It has been five long years since the sports world was this slow in the month of July. Last July featured the NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Final and Summer Olympics. July two years ago marked the return of sports after four months of misery, with Major League Baseball, the NBA and NHL either starting or resuming their seasons. Three years ago, there was the Women’s World Cup. Four years ago, the men’s World Cup.
With sports finally back on schedule and no Summer Olympics or World Cup (this year’s World Cup is in November to accommodate host-nation Qatar’s high temperatures), the two months between the end of the NBA and NHL seasons and the start of the college football features just a smattering of major events — two of which are coming in the next 72 hours.
Will we see the “Rory effect” at the British Open?
Tiger Woods’ incredible resurgence in 2018 and 2019, which he capped with the greatest victory of his career at the 2019 Masters, reset expectations for what he was capable of. Out of nowhere, Woods went from missing tournaments — and missing the cut when he did play — to a legitimate contender. Then came more back surgery and, almost immediately afterward, a car accident that nearly cost him his leg and life. Hopes of a sustained return to glory, stoked by a surprisingly decent run at this year’s Masters, have since faded into resignation. One can never say never with Tiger Woods, but that two-year run now looks like lightning in a bottle.
Woods’ resurgence gave the golf industry a reprieve. Throughout Woods’ previous lulls, the sport had a hard time finding its next draw. In the mid-2010s, Jordan Spieth looked like he could be the next main attraction, but he has not been the same player since winning three majors by age 24. Prior to Spieth, the next big thing was Rory McIlroy. He too fell off after early promise, but he enters Sunday’s final round of the British Open at St. Andrews an impressive 16 under par — tied for the lead with Victor Hovland and four shots clear of the next-best player.
McIlroy never reached Tiger’s level as a television draw (neither has Spieth), but just as one does not need to match Tiger’s on-course achievements to have a successful career, one does not need to match his drawing power to move the needle. Last year’s final round averaged a 2.5 rating, the same as the previous edition in 2019. In 2018, when Woods briefly took the lead on Sunday and finished in the top ten, the final round rating was 4.3. Split the difference and you get a 3.4, not a bad number at all in this environment. Realistically, the number will probably come in a few tenths shy of that mark, but anything in the 3.0 range would be right in line with the final rounds of the PGA Championship (3.1) and U.S. Open (2.9), no small feat given the difference in timeslots.
The last time McIlroy won a major — the 2014 PGA Championship — the final round rating was a 5.3, the kind of rating the final round of the Masters gets these days. McIlroy outdueled Phil Mickelson in a memorable finish that went past sunset. Hovland is far less known than Mickelson, but a similar duel should give NBC something to brag about on Tuesday. Already, the network is touting viewership for the first two rounds as the best since it began airing the tournament in 2016.
British Open, final round, main telecast window (9a Sun NBC). Prediction: 2.9 rating, 5.22M viewers.
Will this be the year that the Home Run Derby outdraws the All-Star Game?
MLB All-Star Game viewership is not as bad as it looks. Last year’s audience (8.24 million, pending revision) was the second-smallest in the history of the game, but outpaced the previous edition in 2019 — no small feat given the headwinds facing all of television since then. Viewership has been in steady decline for more than two decades, but outside of a few years when the Pro Bowl surged ahead, the Midsummer Classic has remained pro sports most-watched All-Star game even as its audience has dwindled. Last year’s audience exceeded this year’s Pro Bowl and NBA All-Star Game by well over a million viewers.
For a network like FOX, which has not cracked even three million viewers in primetime since the NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 on Memorial Day weekend, it is a luxury to air a program that can reliably draw in the neighborhood of eight million viewers. To be sure, the All-Star Game is not exactly surging in popularity. Nonetheless, it is a bit more resilient of a draw than it gets credit for.
With that said, ratings in the key demographics do not hold up nearly as well as overall. In adults 18-34 and 18-49, the MLB All-Star Game has lagged behind its NFL and NBA counterparts for years. It has also begun to lag behind the Home Run Derby, losing the head-to-head last year by 23 percent in 18-49 (2.3 to 1.8) and a whopping 48 percent in 18-34 (1.9 to 1.3). The Derby will surely win in those demos again this year, and given its younger skew has a realistic chance of catching and surpassing the All-Star Game at some point. Probably not yet, though (especially with Shohei Ohtani skipping the event).
MLB All-Star Game (8p Tues FOX). Prediction: 4.2, 7.91M.
MLB Home Run Derby (8p Mon ESPN/ESPN2). 2.9, 5.87M.
Additional predictions
MLB Draft, first round (7p Sun ESPN/MLBN). The MLB Draft returned to ESPN two years ago when the network was desperate for any live programming. Now it is an annual staple and airs in the network’s Sunday Night Baseball slot. Last year’s first round coverage topped the million-viewer mark, including 781,000 on ESPN. Expect similar results this time. Prediction: 918K.
NBA Summer League: Trail Blazers-Knicks (3p Sun ESPN). The NBA Summer League championship moves to a Sunday afternoon this year after airing on a weeknight last year. Realistically, how much does a timeslot matter for the ultimate niche draw? Probably not very much. Expect an audience similar to last year (435K, pending revision). Prediction: 465K.
ESPY Awards (8p Weds ABC). The ESPY Awards returns to its usual format and its normal place on the calendar, the night after the MLB All-Star Game. Viewership will surely surge ahead of the past two years, but can it get back to the 2019 level of nearly four million viewers (3.87M)? Prediction: 2.97M.
Previous predictions
— Stanley Cup Final Game 6. Prediction: 3.1, 5.38M; result: 2.9, 5.82M.
— NASCAR Cup Series: Nashville. Prediction: 2.2, 3.72M; result: 1.8, 2.91M.
— Men’s CWS Final Game 2. Prediction: 1.1, 1.88M; result: 0.9, 1.54M.
— MLB: Dodgers-Braves. Prediction: 0.8. 1.42M; result: 1.90M (ESPN+ESPN2).
