years, include a Christmas Day game on FOX every year the schedule allows. This year’s holiday schedule features four playoff contenders, including a high-profile Packers-Browns matchup that could have comfortably anchored a late Sunday afternoon window.

The Browns are not particularly good this season, their .500 record putting them firmly in the “in the hunt” section of the networks’ playoff graphics. Nonetheless, Cleveland remains one of the league’s highest-profile teams. Green Bay, of course, is both high-profile and quite good. Ratings and viewership should top last year’s already-strong 8.9 and 20.1 million for Saints-Vikings. Prediction: 9.5, 22.1M.

Few could have expected Golden State to return to contention quite so fast after two years in the lottery. Meanwhile, Phoenix was not taken completely seriously after last year’s Finals run and it would not have been shocking if they fell back to the pack this season. Credit the NBA for having the foresight, or perhaps the luck, to schedule these teams against each other on Christmas.

Beyond the fact that both teams have played well all season, they also enter Christmas with their best players in the line-up. In an NBA season thus far ruined by the dreaded ‘health and safety protocols,’ any game that features the stars viewers tune in to see is a rare treat.

If only the NBA had known back in August that Warriors-Suns would be so good on paper and Nets-Lakers comparably mediocre. Perhaps then the game would have been scheduled for a less-competitive 8 PM ET window rather than going head-to-head with Packers-Browns. As it is, the NFL will put a low ceiling on just how well this game can do. Last year, Nets-Celtics had just 4.28 million viewers, ABC’s smallest Christmas NBA audience since 2002 (when the same matchup had 3.96 million). Viewership will rise, but probably fall well short of 2019 — when Rockets-Warriors drew 6.55 million sans-NFL. Prediction: 2.6, 5.55M.

NFL Network gets an exclusive Christmas night game this year as the suddenly-slumping Cardinals face the Colts. Arizona’s loss last week against lowly Detroit takes some of the shine off of their strong season, but they still rank among the NFC’s top contenders. Indianapolis is coming off an impressive win over New England. Back in August, there was some question as to whether a relatively low-profile game on NFL Network could really outdraw a Nets-Lakers NBA Finals preview. No real question now. Expect an NFL win.

The last time NFL Network had an exclusive Christmas game, Steelers-Ravens in 2016, it had a network-record 14.8 million viewers. Prediction: 5.3, 13.1M.

The Lakers are not good, and they are severely shorthanded. The Nets are good, but they are also severely shorthanded. Instead of LeBron James against Kevin Durant in a litmus test game between the NBA’s dominant powers, Nets-Lakers pits a middling, sub-.500 Lakers squad against some pale imitation of the Nets that features James Harden and little else. When the schedule was first announced, one could envision this matchup edging the NFL game head-to-head. Now, not so much. Expect ratings and viewership to actually fall short of last year’s Mavericks-Lakers game, which did not face the NFL (3.0, 7.01M). Prediction: 2.8, 5.97M.

The Cowboys return to Sunday Night Football this weekend against their primary rivals from Washington. SNF has cracked a double-digit rating and 18 million viewers in consecutive weeks after failing to do so for the previous nine Sundays. Can this matchup make it three in a row? Titans-Packers last year had a 9.9 and 18.37 million. Prediction: 10.2, 19.03M.