Ratings predictions the biggest game of the college football season, and one of the biggest games in the history of the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry. How high will viewership go, and will 2006 be in play?
How to watch Ohio State-Michigan on FOX
Date: Saturday, November 25
Times: Noon ET
Networks: FOX
Streaming options: Fubo, DIRECTV STREAM, YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV. (If you purchase a subscription, this site may receive a commission.)
The full college football schedule is available here.
Ratings prediction
There is no greater rivalry in college football than Michigan-Ohio State, at least if one judges by the television ratings. “The Game” is regularly the most-watched game of the season. Last year’s audience of 17.14 million viewers came to within 10,000 of the eventual national championship (Georgia 65, TCU 7: 17.22M). It has been nine years since the rivalry last averaged fewer than ten million viewers (2014: 8.23M), and at least 33 since it averaged as few as 6.27 million, or the audience of last year’s Iron Bowl.
It was not always the case that “The Game” held such a lofty position. There have been any number of occasions in which it was not the most-watched game of the day, much less the season. Multiple times in the 1990s and 2000s, it aired regionally on ABC. One could point toward the titanic 2006 game as the point at which it began to take on its current form — averaging a massive 21.04 million viewers — but that would not be quite true. Viewership fell to 6.89 million just two years later, still the lowest for the rivalry dating back to 1991.
The real turnaround was Jim Harbaugh’s arrival at Michigan in 2015. The first matchup of the Harbaugh era averaged 10.8 million viewers, at the time the rivals’ most-watched (outside of 2006) since 1997. Viewership has remained in that eight-figure range ever since, spiking every few years when both teams were in the top five. That includes last year, when their #2 vs. #3 matchup averaged 17.14 million on FOX. This year marks another #2 vs. #3 matchup, and the stakes seem higher than usual given the melodramatics surrounding the Michigan program.
There is something to be said for a ‘sports scandal.’ To be clear, not simply a scandal that occurs within a sports setting, but a scandal that could only exist inside of sports’ particular land of make-believe. There is a certain element of relief to be able to pretend that Harbaugh, Connor Stalions and an illegal sign-stealing operation are matters of serious import. Much like the Astros’ scandal in baseball, Sammy Sosa’s corked bat, “Deflategate” and more, the Michigan scandal provides all of the drama of a serious story — and in one case, all of the tears — without any real-life stakes whatsoever. It does raise the stakes considerably for Saturday, however, as the Wolverines face their biggest rival with a playoff berth on the line in the team’s first home game since Harbaugh’s suspension.
Given the storylines and the stakes, the question is not whether this will be the rivals’ most-watched matchup outside of 2006 (a virtual given), but whether that 2006 number could be in play. The answer to that hypothetical is almost certainly no, but with out-of-home viewing juicing the numbers, a close game could have a real shot.
As mentioned previously, last year’s game averaged 17.14 million viewers, the highest for the rivalry outside of 2006.
CFB: #3 Ohio State-#2 Michigan (Noon Sat FOX). Prediction: 20.02M.
Most-watched Ohio State-Michigan games dating back to 1991
2006: #2 Michigan 39, #1 Ohio State 42: 21.04M, ABC
2022: #3 Michigan 45, #2 Ohio State 23: 17.14M, FOX
2016: #3 Michigan 27, #2 Ohio State 30: 16.84M, ABC
2021: #2 Ohio State 27, #5 Michigan 42: 16.47M, FOX
1995: #18 Michigan 31, #2 Ohio State 23: 14.27M, ABC (regional window)
