Ratings predictions for Game 6 (and potentially Game 7) of the World Series, Week 9 of the NFL, a pair of top-ten SEC clashes and the season finales of NASCAR and MLS.
Are these World Series ratings any good?
Two years removed from the rash of record-low ratings that accompanied sports’ return from hiatus, it is increasingly obvious that the bar for success has lowered. The kind of numbers that would have once been cause for concern now pass without raising an eyebrow. Through five games, the World Series is averaging 11.64 million viewers — the same as in 2019. That is the good news. The bad news is that the five-game average in 2019 was an all-time low at the time — meaning that it has taken the Fall Classic two years just to claw its way back to what used to be record-low territory. (Adding insult to injury is the fact that this year’s numbers include out-of-home data and the 2019 figures do not.)
On the other hand, it is hard to take issue with an average in the 11 million range given the ongoing state of the industry. The World Series continues to dominate (most) nights for FOX, a network that last week averaged 925,000 viewers for a new episode of “Welcome to Flatch.” If older-skewing, its audience is not far off of what the NBA Finals averaged in June — a competitive, marquee matchup of Stephen Curry’s Warriors and the Boston Celtics. It even outdrew the NFL head-to-head for the first time in five years, though caveats abound (not the least of which is that the NFL game aired on Amazon Prime). Winning nights and keeping pace with the other major events is more than enough to satisfy FOX and MLB.
To be sure, this Fall Classic will almost certainly finish as the least-watched on record outside of the past two years. It is entirely possible that Game 6 — the first to take place on a Saturday night since 2003 — will end up as the least-watched sixth game on record, especially given the college football competition. (The current low is 12.82 million for Rays-Dodgers two years ago.) Game 7 is more certain to hit a record-low, as it would face NBC’s Sunday Night Football without aid of an NFL lead-in. No seventh game has ever averaged fewer than 23 million, and that figure might be hard to reach even without the NFL factor.
Simply put, one takes what one can get in this era. 20 years ago, Game 7 of the World Series outdrew Sunday Night Football (then on ESPN) by the margin of 30.9 to 5.2 million viewers. These days, MLB would gladly take a win of any size. The definition of success is no longer what it was 20 years ago, or even five.
World Series Game 6: Phillies-Astros (8p Sat FOX). Prediction: 6.8, 13.31M.
World Series Game 7, if necessary: Phillies-Astros (8p Sun FOX): 8.7, 18.63M.
Week 9 NFL predictions
NBC’s Sunday Night Football was supposed to avoid the World Series entirely this year, as the rare Friday start for the Fall Classic meant Sunday was an off-day last weekend. A Monday rainout and MLB’s unusual decision to push the entire series back by a day means that SNF could face the toughest possible baseball competition this weekend, a World Series Game 7.
After back-to-back defeats in 2016 and 2017, SNF resumed its domination of the World Series the following year and has yet to let up. Should the Phillies win on Saturday and force a Game 7, expect that streak to end. As dominant as the NFL has become, there is simply no way that an NFL regular season game can outdraw a World Series Game 7 head-to-head. With that said, Titans-Chiefs would hold up reasonably well if the competition materializes.
Should the Astros wrap things up Saturday, expect a pretty typical Sunday night number.
NFL Sunday Night Football: Titans-Chiefs (8:20p Sun NBC). Prediction: 8.0, 15.22M (if WS Game 7), 9.8, 18.98M (if no WS Game 7).
One year after their stirring matchup in the Divisional Round, neither the Rams nor the Buccaneers are at the .500 mark. That is not necessarily going to dissuade anyone from watching Tom Brady — particularly if their motivation is schadenfreude — but it stands to reason the NFL expected more from this matchup when it was scheduled as the solo game of the national window (and one of just two late afternoon games total). Ratings and viewership for the national window have increased in every week this season (not counting Week 1, when CBS and FOX cannibalize each other), but that streak seems likely to end. Last year’s comparable window pit the Packers and Chiefs and averaged a 12.6 rating and more than 24 million viewers.
NFL national window: Rams-Buccaneers (4:25p Sun CBS). Prediction: 11.5, 22.59M.
How high will the ratings go for the big SEC games?
The SEC takes center stage this college football weekend as surprise #1 Tennessee takes on #3 Georgia. The Vols have already played in the season’s most-watched game, their upset of Alabama three weeks ago that averaged 11.56 million on CBS. Assuming this week’s game is close (Georgia is favored by eight), it is reasonable to expect a new season-high. While Georgia is not as big a draw as Alabama, a top-five matchup rarely lets down in the ratings.
CFB: #1 Tennessee-#3 Georgia (3:30p Sat CBS). Prediction: 6.4, 11.79M.
LSU went from national champions to irrelevance right back to the top ten. The Tigers host Alabama this week in a matchup that could knock the Tide out of a realistic shot at the playoffs. After airing on CBS for 15 straight seasons, this is the second year in a row that the rivalry airs on ESPN instead. Last year’s game scored a 2.8 rating and more than 5 million viewers, still the largest regular season college football audience on cable since 2019. This year’s game figures to do better given both teams are in the top ten, but competition from the World Series could put a damper on the numbers.
CFB: #6 Alabama-#10 LSU (7p Sat ESPN). Prediction: 3.2, 5.36M.
Will NASCAR and MLS end their seasons strong?
After a solid run during the summer, NASCAR ratings hit a wall with the start of football season. Dating back to Darlington, only one race has posted an increase over last year (Las Vegas), and that was largely due to a network switch from cable to broadcast. It seems doubtful that anything will change for Sunday’s season finale from Phoenix. Last year’s race averaged north of 3.2 million viewers. Anything at or under the three million mark would be the lowest for the season finale in at least two decades.
NASCAR Cup Series finale: Phoenix (3p Sun NBC). Prediction: 3.03M.
The Major League Soccer season concludes with Saturday’s MLS Cup on FOX and UniMas. College football competition should be a serious drag on the numbers. Last year’s final largely avoided college football, airing on the Saturday that features only the Army-Navy Game. Tennessee-Georgia alone should sink the numbers by double-digits (last year’s game averaged 1.14 million on ABC and 1.53 million overall, pending revision). The real question is whether the English-language audience on FOX will surpass last weekend’s primetime NWSL audience on CBS (915K).
MLS Cup: Philadelphia-LAFC (4p Sat FOX, UniMas). Prediction: 975K on FOX, 1.29M overall.
Previous predictions
— MLB Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox-Yankees. Prediction: 2.24M viewers; result: 2.20M.
— NFL Sunday Night Football: 49ers-Broncos. Prediction: 9.4, 17.6M; result: 9.6, 17.8M.
— NFL: mostly Packers-Buccaneers. Prediction: 13.6, 25.2M; result: 13.4, 26.4M.
— NFL Monday Night Football: Cowboys-Giants. Prediction: 10.4, 18.32M; result: 10.7, 19.34M.
— CFB: Wisconsin-Ohio State. Prediction: 2.9, 5.43M; result: 2.4, 4.59M.
— NASCAR Cup Series: Texas. Prediction: 1.2, 1.98M; result: 1.1, 1.91M.
