With the NFL Schedule Release just days away, Sports Media Watch presents the NFL Television Mock Draft. Networks have been evaluating the draft stock of every game, and NBC is on the clock with the first pick.
This “mock draft” is purely speculative and for entertainment purposes only, and does not accurately represent how the NFL schedule is built. In reality, the networks submit their requests for certain games and teams to the league, and the league uses computer models to narrow down thousands of potential schedules, eliminating undesirable options based on factors like bye weeks, travel, international games. The final schedule is delivered to TV partners and teams in the weeks before the official release on May 14.
For this hypothetical model, NBC gets the first pick, as it will air Super Bowl LX in February. The other Sunday broadcasters (Fox and CBS) pick next, who will use most of their top games in the 4:25 window, the highest-rated NFL timeslot. ESPN and Amazon Prime Video pick their Monday and Thursday night games last in the first two rounds. Other platforms expected to air games include two games on Netflix, a Peacock exclusive, an ESPN+ exclusive, international games on NFL Network, and whatever else the league decides to carve out and sell to a digital platform.
The top draft picks below, which are heavy on marquee teams, represent the most important games to the business operations of the league’s core partners. While the season’s 272 games will all find a TV home, this list represents the most-anticipated, high-profile matchups of the upcoming season.
Round 1
- NBC — Chiefs at Cowboys: This powerhouse intraconference matchup goes #1 overall. While the Mahomes-haters may roll their eyes, there’s no denying that the drawing power of the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys are unmatched by the rest of the league. NBC tends to place one of its strongest game in Week 4, the final day of the MLB season (no primetime games), and before the start of the NBA and NHL seasons.
- FOX — Commanders at Eagles: Fox typically airs at least one leg of every NFC divisional rivalry, and this NFC Championship rematch will be a good one. Fox’s season-high late window last year was in Week 3, when it aired Ravens-Cowboys to 27.3 million viewers. Fox will want to post an increase over this number, so it will place an equally strong game like Commanders-Eagles in Week 3 this year.
- CBS — Chiefs at Bills: CBS has aired this rivalry matchup between AFC heavyweights annually for the last three seasons, and it continues to draw well. Expect the latest thrilling chapter in the Mahomes-Allen story to air on chilly late afternoon in November.
- ESPN — Eagles at Chiefs: ESPN aired Eagles-Chiefs the season after their first Super Bowl meeting in 2023. While Fox had the Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl rematch last year, the Kelce factor makes this one a strong candidate for Monday night. Expect this to air on ESPN and ABC as well.
- Amazon — Lions at Packers: While there’s probably more Cowboys and Chiefs games Amazon would desire, Amazon’s typically boxed out of that tier of inventory for Thursday nights. This divisional rivalry meeting between two of last year’s playoff teams could be a strong Week 2 matchup to open the season.
Round 2
- NBC — Cowboys at Eagles: This rivalry matchup is the most-played Sunday Night Football pairing since NBC took over in 2006. Even in years when the teams are in the basement of the NFC standings, the history of the series still draws well. This game is not likely to be the season opener; NBC could get a strong rating for Philadelphia in that window against a lesser opponent like Denver.
- FOX — Commanders at Chiefs: FOX doesn’t have many opportunities to air the Chiefs, but this matchup with the NFC runners-up should be a strong anchor for a 4:25 window.
- CBS — Eagles at Bills: Like Commanders-Chiefs, appearances by the Eagles on CBS is are rare. This meeting with the Bills is a great opportunity for a big rating.
- ESPN — Ravens at Bills: Two elite AFC quarterbacks meet up in a November clash on Monday night.
- Amazon — Eagles at Commanders: Maybe a bit surprising that this NFC Championship rematch fell to the second round, but if Amazon’s able to score it, its a great pickup for the schedule.
Round 3
- NBC — Lions at Bengals: Intraconference games seem to fit better on NBC. This one meeting between two contenders is the perfect way to cap off a Sunday night in September.
- FOX — Eagles at Packers: Fox usually gets a strong NFC game in Week 9, the first day after the end of Daylight Savings Time. The early sunset pairs perfectly with scenes of Midwestern fall in Wisconsin.
- CBS — Lions at Chiefs: This game could actually be a candidate for one the Chiefs’ few 1:00 games, leading off CBS’s singleheader window before a strong Fox late game.
