Ratings predictions: NFL Divisional Round and more

The NFL playoffs got off to a strong start last weekend with across-the-board increases for the six-game, three-day Wild Card weekend. While the Cowboys’ first round defeat takes some of the wind out of the league’s sails, it is reasonable to expect another strong weekend in the Divisional Round.

49ers-Packers (8:15p Sat FOX): The Saturday night Divisional Round game is not exactly a ratings bonanza by NFL standards, but it can pop with the right matchup. 49ers-Packers would seem to fit the bill, given it was just eight years ago that the same two teams brought in a whopping 47 million viewers in the Wild Card round — still the largest audience on record for a Wild Card game. A similar number is out of the question Saturday night (the 2014 game aired in the late Sunday window), but it would seem reasonable to expect a strong rebound over last year’s (relatively) low 26.24 million for Ravens-Bills. Back in 2013, the same matchup in the same window drew 30.89 million. Prediction: 17.0, 31.01M.

Rams-Buccaneers (3p Sun NBC): The NFL’s shift to a 3/6:30 PM ET schedule for the Sunday Divisional Round games has significantly benefited the early window. The early game failed to crack the 30 million mark in 2019, the last time it aired in the 1:00 slot, but averaged 35.4 and 34.3 million in the first two years in the 3:00 slot. Tom Brady’s presence should keep the good times rolling on Sunday as the Buccaneers face the Rams.

The NFL would no doubt have preferred that the Cowboys won last week, thus setting up what would have been one of the most-anticipated — and most-watched — NFL games in recent memory between Brady and the Cowboys. The Rams are not much of a consolation prize given what could have been (one could envision an average of 50 million viewers for a Dallas-Tampa Bay game). Nonetheless, if Rams-Bucs is as competitive as the oddsmakers think (Tampa is favored by a field goal), viewership should still be massive (if not historic). Prediction: 18.9, 36.13M.

Bills-Chiefs (6:30p Sun CBS): An AFC Championship rematch caps the Divisional Round as the Bills face the Chiefs Sunday evening. Despite their small market size, the Bills are a familiar team with a compelling underdog story. Kansas City in the Mahomes era has established itself as one of the NFL’s premiere draws. In the same window last year, Buccaneers-Saints drew 35.46 million. That was a matchup of Brady and Brees, but it was also played in a virtually empty stadium, which may have depressed viewership a bit. Look for Sunday’s game to finish closer to Seahawks-Packers two years ago, which scored 37.24 million. Prediction: 19.3, 37.10M.

CBS leads into Bills-Chiefs with a matchup of traditional college basketball programs Michigan and Indiana. College basketball has led into the CBS Divisional Round game in each of the past two years, drawing healthy numbers both times. Do not expect a repeat. Unlike those previous games, which aired in a Noon ET window free of NFL competition, Sunday’s game faces Rams-Buccaneers head-on. Expect a sharp drop from Indiana-Michigan State last year (1.63M). Prediction: 0.6, 1.02M.