With noon on Saturday quickly approaching, it appears increasingly likely the carriage dispute between Google and Disney will not be resolved in time for YouTube TV to carry ESPN’s Week 11 college football lineup, including big-time matchups like LSU-Alabama and BYU-Texas Tech. Fans with YouTube TV are at risk of missing out on college football for a second-straight week. But what’s been the impact so far on all parties involved?
For ESPN
ESPN has suffered in the public relations department over the last week. Scripted statements from its on-air talent encouraging fans to blame Google for the dispute have received poor reception on social media. Right or wrong, fans are not pleased with the impact of the dispute.
Beyond the reputational impact, analysis of Google’s previous contract with Disney estimates the company is losing roughly $5 million every day its networks are not distributed by YouTube TV, and this is day eight of the blackout. The Walt Disney Company is a massive corporation with a market cap of nearly $200 billion, but throwing away $5 million every day is still not nothing.
ESPN has also begun to feel the ratings impact of the blackout. Last week’s Monday Night Football game — which featured one of the NFL’s most reliable draws in the Dallas Cowboys — averaged just 16.2 million viewers, down from last year and the least watched NFL game to be simulcast on both ESPN and ABC this season.
As with last week, ESPN will make the College GameDay pregame show available for free, with no authentication required on the ESPN app or on Pat McAfee‘s X account. The show will be live from Lubbock, TX at 9 AM ET. The games themselves are another story. ESPN can’t risk violating agreements with other distributors by making all its content available for free.
For Google
So far, there are no apparent indications that Google has felt a significant impact from this dispute. There’s enough anecdotes to suggest a mild drop in subscribers is possible, but it is difficult to gauge impact as Google’s financials do not break out revenue and expenses from YouTube TV.
But for sports fans, who make up a disproportionate number of TV bundle customers, access to ESPN is essential in the long term. If YouTube TV doesn’t provide that, it becomes a non-starter, and enough alternatives exist that subscribers could drop the service entirely.
For the conferences
For the SEC, the biggest risk would seem to be angering fans with continued inability to watch their teams. Despite the dispute, the SEC will still likely maintain its viewership dominance — the ABC games still topped two of three CFB windows during the blackout last Saturday.
For the Big 12, which is enjoying its first Saturday intraconference ABC game all season and first “College GameDay” visit since 2023, the spotlight on the top ten matchup between BYU and Texas Tech would appear to be dimmed somewhat by the blackout from the nation’s fourth-largest TV provider.
The Big Ten seemingly stands to gain from ESPN’s blackout, potentially pushing fans to tune into the FOX and CBS games this weekend.
For fans
For college football fans who can’t miss another Saturday, other options exist to access their favorite teams. As discussed in a separate piece, switching to a different virtual TV provider like Fubo, Hulu+Live TV, DIRECTV’s streaming option, or Sling may be the easiest option. For fans just looking for ABC games (or CBS, CW, FOX, or NBC), a broadcast antenna is an inexpensive solution. Subscribing to ESPN directly for $30/month could plug the hole left by the YouTube TV dispute.
But fans can rightfully feel frustrated that the service they pay for has not delivered the content they expected. As the cable bundle continues to disintegrate, fans just looking to watch their favorite teams will always be left holding the bill.
