In part two of his examination of the Apple-MLS deal, guest writer Adam Gostomelsky analyzes whether it is good for the league. Part one is here.
In the 1990-1991 English soccer season, two years before the English game was reformed with the creation of the Premier League, there were just eighteen live league games on television, with the first match on in November — three months into the season! The following year would be the first in a new, groundbreaking TV deal with Sky Sports, a deal that promised to put soccer at the forefront with special coverage given to truly grow the game in the UK. In many ways, the richest soccer league in the world today owes its creation to that pivotal moment in deciding to partner with Sky Sports.
On June 14, Major League Soccer reached its own revolutionary media rights deal by becoming the first major sports league to sell their entire broadcasting rights to a streaming company — Apple. Will this trailblazing ten-year agreement have the same potential to vault MLS into the upper echelon of American sports just like Sky Sports and the Premier League did a little more than 30 years ago?
The Good
The Money
Given MLS began negotiations with a target figure of $300 millinon per year — a number that seemed more and more out of reach as its self-imposed March deadline came and went — $250 million ($300 million when you include the smaller linear deals to come) is an incredible deal for the league. It represents an approximate 450% increase over the old $65 million linear TV deal and will allow MLS teams to spend more money on the field — a key point as six of the 12 most expensive transfers in MLS history have come in the last 2 years.
The Programming Product
The details in this contract solve a lot of the most frustrating problems for fans and executives alike. First, games will be broadcast in 1080p, not 720 or even 1080i, meaning the grainy feeds appearing on ESPN+ and even on linear television should be a problem of the past. Second, this deal removes any blackout restrictions that many fans complained about with the ESPN+ deal. For programming, every game will have a national pre-game, halftime, and post-game show, with teams having the option to include local coverage before and after the national programming. Similar to how Sky Sports brought Premier League coverage front and center and made it a staple, these elements should help MLS create the feeling of an event for each game and will put an end to having prior programming bleed into their scheduled time slot. The promised “consistent scheduling” of Wednesday and Saturday night games should move MLS in the direction of claiming a distinctive time block on the American sports schedules akin to the NFL or college football. Adding the new whiparound show should make it more digestible to follow a league the size of MLS while also creating opportunities for new analysts and personalities to cover the league.
It’s Apple
It’s never hurts to be associated with one of the largest and most innovative companies in the world. Especially when said company wants to show how it can operate with live sports. For the first time it seems MLS will have a partner with a vested interest in expanding MLS programming beyond the two-hour gameday. Behind-the-scenes content and original programming will be part of this deal, giving MLS one of the best storytelling brands in the world as its partner with the North American 2026 World Cup just a few years away. Huge potential, with maybe no better partner in the world to help realize it.
The Bad
Loss of Regional Sports Networks
While MLS will still be on linear TV, with those deals being finalized in the near future, there will a decreased presence and complete elimination of local broadcasts. For a league that needs to grow, putting all matches behind a paywall that only the current fans would pay for seems to be counterintuitive. How do you get “new fans” is the biggest question going into this deal. While ESPN and FOX ratings have been stale the past couple of years, the ability to garner new fans “stumbling” their way onto the local RSN will disappear. In addition, with more and more streaming services creating more and more segmentation in entertainment you could lose fans who may choose to leave Apple TV+ out of their streaming service rotation. This is no doubt a risky move putting the product behind a paywall and trying to grow at the same time.
Apple’s Business Interests
$250 million a year is, per Front Office Sports, 0.13% of Apple’s iPhone sales in 2021, or approximately 11.5 hours of iPhone sales. It’s a drop in the bucket and it will hardly be the only thing Apple experiments with in live sports before the end of the deal in 2032. Prior to MLS, they had already secured “Friday Night Baseball” in an $85 million deal with MLB. The NBA’s contracts with ESPN and Turner run out in 2025 and streaming rights will almost certainly be a part of the conversation. The risk here is that for a company that reported $378.35 billion in 2021, if MLS doesn’t move the needle enough, it could fall down the priority list. Ironic considering one of the main motivations to move away from linear TV was to gain relevancy.
The Unknown
MLS Production Arm
While the money received in the deal is a massive win for the league, it will spend an estimated $60 million a year on producing the games in-house, which does not include any of the upfront costs they will undertake since they have to build out that entire arm of the operation. Having everything centralized is the NFL way of operating (coincidentally where MLS commissioner Don Garber worked before coming to MLS) and no league has been more successful in the media than the NFL. There are so many unanswered questions about what the production will look like and how it will feel that only time will tell if this was the right move.
How Good is the Original Programming?
One of the best parts about this deal is the increased storytelling, a feature MLS has sorely lacked. The successes and failures of players and coaches, the legendary moments and the history of the league is not well-documented, but the potential is huge. The resurgence of Formula One in the United States after the release of Drive to Survive on Netflix is well documented and is something that MLS needs to replicate. Sports docuseries on streaming services have seen recent success. The Last Dance was a cultural phenomenon while soccer-related shows such as Sunderland ‘til I Die or All or Nothing ran for multiple seasons. Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenny purchased Wrexham AFC specifically to make a Netflix documentary about their journey.
Whether via a series that follows a 16-year-old on his way to US stardom, or by replicating the award-winning work of NFL Films in the behind-the-scenes world, or chronicling the next arrival of a global superstar (Messi in Miami?), original programming has to be a success and put MLS into the social conversation of American sports.
What Does 2032 Look Like?
A ten-year deal is always a risk in this ever-changing environment, but especially so when the 2026 World Cup is just four years away. There will almost certainly be a bump in soccer popularity in the United States after that, just as there was in 1994. It is possible that come the conclusion of this deal, it might be viewed as a missed opportunity to capitalize on what is a once in a lifetime opportunity to grow the game. Only time will tell.
Concluding thoughts
If you are an MLS executive, you have to be thrilled at the money and the prospect of working with Apple. If you are a fan, you have to be thrilled to see MLS games being put on an elevated platform and given the care and attention that the other four major leagues have been getting for some time. The deal is neither perfect nor without risk, but it does give MLS the chance to move the needle, something that did not seem like had been happening at a quick enough pace with the league’s linear TV partners. The wholesale shift of live sports to streaming services was going to happen at some point, and with MLS taking the leap and making the bet on a future of streaming, for better or for worse it will have a part to play in the future of sports media. That alone makes this deal one to follow in the future.
