First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NASCAR on FOX, UAW-Dodge 400. Prediction: 6.0. Final rating: 7.1. The 7.1 for the UAW-Dodge 400 is the highest rating for a non-Daytona 500 NASCAR race in two years, and the highest rating ever for a NASCAR race from Las Vegas. To put the 7.1 in perspective, the Indianapolis 500 has not drawn a rating that high since 1995.
- NHL on NBC, Flyers/Rangers. Prediction: 0.8. Final rating: 0.8. Excluding the Winter Classic, NBC’s five NHL telecasts have failed to draw even a 0.9 rating — a surprise, even for the ratings challenged NHL.
- NBA on ABC, Pistons/Suns (2/24). Prediction: 2.3 Final rating: 1.9. Shaq is neither the same player nor the same draw he used to be. The 1.9 for the Pistons blowout victory over Phoenix two weeks ago marks a 5% drop from the comparable Cavaliers/Heat game in ’07.
- NASCAR on FOX, Auto Club 500 (2/25). Prediction: 6.5. Final rating: 2.5. While final ratings for the rain-soaked Sunday portion of the Auto Club 500 are unavailable, FOX can be somewhat satisfied with the 2.5 the Monday afternoon part of the race drew. While a 2.5 is terrible for NASCAR, not many sports can draw a rating that high on an ordinary weekday afternoon.
Ratings for the NBA on ABC (Bulls/Cavaliers and Mavericks/Lakers) and AFL on ABC are unavailable.
This week’s predictions.
- College basketball on ESPN, UNC/Duke, 9 PM Saturday — The hype may border on overkill, but the ratings justify it. The first meeting between UNC and Duke this season drew a 1.8 national rating on ESPN, the second highest college basketball rating since November of ’06. Last year, the final meeting of the season between the rivals drew a 3.0 on network television. Prediction: 2.5.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs/Suns, 3:30 PM Sunday — The most heated rivalry in the NBA has cooled somewhat now that the Suns have entered self-destruct mode. Still, expect the rating for Spurs/Suns to easily surpass the numbers put up by the comparable game last year, Nuggets/Kings. Prediction: 2.4.
- NHL on NBC, Penguins/Capitals, 12:30 PM Sunday — If the two most marketable players in the NHL, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, cannot help the NHL on NBC finally draw a 1.0 rating, then the nobody can. Prediction: 1.2.
- NASCAR on FOX, Kobalt Tools 500, 1:30 PM Sunday — NASCAR ratings are on the rise this season, good news for a sport that looked as if its popularity was beginning to fade last fall. Sunday’s Kobalt Tools 500 is a lock to see a big increase in ratings; last year’s edition of the race drew a 5.2 opposite the NCAA Tournament. Prediction: 6.6.