- ESPN — Rams at Eagles: In the previous rights deal, teams were limited to 5 primetime games each season, including up to 3 on Sunday night. If NBC took 3 of a team’s games, that usually just left one for Thursday night and one for Monday night. In recent years, however, teams with 3 Sunday night games have made multiple appearances on Monday Night Football.
- Amazon — Chargers at Broncos: This matchup of AFC playoff teams is a great fit for Amazon’s Black Friday game. Prime Video is also expected to air an NBA game following the NFL; a game involving the Nuggets and Lakers or Clippers could provide cross-promotional opportunities in the home markets.
- Netflix — Ravens at Chiefs: Netflix gets their first pick in the third round because the streamer doesn’t need top-tier inventory to draw a mass audience on Christmas. The Chiefs requested that the NFL make them a “fixture” of the Christmas Day schedule, and while league officials have tempered expectations on that front, it seems as good an idea as any to feature the three-time defending AFC champions on the holiday.
Round 4
- NBC — Ravens at Packers: If Congress does indeed revisit the 1961 Sports Broadcasting Act, they should include a provision that the Packers are legally required to play a home game on the Sunday night right before Christmas, and that the league should ensure that it’s snowing at Lambeau Field.
- FOX — Packers at Cowboys: So much of the NFL’s strength is its ability to draw audiences regardless of the quality of play. These two brand names alone are enough to pull 20 million viewers on a late Sunday afternoon in October.
- CBS — Ravens at Bengals: As much as CBS would prefer to air the Chiefs and Bills every week, there are other exciting matchups in the AFC. This divisional rivalry pits two star quarterbacks in an offense-heavy game.
- ESPN — Eagles at Buccaneers: Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield is no stranger to big-time games on ESPN, and hosting the Super Bowl Champs would be a great showcase. The South Florida weather makes this a game that could be played in December.
- Amazon — Bills at Steelers: The attractiveness of this rivalry game largely depends on whether or not QB Aaron Rodgers decides to play for the Steelers. If Pittsburgh, sans Rodgers, is 3-8 by the time this one rolls around, Amazon could again use their flex scheduling option to get out of it.
- Netflix — Buccaneers at Lions: Netflix can add a little NFC flavor to their holiday cooking with this big-time contest.
Round 5
- NBC — Bengals at Steelers: Round Five leans heavily on divisional rivalries, and this one is a good fit for primetime. Expect this matchup in September or early October, before the strong AFC North cannibalizes the division’s records.
- FOX — Rams at 49ers: The NFC West’s top brands remain big draws. FOX can juice the number here by putting it in a split-national window with a Giants game.
- CBS — Chargers at Chiefs: If it’s confirmed that the Chargers will host the Chiefs in the Brazil game in Week 1, its likely that CBS would get the other half of the series for a Sunday in October.
- ESPN — Texans at Jaguars: The first appearance of the AFC South in the draft. The Jaguars could become a decent draw if #2 pick Travis Hunter is as exciting to watch as he was at Colorado. This one is a good candidate for one of ESPN’s split-doubleheader Mondays. Put this game on ABC at 7:30 and then Chargers-Broncos at 8:30 on ESPN.
- Amazon — Giants at Cowboys: Although the Giants are currently the weakest draw of the mighty NFC East, the rivalry with the Cowboys should deliver for a Week 14 meeting on Amazon. Dallas often hosts Thursday Night Football the week after Thanksgiving.
Best Available
Outside of the most marquee matchups are dozens of high-quality games likely to get a big tune-in. Here’s just a sample of what’s left for the TV partners in the later rounds:
- Bengals at Bills: two perennial AFC contenders face off.
- Rams at Ravens: is this the year Baltimore finally breaks through in the AFC?
- Browns at Lions: the drama surrounding Cleveland’s quarterback room could bring intrigue here.
- Eagles at Vikings: the defending champions in a classic NFC battle.
- Seahawks at Commanders: two former SEC quarterbacks bring high-powered offense to this NFC showdown.
- Commanders at Dolphins: can Washington repeat their 12-win season from last year?
- Lions at Ravens: an exciting intraconference clash between two playoff contenders.
- Bills at Texans: matches up two of last year’s divisional champions.
- Vikings at Cowboys: Minnesota returns most of their core after a disappointing first-round exit last year.
- Rams at Titans: features #1 overall pick Cam Ward against a big-time opponent.
