Super Bowl ratings prediction: All the factors that will fuel a ‘record’ audience

With Sunday’s Super Bowl 58 expected to set a new viewership record, the following article digs into reasons why, and argues that the distinction should be accompanied by an asterisk. For reference, see this list of all-time Super Bowl viewership.

Not quite a perfect ending, but expect a big finish for the NFL

Through halftime of the NFC Championship, it looked as if the most gilded of sports leagues would finish its season with a gift from the football gods: a Chiefs vs. Lions Super Bowl. It was to have been the ultimate David vs. Goliath matchup, featuring a long-suffering Detroit fanbase on par with those of the champion Cubs, Red Sox and Cleveland Cavaliers of recent years. It would have brought the season full circle, marking the first time that the Kickoff Game matchup ended up as a Super Bowl preview. Further, it would have marked yet another example of the NFL’s vaunted parity, as Detroit would have gone from missing the playoffs one year to the Super Bowl the next.

Alas, contrary to conspiracy theories and tongue-in-cheek advertising campaigns, the NFL does not script its outcomes. San Francisco overcame Detroit’s halftime lead, setting up a Super Bowl 54 sequel against Kansas City. The four-year gap is the shortest for a repeat Super Bowl matchup since the Patriots and Giants in 2008 and 2012, but it would be a stretch to call this a rematch. Only 11 players on the current 49ers were on the Super Bowl 54 squad, and while that list that includes some high-profile players like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, it does not include the highest-profile position of quarterback. Even if one wanted to highlight the rematch narrative, that 2020 matchup was close but not particularly memorable, forgotten rather quickly due to events thereafter.

This matchup will thus have to stand on its own, and if underwhelming compared to the alternative, Chiefs-49ers is still serviceable.

The matchup

Kansas City has become one of the NFL’s best teams and biggest draws in the Patrick Mahomes era, filling the dynastic vacancy left by the New England Patriots. This particular iteration has gained pop cultural relevance beyond the football field, a factor that has been repeatedly cited as fueling the NFL’s ratings success this season. Whether that claim is actually true — the evidence is mixed at best — it has certainly not hurt the Chiefs appeal.

The 49ers bring far less to the table, but they are far from a ratings drag. Brock Purdy and company played in both the most-watched conference title game in 12 years and the most-watched Saturday playoff game on record, and while both marks can be attributed largely to their opponents — to say nothing of out-of-home viewing — San Francisco is a decent consolation prize for the loss of Detroit. Considering some of the other championship matchups over the past year — Rangers vs. Diamondbacks, Nuggets vs. Heat, UConn vs. San Diego State — the NFL could have done far worse.

Even if the NFL had done far worse — Buccaneers vs. Texans, for example — the league would still be on track for a record, or near-record, audience. Given the nature of the Super Bowl, a national holiday on which tens of millions watch their first and only football game of the year, the matchup simply does not matter like it does in other sports. More importantly, it is also the case that Nielsen records are highly misleading in the out-of-home era. This Super Bowl will only be the fourth in which out-of-home viewing is included in the official viewership figures, and the eighth in which that data is measured at all.

The out-of-home effect

For an event like the Super Bowl, out-of-home viewing is particularly potent — consisting of viewership in restaurants, bars and other public spaces. It also consists of guest viewing in others’ homes, such as Super Bowl viewing parties, but that was already tracked by Nielsen. Excluding that guest viewing, out-of-home is likely to contribute at least 12-13 million additional viewers who would not have been counted in prior years, making all the difference in historical comparisons to years when the Nielsen audience solely consisted of in-home viewing.

Even comparisons to the early out-of-home era — 2017-20 — are skewed, as the data was tracked separately and excluded from official Nielsen records until mid-2020. Hence the official record for a Super Bowl was set by Chiefs-Eagles last year (115.1M), but the Super Bowl with the largest Nielsen-measured audience was Patriots-Falcons in 2017, when out-of-home was tracked but not officially included (124.6M). (As argued in this article, it is likely that the true record for a Super Bowl was set by Patriots-Seahawks in 2015, which averaged 114.4 million in the era before out-of-home viewing was measured at all.)

All of which is to say that Chiefs-49ers will likely break last year’s official record, but it will be a record-in-name-only. That ultimately does not matter, as record highs are more important in press releases than in the dealings between advertisers and the networks, but it is something to keep in mind when reading exultant headlines on Monday and Tuesday. More than likely, it will be only the most-watched Super Bowl in seven years — still an impressive distinction, if far less so.

The simulcasts

Out-of-home viewing is the biggest caveat to keep in mind, but not the only one. Simulcast coverage is likely to be a much more significant factor in this year’s viewership than in the past. Nickelodeon is carrying a “Slimetime” alternate presentation, marking the first time since Super Bowl 1 that the game will air on two English-language channels. In addition, Spanish-language coverage is airing on Univision, a major over-the-air network. The only other time the Super Bowl aired on a Spanish-language broadcast network, it averaged 1.9 million on Telemundo two years ago — easily the largest-ever audience for a Spanish-language version of the game. By comparison, none of the Super Bowl broadcasts on cable channels Fox Deportes, ESPN Deportes or NBC’s Universo even cracked the million-viewer mark.

These simulcasts are likely to be additive, rather than pulling viewers away from CBS, given the narrow niches they are targeting — young and Spanish-speaking audiences who may not have otherwise tuned in. (It is true that families with children and Spanish-language households who previously watched the traditional broadcast may switch to the simulcasts, but presumably not enough to cancel out the new viewership brought in.)

The most recent Nickelodeon “Slimecast” (Raiders-Chiefs on Christmas) averaged just 903,000 viewers, compared to over 28 million for the main broadcast on CBS. That figure may not seem impressive on its own, but it is nearly an extra million viewers. Considering the much larger audience of the Super Bowl, seven figures seems a virtual certainty. Between the Nickelodeon and Univision broadcasts, it is entirely possible that the simulcasts will contribute an additional 3-4 million viewers, compared to 882,000 last year. Even if the CBS audience were to decline — unlikely but possible — the simulcasts would be enough to vault this year’s game into ‘record’ territory.

Prediction

Expect the Super Bowl to deliver the largest single-network audience on record, with the CBS broadcast topping the current mark of 114.4 million for Patriots-Seahawks on NBC alone in 2015 (before the era of out-of-home viewing). The Nickelodeon and Univision simulcasts should add about three million to that total, helping this year’s game comfortably surpass the official Nielsen record of 115.1 million set last year.

Super Bowl 58: 49ers-Chiefs (6:30p Sun CBS, Nickelodeon, Univision). Prediction: 115.7 million on CBS, 1.2 million on Nickelodeon, 2.1 million on Univision, for a total of 119 million.