Ratings predictions for a packed sports weekend, led by the FIFA World Cup Final. With a strong matchup, can the winter World Cup finish a strong run on a historic note? Plus, predictions for Week 15 of the NFL, the start of the bowl season and the NCAA volleyball final.
How big a finish for a stronger-than-expected World Cup?
It is safe to say that the winter World Cup was a ratings success, even with out-of-home viewing providing a significant caveat. Among the multiple milestones: the most-watched quarterfinals and semifinals ever on English-language television; the most-watched U.S. group stage ever on English-language television; and the most-watched group stage match ever on Spanish-language television. All this for a World Cup taking place months later than usual, the kind of scheduling change that would usually be ratings drag.
It is also a World Cup dogged by scrutiny of its host and, at least partially, overshadowed by the shocking death of one of soccer’s most prominent journalists Grant Wahl. One need only go back to earlier this year to find an international sporting event that generated more controversy than ratings points — the record-low Beijing Winter Olympics on NBC. Yet the World Cup has not just avoided the same fate as those Beijing Olympics, it has gone in the opposite direction. Why?
Part of it can surely be attributed to the on-field product, which has included stirring extra-time thrillers decided on penalty kicks. A large part of it can be attributed to the previously-mentioned inclusion of out-of-home viewing, which looks like a bigger and bigger factor in sports TV ratings by the day. Some of it can be credited to the time of year, a factor once expected to be a ratings drag; this year’s tournament is taking place during a higher rated time of year (November and December) than the usual dead of summer. Plus, do not discount the benefit of most games airing on broadcast television; even after dramatically ramping up its World Cup coverage in 2010 and 2014, ESPN still kept the overwhelming majority of matches on cable.
Whatever the reasons, this World Cup has been everything Fox and Telemundo could have reasonably asked for (at least on the field) — and it ends with as good a final matchup as the networks could have hoped: Argentina and its all-time great Lionel Messi against rising star Kylian Mbappé and defending champion France in a clash of traditional powers. While morning starts are no network’s favorite, midmorning on a Sunday is far from the worst timeslot. It also avoids the problem of NFL competition, the biggest concern when the schedule was first announced. In fact, with the NFL serving as the lead-out show on FOX, the final may attract a few extra eyeballs from viewers tuning for FOX NFL Sunday.
All of the above factors set up for a strong audience: the matchup, the inclusion of out-of-home, the NFL adjacent schedule, and the higher rated time of year. Viewership should vault past France-Croatia in a similar morning timeslot four years ago (12.5M on FOX, 5.3M on Telemundo, for a combined match window of 17.8M). Is 2014 in play? That year, Germany-Argentina drew 17.5 million on ABC and 9.2 million on Univision for a combined 26.7 million — on par with the 2015 United States-Japan Women’s World Cup final as the largest soccer audience ever on U.S. television.
For the biggest matchups in this World Cup — United States-England on Black Friday and the U.S. round of 16 loss to the Netherlands — viewership has come in a bit off of 2014 levels.
FIFA World Cup Final: Argentina-France (10a Sun FOX, Telemundo, Peacock). Prediction: 14.5M on FOX, 8.2M on Telemundo, 22.7M combined (match window).
Predictions for Week 15 of the NFL season
The NFL offers a rare Saturday tripleheader this week, its first on a single network since 2019. The first two games are not much to write home about, at least on paper, but the nightcap pits a pair of playoff contenders as Miami faces Buffalo in a potential snow bowl. As these games are on NFL Network, viewership will be on the low side (by NFL standards). Nonetheless, expect these games to average out to a solid increase over last year’s solo Patriots-Colts game (~7.3M).
NFL: Colts-Vikings, Ravens-Browns and Dolphins-Bills (1, 4:30 and 8:15p Sat NFLN). Predictions: 5.3, 8.2 and 11.1M.
It has not been quite as bad as watching Aaron Rodgers and the Packers or LeBron James and the Lakers, but Tom Brady and the Buccaneers have not exactly been as advertised this season. With a 6-7 record, the only thing keeping Tampa Bay in any relevant conversation is the wretched state of the NFC South, the division they currently lead. The Buccaneers face the defending AFC champion Bengals in a game laden with playoff implications Sunday – and the first ever matchup of Brady and Joe Burrow.
So long as the Buccaneers keep things closer than they did last week – when they got smoked by the 49ers – expect a solid rating bump. Then again, considering how well last week’s window performed even with the rout, ratings could score a solid bump regardless. On the same weekend last year, FOX scored north of 22 million for Packers-Ravens.
NFL: mostly Bengals-Buccaneers (4:25p Sun CBS). Prediction: 23.1M.
Additional predictions
CFB Las Vegas Bowl: Florida-Oregon State (2:30p Sat ESPN). Thanks to the NFL flexing the Raiders out of Sunday Night Football, the Las Vegas Bowl was forced out of its primetime slot on ABC to a midday window on ESPN. Expect viewership to trail last year’s Las Vegas Bowl – which topped 3.6 million in a late-night, midweek window after Christmas –– but comfortably top last year’s comparable New Mexico Bowl (~1.5M). Prediction: 2.25M.
CFB New Mexico Bowl: SMU-BYU (7:30p Sat ABC). With the Las Vegas Bowl pushed back, the New Mexico Bowl will fill the primetime slot on ABC Saturday, giving the game more exposure than usual. Viewership should cruise past last year, though the comparable ABC game (LA Bowl: ~2.9M) will be a harder task. Prediction: 2.50M.
NCAA volleyball tournament national championship: Louisville-Texas (8p Sat ESPN2). NCAA volleyball is getting increasing attention for its solid viewership, and though Thursday’s national semifinal audience declined from last year, it was the second-largest on record. Expect similar results for Saturday’s national championship — down from last year’s record (~1.2M), but still on the high side. Prediction: 1.08M.
Previous predictions
— FIFA World Cup: USMNT-Netherlands. Prediction: 15.7M (FOX), 4.2M (TEL/PEA); result: 15.28M (FOX), 3.6M (TEL/PEA)
— Big 12 Championship: Kansas State-TCU. Prediction: 9.04M; result: 9.41M.
— SEC Championship: Georgia-LSU. Prediction: 12.12M; result: 10.89M.
— Big Ten Championship: Michigan-Purdue. Prediction: 8.76M; result: 10.70M.
— NFL: Colts-Cowboys. Prediction: 18.8M; result: 18.1M.
— NFL: mostly Chiefs-Bengals. Prediction: 22.5M; result: 23.4M.
— NFL: mostly Titans-Eagles or Dolphins-49ers. Prediction: 17.5M; result: 19.2M.
