Ratings predictions for a big weekend in soccer, including the first USWNT match of the Women’s World Cup and Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami debut. Plus: how will the British Open fare this weekend, and more.
Can viewers stay awake for this year’s Women’s World Cup?
Seven months ago, the Qatar World Cup defied predictions of ratings doom despite taking place months later than usual in the heart of football season. Can the Women’s World Cup have the same good fortune? There is good reason to be skeptical, specifically the middle-of-the-night and early morning timeslots that dominate the schedule.
Only six matches in this year’s World Cup are set for primetime (including at least two involving the USWNT). All others are set to kick-off between 12:30 and 7:00 AM ET. Even the World Cup final on August 20 is set for a bright and early 6 AM ET start. In Qatar, by contrast, a number of matches aired in the afternoon hours on the East Coast and the final had a breakfast-time 10 AM ET start — not necessarily ideal, but far easier to overcome.
Perhaps those six primetime matches can make up for the slew of overnight windows. Such a prospect seems doubtful. No matter what happens on the field, it is hard to imagine that this night owl World Cup will manage to keep pace with four years ago — much less eight, when the tournament took place in North America.
Having said that, those primetime matches should at least serve as a consolation prize in an otherwise down year — especially as most figure to feature the USWNT.
The Americans begin their run to a third-straight title against Vietnam Friday night on FOX. Four years ago, the first U.S. match (a rout of Thailand) averaged 2.63 million in a mid-afternoon weekday timeslot. Eight years ago, their primetime opener against Australia averaged an audience of 3.31 million — a record for a group play match at the time — but that was on FS1. Friday marks the first time the U.S. has opened a World Cup on primetime network television. That alone should be enough to set a viewership milestone.
FIFA Women’s World Cup: United States – Vietnam (9p Fri FOX, Telemundo). Prediction: 4.22M on FOX, 656K on Telemundo.
Take chances, make mistakes and get Messi
The other big soccer story this week is Lionel Messi’s debut with Inter Miami of Major League Soccer. English-language coverage of Messi’s debut is exclusive to Apple TV+, but because it is taking place in the MLS vs. Liga MX Leagues Cup, Univision has a Spanish-language feed. As a result, while there will be no English-language Nielsen ratings reported, the match figures to rank among the most-watched sportscasts of the week. The combination of a global star in Messi and America’s most-watched club soccer league in Liga MX should produce a healthy viewership number even without an Apple TV contribution.
Sixteen years ago when David Beckham made his MLS debut, ESPN’s coverage averaged 1.5 million viewers. Given soccer viewership is typically stronger on Spanish-language television and that Messi is arguably bigger now than Beckham was then, a substantially stronger audience seems likely.
MLS vs. Liga MX Leagues Cup: Cruz Azul – Inter Miami (8p Fri Univision). Prediction: 3.04M.
Expect a quiet weekend for the British Open
There are some familiar names on the leaderboard entering the final major weekend of the year, with Jordan Spieth tied for seventh and Rory McIlroy tied for 11th. Nonetheless, it is a relative unknown atop the leaderboard with a five-shot lead. It is some consolation that said unknown — Brian Harman — is an American (and ranked #26 in the world). Yet it seems unlikely that the British Open will draw particularly well if he maintains that lead.
Realistically, British Open has never been a particularly strong draw owing to its early morning start times, and in the post-Tiger Woods era it will take an unusual event for the numbers to make more than a blip. Last year’s third and final rounds were the most-watched since 2018 with 3.31 and 4.55 million viewers respectively. Expect lower numbers this time around, especially as the tournament faces unusual early morning competition from the Women’s World Cup.
British Open, third and final rounds (7 am Sat & Sun NBC). Prediction: 2.94 and 3.67M.
Will PLL All-Stars break the mold?
The fourth All-Star Game in less than two weeks takes place Saturday night, this time in the Premier Lacrosse League. It is no secret that All-Star games simply do not draw the way they used to (the ice they skate is getting pretty thin), but they still have showcase value for smaller leagues that do not get much viewership otherwise. There is no chance that Saturday’s game will be the most-watched of the season (ABC’s season opener averaged 543,000), but it should deliver a far bigger audience than what the PLL has drawn on ESPN2 the past two weeks: 66,000 and 74,000 viewers.
Premier Lacrosse League All-Star Game (8p Sat ESPN). Prediction: 218K.
Previous predictions
— NBA Finals: Heat-Nuggets Game 5. Prediction: 13.23M; result: 13.08M.
— Stanley Cup Final: Golden Knights-Panthers Game 4. Prediction: 2.64M; result: 2.56M.
— The Belmont Stakes, race segment. Prediction: 3.51M; result: 3.52M.
— French Open men’s final, Djokovic-Ruud. Prediction: 1.35M; result: 1.56M.
— MLB: mostly Red Sox-Yankees. Prediction: 2.93M; result: 2.56M.
