Ratings predictions for Week 1 of the NFL season and more, including Coco Gauff in the US Open women’s final and the home debut of Deion Sanders‘ Colorado Buffaloes. As a new NFL season gets fully underway, what is behind the league’s ratings rebound?
What is behind the NFL’s ratings rebound?
The NFL could not have asked for a better start to its season as Thursday’s Lions-Chiefs Kickoff Game delivered its second-largest opening night audience in nearly a decade. The league took a risk scheduling long-moribund Detroit for opening night and was rewarded both on the field and in the ratings – a testament to the good fortune it has experienced in the years since its now memory-holed ratings lull of the late 2010s. (It is worth a reminder that the same group of critics who trumpet every decline in ratings or sales as proof of a death spiral once said the same of the NFL.)
What has changed for the NFL since 2017? More than anything, the league’s depth. That the Lions are worthy of primetime after missing the playoffs last season is indicative. Even with the retirement of Tom Brady (and resulting irrelevance of the Buccaneers), the number of ready-for-primetime teams is unusually high — from the obvious contenders like the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles and Bengals to up-and-coming teams like the Dolphins, all boasting star quarterbacks. Even the Jets are widely expected to contend this season after the addition of Aaron Rodgers (and a much-hyped defense). It helps that the games have also been quite good over the past few years, a far cry from the run of primetime blowouts that marked the 2017 era.
The week one schedule is a showcase of said depth. FOX gets the league’s most storied rivalry as the Packers and Bears square off in a matchup of promising young quarterbacks. CBS gets the defending NFC champion Eagles against New England in a meeting of prominent teams. NBC gets another of the league’s best rivalries as Dallas takes on New York. Finally, ESPN and ABC have possibly the most tantalizing matchup of week one as the powerful Bills face the Jets in Rodgers’ New York debut. On paper, it looks to be a strong a week one as the league has had in years.
FOX and CBS will again cannibalize each other with competing doubleheaders, a circumstance neither network is likely in love with. Last year, FOX won the late game head-to-head with 18.55 million viewers to 16.62 million, but CBS has a good shot at the win this time around. Even though the Patriots have not been dominant for some time, their 20 years of excellence has left them as a timeless TV draw. Facing the defending NFC champions in a rematch of a recent Super Bowl, anything but a blowout should deliver in the ratings. Plus, even with some intrigue for the beginning of the Packers’ Jordan Love era, their matchup with Chicago pits teams that are not expected to contend.
— NFL national window: mostly Packers-Bears (4:25p Sun FOX). Prediction: 18.01M.
— NFL national window: mostly Eagles-Patriots (4:25p Sun CBS). Prediction: 18.25M.
One can throw out the records when the Giants play the Cowboys, but it is always preferable when one does not have to. That is always the case in week one of the season, and given New York’s surprise playoff run last season, it may be the case going forward. Expect strong numbers for the rivals’ first Week 1 meeting since 2019, but it will be tough sledding to match last year’s Sunday night opener — when the Cowboys faced Tom Brady and the Buccaneers (23.30M).
— NFL Sunday Night Football: Cowboys-Giants (8:20p Sun NBC). Prediction: 22.15M.
Monday Night Football has surged back to relevance in recent years, in large measure because the NFL finally decided to stop sandbagging ESPN with subpar schedules after John Skipper’s resignation. (A move no doubt made easier by ESPN’s willingness to simulcast some games on ABC.) Not so long ago, MNF would have been more likely to open the season with a game like Texans-Ravens than Bills-Jets, a matchup pitting an AFC power against the most-hyped team of the offseason. MNF also had a strong opener last season, averaging 19.8 million for Russell Wilson’s Denver debut against his old team in Seattle. That is a high bar to clear, but given the circumstances one should expect an increase.
— NFL Monday Night Football: Bills-Jets (8:15p Mon ABC, ESPN, ESPN2). Prediction: 21.01M.
Expect a multi-year high for Gauff’s first US Open final
It is easy to forget just how young Coco Gauff actually is — younger than generational peers Angel Reese, Olivia Dunne and Ben Shelton — because she emerged so long ago. Gauff became a household name in 2019, before COVID, making the round of 16 at Wimbledon the same year Roger Federer and Serena Williams last made the final there. Four years later, she is poised to become the face of American tennis in the wake of Williams’ retirement, one win shy of becoming just the second American to win the US Open since Williams’ last victory at the event in 2014.
Ratings for the Open have unsurprisingly declined from last year, when Williams’ swan song took center stage and fueled unusually strong viewership for the first week of play. The tournament will no doubt finish down double-digits, but having Gauff in the final will be a solid consolation prize for ESPN. Viewership will easily outpace Iga Swiatek’s win over Ons Jabeur last year, a pairing that only tennis aficionados would appreciate, and could well rank as the highest since Williams’ last final in 2019. It would have to surpass the unlikely 2021 final between Emma Raducanu and Leylah Fernandez, which averaged 2.7 million.
— US Open women’s final: Coco Gauff-Aryna Sabalenka (4p Sat ESPN). Prediction: 3.13M.
The men’s competition at the US Open has been building to another showdown between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. Instead, it will be Djokovic against Daniil Medvedev in what shapes up on paper as a major letdown. Medvedev beat Djokovic and denied him a calendar Grand Slam two years ago, but this is nonetheless a matchup that figures to leave casual fans cold. If the match is at least competitive, expect viewership to surpass last year’s 2.15 million for Alcaraz’ three-set win over Casper Ruud.
— US Open men’s final: Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev (4p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 2.24M.
Will Deion’s Buffaloes move the needle again?
The question last week was whether viewers would tune into a college football game involving a low-profile program just because of the coach. The answer was a definitive yes, as more than seven million watched Deion Sanders‘ debut as coach of the long-irrelevant Colorado Buffaloes. Sanders and company figure to boost the FOX “Big Noon Saturday” window for a second-straight week when they play their home opener against Nebraska, another once-proud program hoping to turn things around under a new coach.
It is safe to expect another strong audience, though not strong enough to match Texas-Alabama — this year or last. The same window last year featured the Longhorns’ near-upset of Alabama, which averaged 10.6 million. Those teams meet again in primetime on ESPN Saturday, a game that figures to rank as the most-watched of the week.
— College football: Nebraska-#22 Colorado (Noon Sat FOX). Prediction: 5.75M.
— College football: #11 Texas-#3 Alabama (7p Sat ESPN). Prediction: 6.18M.
Additional predictions
Another World Cup, another disappointing United States exit. The stakes are far lower in the basketball World Cup than in women’s soccer, owing to the fact that the real competition is the Olympics. So too are the ratings. Even if the U.S. had advanced to the final, there would not have been much of an audience for Sunday morning’s final.
— FIBA World Cup Final: Germany-Serbia (8:30 am Sun ESPN2). Prediction: 174K.
Previous games
— CFB: LSU-FSU. Prediction: 5.2, 9.03M; result: 4.7, 9.17M
— CFB: West Virginia-Penn State. Prediction: 2.5, 4.42M; result: 1.8, 3.50M
— CFB: Ohio State-Indiana. Prediction: 3.0, 5.25M; result: 2.3, 4.65M
— CFB: Colorado-TCU. Prediction: 2.0, 3.61M; result: 3.8, 7.26M
— US Open: round of 16 (ABC). Prediction: 2.02M; result: 2.05M
— MLB: Yankees-Astros. Prediction: 1.29M; result: 1.29M
