Ratings predictions for Memorial Day weekend sports, including a second-straight conference final Game 7 between the Celtics and Heat, the Indy 500, Monaco Grand Prix and more.
Why Game 7 is heaven for the NBA, regardless of the ratings
Just under a week ago, the NBA was one Celtics loss away from an ignominious distinction: two conference final sweeps for the first time in league history. Instead, Boston has become just the fourth team to force a Game 7 in any round after losing the first three games. The Celtics’ comeback, capped by Saturday’s improbable, buzzer-beating Game 6 win in Miami, has breathed life back into a postseason that seemed to have abruptly fizzled.
Much has been written about the ratings for a potential Heat-Nuggets Finals (a prospect that now seems far less certain than a week ago), but matchups are not as important as series length. Just avoiding a minimum-length conference finals is a win for the league, much less getting a Game 7 that should rank as the most-watched game of a strong postseason. (The current high is 9.84 million for Warriors-Kings Game 7 in round one.)
Conference final Game 7s are exceedingly rare. Monday will mark just the eighth in the 21 seasons since the NBA’s current rights deals began. (By comparison, there were just as many in the prior ten seasons.) Somehow, three of those eight Game 7s have pit Miami against Boston. The first of those in 2012 saw the LeBron-era “Heatles” prevail in a game that averaged 13.3 million (and would have likely drawn a lot more if it had not aired on a Saturday night). The second came last year and averaged 9.9 million on ESPN, topping only Pistons-Heat on TNT in 2005 (9.1M) as the least-watched conference final Game 7 in the past 30 years.
Given the storyline — Boston attempting the first 3-0 comeback in NBA history and joining their baseball brethren Red Sox in becoming the only non-NHL teams to pull off such an achievement — it seems likely this year’s game will fall somewhere in between 2012 and 2022. Any audience above last year would rank as the highest for a non-Finals NBA game in five years. Is there any reason to expect otherwise?
So far, this third Heat-Celtics conference final in four years has not been the strongest of draws. While all four games of the short-lived Nuggets-Lakers series averaged at least seven million viewers (including over eight million for Games 3 and 4), none of the first five of Heat-Celtics have gotten out of the six million range. The numbers have not been bad, but nor have they been something to brag about (Warner Bros. Discovery has not issued a single press release or tweet about viewership for the series). Each game has been within a narrow range of last year: down two percent, up one percent, down five percent, up three percent, down three percent. The pattern portends a slight decline for Game 7 (after an uptick for Game 6), but Game 7 viewership rarely has much in common with earlier games of a series.
Having said that, there is a scenario in which viewership declines. Last year’s Game 7 aired on a Sunday, a particularly potent night in the out-of-home era. Mondays simply do not compare, and though out-of-home viewing is stronger on holidays, Memorial Day is not marked by the kind of indoor family gatherings that are conducive to high TV viewing. It is entirely possible that ratings comfortably surpass last year’s 4.6 while viewership comes up short.
No matter the result, Monday’s game is an unexpected gift for the league and — depending on the finals matchup and length — possibly the last hurrah for one of its most successful postseasons of late.
NBA Playoffs: Heat-Celtics Eastern Conference Finals Game 7 (8:30p Mon TNT). Prediction: 10.75M.
Can a Dallas comeback jolt the NHL’s conference final numbers?
The Celtics are not the only team attempting a comeback from 0-3 down. The Dallas Stars have won two straight games to extend the NHL’s Western Conference Final to a Game 6 Monday night. While all four NBA and NHL conference finals started 3-0, it should be noted that the NBA’s viewership has been either mixed (Heat-Celtics) or up (Nuggets-Lakers). The same cannot be said of the NHL, which through Thursday had seen viewership decline for all-but-one game in the conference final round.
That trend will not abate on Monday, as viewership has little chance of matching last year’s lone conference final Game 6 (Lightning-Rangers: 2.8 million). Just as in the NBA, series length matters most of all — and a Dallas win on Monday would give the NHL more conference final games this year (11) than last (10). In a star-crossed postseason, that would be a rare break.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Golden Knights-Stars Western Conference Final Game 6 (8:00p Mon ESPN). Prediction: 1.90M.
Predictions for Sunday’s auto races
After a strong audience for Helio Castroneves’ win two years ago (5.63M), the Indy 500 fell back to earth last year with just 4.62 million viewers — the smallest audience ever for the race, not counting the COVID-delayed mid-August edition three years ago. There is no reason to expect the numbers to bounce back over the five million mark, though an increase is certainly possible.
Regardless of how the numbers fare historically, the Indy 500 should maintain its spot as the most-watched auto race of Memorial Day weekend. NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600 seems unlikely to go off as scheduled; even if it does, Indy took back the lead in the annual head-to-head several years ago. Formula 1, for all of the recent success (and hype), simply does not have a large enough audience to compete with the 500.
Indianapolis 500 (11:00a Sun NBC). Prediction: 4.48M.
For the first time since NBC held the rights, Formula 1’s Monaco Grand Prix will air live on broadcast television. Last year’s race delivered one of the largest F1 audiences on record with 1.61 million viewers on ESPN (excluding rain-delay coverage). The move from cable to broadcast should be enough to vault viewership even higher and potentially challenge the Miami Grand Prix earlier this year (1.96M) as the most-watched of the season.
F1 Monaco Grand Prix (8:00a Sun ABC). Prediction: 1.84M.
Additional predictions
The NCAA softball super regionals conclude with Alabama hosting Northwestern in a winner-take-all Game 3 Sunday afternoon. With not a lot of competition Sunday afternoon — the Indy 500 figures to be over by first pitch and NASCAR may get rained out — expect a solid viewership gain over Florida-Virginia Tech in an earlier timeslot a year ago (618K).
NCAA softball super regionals: Northwestern-Alabama Game 3 (4p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 755K.
Last week’s predictions
— NBA Playoffs: Nuggets-Lakers Game 3. Prediction: 8.25M; result: 8.38M
— NBA Playoffs: Heat-Celtics Game 2. Prediction: 6.01M; result: 6.13M
— NBA Playoffs: Celtics-Heat Game 3. Prediction: 6.74M; result: 6.49M
— WNBA: Mercury-Sparks. Prediction: 1.18M; result: 683K
— WNBA: Sky-Mercury. Prediction: 718K; result: 439K
— NHL West Final: Stars-Golden Knights Game 1. Prediction: 2.01M; result: 1.71M
— NHL East Final: Panthers-Hurricanes Game 2. Prediction: 1.69M 1.64M
— PGA Championship, third and final rounds. Predictions: 3.36M and 5.07M; result(s): 3.22 and 4.52M
— Preakness Stakes: race portion. Prediction: 6.02M; result: 5.02M
