Ratings predictions for another big college football showdown, another marquee primetime NFL matchup and the MLB League Championship Series.
Expect Penn State-Ohio State to continue college football’s ratings bonanza
College football is having a strong season in the ratings, just in time for a slew of changes that will alter the look and feel of the sport going forward. The Pac-12 in particular has experienced a ratings resurgence fueled by, but not limited to, Colorado – which set in motion the conference’s ultimate collapse by announcing a move to the Big 12 this summer. The collapse of the Pac-12, and resulting dispersal of its various teams into ill-fitting conferences, may not even be the most significant makeover next season. It is the expansion of the playoff from four teams to twelve that could affect the significance of the regular season – the most relevant regular season in American sports – and reduce the stakes of any given game.
In seeking to fix that which is not broken, those in charge of college football (and college sports generally) are jeopardizing the proverbial golden goose. The counterargument is that the sport is so popular that it can withstand any number of short-sighted decisions. That very well may be true. One need only look at ESPN, which is in its first season without the Big Ten, is still a year off from its new, expanded SEC rights deal, and yet is on pace for its most-watched campaign in seven years. One should never take good fortune for granted, but perhaps it is the case that the college football formula is durable enough to withstand all of the changes. That theory will certainly be put to the test next season.
In the meantime, the good times figure to continue. Saturday marks the biggest game of the Big Ten season, a top-ten matchup of rivals Penn State and Ohio State. Already this season, 11 games have averaged at least seven million viewers (exceeding last year’s full regular season total of ten). There is little doubt Penn State-Ohio State will be the 12th. Their meeting last season averaged 8.27 million.
CFB: #7 Penn State – #3 Ohio State. Prediction: 9.79M viewers.
When Alabama played Tennessee last season, it was a top-ten matchup that went down to the wire and averaged 11.56 million viewers — more than any game so far this season. Despite their modest #11 ranking, the one-loss Tide are still very much a playoff contender. Another close game against the Vols is unlikely to deliver like last year’s game did, but it should still average a big number nonetheless.
CFB: #17 Tennessee – #11 Alabama. Prediction: 7.75M.
NFL should get another strong primetime audience for Dolphins-Eagles
Perhaps it can be attributed to the ongoing Hollywood shutdown, but NFL ratings have been particularly strong in primetime this season. Amazon’s Thursday Night Football has increased every week. ESPN’s Monday Night Football is regularly hitting decade-plus highs thanks to additional ABC simulcasts. Three NBC games this season have averaged at least 24 million viewers per Nielsen, compared to just one all of last year – on Thanksgiving night.
Expect the good times to continue on Sunday night, when the 5-1 Dolphins face the 5-1 Eagles. Miami has gained a reputation as one of the league’s most entertaining teams, having scored 70 points in a game earlier this year, and defending NFC champion Philadelphia just last week played in the most-watched game of the season (per Nielsen).
Barring an all-out rout, expect another big audience and a dramatic increase over last year’s comparable Steelers-Dolphins game (15.53M).
NFL Sunday Night Football: Dolphins-Eagles. Prediction: 24.03M (Nielsen), 25.9M (including NBC’s streaming viewership, which is measured by Adobe Analytics).
The defending champion Chiefs will be a draw with or without any extra off-the-field attention, but certainly their drawing power has been a bit extra pronounced in recent weeks. Expect this week’s matchup against the Chargers to boost the CBS national window to a solid increase over last year, when most of the country got Chiefs-49ers (22.29M).
NFL national window: mostly Chiefs-Chargers. Prediction: 24.01M
What to expect as baseball’s LCS both go long
Until Friday, the MLB Postseason had done little to counter the “baseball is boring” crowd, littered with blowouts and uncompetitive series. That changed with a hit-by-pitch in the Astros-Rangers series that created the first real friction of the postseason and was immediately followed by a three-run, ninth-inning home run by Houston to steal a third-straight road game. Now the Astros head back to Houston, hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2019 World Series – when they lost the first two at home, won three in a row on the road, and then lost the next two at home. Baseball and TV executives, on the other hand, should be very much hoping for a 2019 redux. Game 6, airing exclusively on FS1, will get crushed by Dolphins-Eagles Sunday night. A potential Game 7, however, would air on both FOX and FS1 and face a potential Monday Night Football mismatch between the 5-1 49ers and the 2-4 Vikings.
MLB ALCS: Rangers-Astros Game 6 (8p Sun FS1) and potentially Game 7 (8p Mon, FOX and FS1). Predictions: 3.99M and 7.98M.
As for the NLCS, Phillies-Diamondbacks did not look like it would be a competitive series after Philadelphia’s 10-0 Game 2 win, and yet Arizona is in position to take a 3-2 lead back to Philadelphia with a win Saturday night. (The more games the better, but make no mistake – the difference between the Phillies in the World Series and the Diamondbacks in the World Series is not trivial.) Last year’s NLCS Game 5 aired midday on an NFL Sunday and averaged 3.61 million. This year’s game will easily top that, especially as there are no particularly formidable college football games set for Saturday night.
MLB NLCS: Phillies-Diamondbacks Game 5 (8p Sat, TBS, truTV). Prediction: 5.51M.
Previous predictions
— NFL Sunday Night Football: Cowboys-49ers. Prediction 25.27M (Nielsen); result: 24.29M
— NFL national window: Chiefs-Vikings or Jets-Broncos. Prediction: 22.12M; result: 23.13M
— MLB ALDS Game 1: Rangers-Orioles. Prediction: 2.20M: result: 1.94M
— MLB ALDS Game 1: Twins-Astros. Prediction: 2.42M; result: 2.49M
— MLB NLDS Game 1: Phillies-Braves. Prediction: 2.98M; result: 3.84M
— MLB NLDS Game 1: Diamondbacks-Dodgers. Prediction: 2.84M; result: 2.07M
— CFB: Oklahoma-Texas. Prediction: 7.56M; result: 7.31M
— WNBA Finals Game 1: Liberty-Aces. Prediction: 672K; result: 729K
