Ratings predictions and analysis for the World Series and more. Much has been said about World Series ratings, but why are the expectations so low for Rangers-Diamondbacks?
Why World Series ratings will likely be low this year
Discussions of World Series ratings have been unnecessarily vitriolic thus far, particularly as there are no reliable numbers yet (Game 1 figures will be available Monday). While some of that can be attributed to the nature of social media, it can also be attributed to the value judgment ratings discussions imply.
It is no coincidence that the lowest rated series always seem to be a drag on the field. In the past 20 years, six World Series have hit all-time viewership lows: White Sox-Astros in 2005 (17.16M), Cardinals-Tigers in 2006 (15.81M), Phillies-Rays in 2008 (13.64M), Giants-Tigers in 2012 (12.66M) and Dodgers-Rays in the 2020 “bubble” (9.95M). With the exception of the “bubble” (six games), each of those World Series lasted just four or five games. Two (2006 and 2008) included at least one rain postponement. One (the “bubble”) was played in a mostly fanless, neutral site. To say that the ratings are going to be poor for this year’s Rangers-Diamondbacks series is thus to place it in the company of forgettable, often boring series even before a single game has been played. It is no surprise that the fanbases take umbrage.
To be sure, low ratings can be used as a cudgel to discredit a team, league or event one does not particularly like, whether Astros or Phillies fans diminishing the current World Series matchup or any number of culture warriors reveling in every real or exaggerated dip in NBA ratings. The causes, however, are nothing personal.
Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball ratings are influenced by history and tradition. Not just that of the Yankees, but the Red Sox, Dodgers and Cubs. One could look at that list and say, “these are just big market teams” — but so are the Rangers, who hail from the nation’s #5 market Dallas-Ft. Worth. The Rangers and Diamondbacks have both played in classic, seven-game World Series, but lack the kind of rich, decades-long history that is difficult to achieve in sports (and impossible for a 25-year-old team like Arizona).
Absent “mystique and aura,” one wants to feature a matchup of the best teams in the regular season, or something close to it. This World Series is a matchup of #5 and #6 seeds. Arizona and Texas are obviously the best teams of the postseason, but in general one wants the championship to be somewhat indicative of what the regular season was building toward. There has never been an NBA Finals in which both teams were seeded fifth or lower. The Stanley Cup Final had one relatively recently, when the #8 seeded Kings faced the #6 seeded Devils in 2012. That series was not exactly a ratings bonanza.
If one’s bracket must be busted, then the ideal scenario is to feature a true underdog — a team that has absolutely no business on the big stage and has made it to the mountaintop thanks to a run of magical, miraculous moments. Arizona and Texas may not have been dominant teams during the regular season (though Texas had its moments), but their postseason runs have been merely unexpected, not the stuff of miracles. These are simply good teams that have made unexpectedly deep runs, nothing more or less.
In the absence of all of the above, at the very least one wants good games. On Friday night, the Rangers and Diamondbacks delivered with an extra-inning, walk-off classic. Saturday night was a different story as Arizona romped to a 9-1 victory. This series will need more of the former and less of the latter as the scene shifts to Arizona Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
All of the factors mentioned so far have focused on the participating teams, but there are of course many others that can impact the numbers. One of them is the National Football League. The World Series will never fully be able to avoid the NFL, but last year’s shift to a Friday start means that the Fall Classic can avoid the rigors of an NFL Sunday. Games will now go head-to-head with Monday Night Football instead, a prospect that looked far less daunting before ABC began simulcasting MNF every week. The MNF effect was in full display last week, when Game 7 of the ALCS averaged just 6.8 million opposite 49ers-Vikings, about two million fewer viewers than Game 7 of the NLCS the following day.
Early indications are that Games 1 and 2 of the Fall Classic will live down to expectations. Game 3, owing in part to the competition, probably will as well. (Last year’s Game 3 averaged 11.16 million on a Tuesday night.) That leaves Games 4, 5 and (if baseball is fortunate) 6 and 7 for this series to avoid some historical depths.
World Series Game 3: Rangers-Diamondbacks (8:03p Mon FOX). Prediction: 9.02M.
Predictions for Week 8 of the NFL season
The Chiefs have been moving the needle ever since Patrick Mahomes rose to prominence, but especially so in the past month. Kansas City is back in their usual 4:25 PM ET slot this week, but in a rarity, their game against the Broncos will not be the featured game of the window. Most of the country gets 49ers-Bengals instead, in what shapes up as a pivotal matchup for both teams. With three of the league’s four most prominent teams on the schedule, it seems a solid bet that viewership will remain on the high side for a window that has topped 23 million viewers in each of the past six weeks. (That does not guarantee an increase; last year’s window averaged nearly 25 million.)
NFL national window: mostly 49ers-Bengals (4:25p Sun CBS). Prediction: 23.9M.
The NFL decided against flexing Bears-Chargers out of the Sunday Night Football slot this week, and while Chicago has not looked that bad the last three weeks, it seems likely that a new season-low is in store. The current mark is 16.71 million for Giants-Bills in week six.
NFL national window: Bears-Chargers (8:20p Sun NBC). Prediction: 15.09M.
How high will college volleyball rise on a record Sunday?
Already this season, college volleyball has scored two of its three largest regular season audiences — including last week’s all-time mark of 612,000 for the #1 vs. #2 Wisconsin-Nebraska match. That number will be obliterated on Sunday when FOX carries coverage adjacent to its NFL singleheader, marking the first regular season matches on over-the-air television. The post-singleheader window is one of the most ratings-rich in all of sports television, allowing lesser events like professional bowling and bull-riding to generate the kind of seven-figure audiences they rarely receive otherwise.
This week should give volleyball a particularly good lead-in as a whopping 76% of markets receive an early game on FOX (including Rams-Cowboys in 42%), followed by Wisconsin-Minnesota. (The 24% of markets that receive the late Browns-Seahawks game will instead see Ohio State-Michigan on FOX at 2 PM ET).
That Sunday’s window will set an all-time regular season record is not in doubt. The question is whether it will challenge national championship matches, such as the 2021 final that averaged more than 1.1 million.
Women’s college volleyball: Wisconsin-Minnesota (4:45p Sun FOX/FS2) or Ohio State-Michigan (2p Sun FOX/FS2). Prediction: 1.16M
Last week’s predictions
— CFB: Penn State-Ohio State. Prediction: 9.79M; result: 9.96M.
— CFB: Tennessee-Alabama. Prediction: 7.75M; result: 8.01M.
— NFL: Dolphins-Eagles. Prediction: 24.03M; result: 20.61M.
— NFL: mostly Chiefs-Chargers. Prediction: 24.01M; result: 24.38M.
— MLB: Rangers-Astros Game 6. Prediction: 3.99M; result: 4.77M.
— MLB: Rangers-Astros Game 7. Prediction: 7.98M; result: 6.77M.
— MLB: Phillies-Diamondbacks Game 5. Prediction: 5.51M; result: 4.70M.
