A media-focused preview of the NFL’s annual Thanksgiving tripleheader: How to watch, ratings predictions and more.
How to watch the NFL on Thanksgiving
Date: Thursday, November 23
Times: 12:30 (Packers-Lions), 4:30 (Commanders-Cowboys) and 8:20 PM ET (49ers-Seahawks)
Networks: FOX (Packers-Lions), CBS (Commanders-Cowboys) and NBC (49ers-Seahawks)
Streaming options: Paramount+ (CBS only), Peacock (NBC only), Fubo, DIRECTV STREAM, YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV. (If you purchase a subscription, this site may receive a commission.)
The full NFL schedule is available here.
Ratings predictions
Few sporting events have benefited more from the addition of Nielsen out-of-home viewing than the NFL’s Thanksgiving Day games. Last season, per Sports TV Ratings, out-of-home accounted for nearly 40 percent of the audience for Giants-Cowboys, 30 percent for Bills-Lions and 27 percent for Patriots-Vikings. Considering that out-of-home is a relatively recent addition — Nielsen first began including those numbers in its final nationals in 2020 — historical comparisons can be misleading. Giants-Cowboys last year was the most-watched Thanksgiving (and NFL regular season) game on record with over 42 million viewers. Yet is there any doubt that the “Leon Lett game” in 1993 (Dolphins-Cowboys: 38.41M) would have surpassed that mark had out-of-home been included back then? Even Bills-Cowboys in 2019 (32.64M) would likely come out ahead in an apples-to-apples comparison.
As it is, the out-of-home caveat is simply a fact of life in the current Nielsen era, and one the networks certainly do not mind. Thanksgiving is tailor-made for out-of-home, as it is the holiday with the greatest co-viewing, and it figures to produce a steady stream of record audiences in the years to come. If those records are a product of lopsided, apples-to-oranges comparisons, few will pay that any mind. In the current TV era, that is almost understandable; when the World Series is averaging nine million viewers, it seems ridiculous to throw any cold water on the NFL getting 40-plus.
As for this year’s matchups, the Thanksgiving Day slate offers an unusual set of circumstances. For the first time possibly ever, the Detroit Lions have the best record of any of the participating teams. There was once a time when one would assume all of the other teams must be having abjectly terrible seasons. Instead, the opposite — four of six teams are playoff contenders, and even still Detroit is the best of them at 8-2. The NFL bet on the Lions from the start of the season by placing them in the season-opening Kickoff Game and was rewarded with 27.5 million viewers (across Nielsen and Adobe Analytics) — the largest audience of the season until this past Monday night. For Thanksgiving games, season-highs are pretty much a given. The bar for success is record-highs, and the largest audience on record for a Lions Thanksgiving game is last year’s 31.8 million. Expect a new mark this year.
Washington, one of two sub-.500 teams in Thursday’s line-up, is on the schedule for a very specific strategic reason. Thanksgiving games draw big numbers no matter the participating teams, so the NFL knows not to waste its best matchups if even mediocre ones will top the 30 million mark. Commanders-Cowboys is unlikely to match last year’s 42.1 million for Giants-Cowboys, a game that ended up being far more meaningful than most expected at the start of the season. Nonetheless, a game that would not typically occupy a marquee spot on the schedule will probably end up somewhere in the high 30 million range and end up as the most-watched of the season.
Finally, the cranberry sauce of the Thanksgiving Day slate — the primetime game. Outside of 2015, when Bears-Packers came out ahead of Eagles-Lions, the primetime game has always been the least-watched of the Thanksgiving tripleheader. A relatively new addition to the schedule (the first one was in 2006), it aired on NFL Network in its early years and thus never established much of a holiday tradition outside of the most ardent football fans. Last year’s audience of 25 million was the second-best ever in the window, but paled in comparison to the 30 and 40 million totals for the afternoon games. Of course one will hear no complaints from NBC, as the game is still typically one of its most-watched all season. This year’s 49ers-Seahawks matchup is particularly relevant with the NFC West lead on the line, and as such should have a good chance of surpassing last year’s number.
NFL Thanksgiving Day games: Packers-Lions (12:30p FOX), Commanders-Cowboys (4p CBS) and 49ers-Seahawks (8:20p NBC). Predictions: 35.3, 39.4 and 24.9 million viewers.
Most-watched NFL Thanksgiving games, 1991-present
#1: 2022 Giants-Cowboys, 42.06 million viewers (FOX)
#2: 2021 Raiders-Cowboys, 40.80 million viewers (CBS)
#3: 1993 Dolphins-Cowboys, 38.41 million viewers (NBC)
#4: 1995 Chiefs-Cowboys, 35.72 million viewers (NBC)
#5: 2016 Washington-Dallas, 35.11 million viewers (FOX)
See the full top ten here. The Cowboys have played in the top 13 — and 18 of the top 19 — Thanksgiving Day games dating back to 1991. The most-watched Lions game on Thanksgiving, last year’s matchup with the Bills on CBS, ranks 14th (31.78M).
